Event

On March 1, 2023, the company released the 2022 annual report, which showed that the operating income in 2022 was 236 million yuan, an increase of 5687% over the same period last year; the net profit was 143 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-return was 102 million yuan.

Business analysis

The first full commercial year of paclitaxel for injection is rapid. (1) the company's core product paclitaxel polymer micelles for injection was approved in 2021 for first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. The product is based on the traditional paclitaxel dosage form innovation, through the unique polymer synthesis technology, exclusive research and development with natural paclitaxel active ingredients, very narrow distribution coefficient of medicinal excipients, the use of nanotechnology (about 18-20nm) made of exclusive paclitaxel innovative dosage form, with 2.2 innovative drugs approved to market. (2) the company's sales model is mainly self-supporting, and some designated areas entrust Baiyang Pharmaceutical to carry out commercial promotion.

By the end of 2022, the company has successfully set up the network in 27 provinces and cities across the country, and its sales mainly come from DTP pharmacies outside the hospital, and its own sales team has more than 120 people. (3) at the end of the business, 2022 was the first full commercial year of paclitaxel micelles, with annual sales of 235 million yuan, an increase of 5,687 percent over the same period last year. On the cost side, due to the increase in the cost of the corresponding commercial promotion work after the listing of paclitaxel micelles, the sales cost in 2022 was 89.03 million yuan, an increase of 3741% compared with the same period last year. Because other products in the pipeline are still in the early stage of research and development, the overall R & D expenditure in 2022 is lower than that in 2021, and the R & D expenditure in 2022 is 7.93 million yuan, which is 40% lower than that in the same period last year. At the profit end, the company made a profit in 2022, a net profit of 143 million yuan in 2022 and a net loss of 4 million yuan in 2021.

Paclitaxel, a broad-spectrum antineoplastic drug, has better efficacy and more room for permeability improvement.

The main results are as follows: (1) Paclitaxel is the most widely used broad-spectrum tumor chemotherapeutic drug at present. According to the data of PDB sample hospital, the market size of paclitaxel is 2.1 billion yuan in 2021 and 1.4 billion yuan in 2022. Paclitaxel ranks first in the market scale of antineoplastic plant drugs. (2) more than 20 items of nano-paclitaxel micelles are under study and indications are expanding.

Paclitaxel is a broad-spectrum tumor chemotherapeutic drug. In addition to the approved indications for lung cancer, the company is exploring the therapeutic potential of breast cancer, gastric cancer, pancreatic cancer, ovarian cancer and other cancers. According to WHO data, there are 48,000, 42,12,000 and 60,000 new cases of gastric cancer, breast cancer, pancreatic cancer and ovarian cancer in China in 2020, respectively. There is still a lot of room for improvement in the patient base of nano-paclitaxel micelles.

Earnings forecast, valuation and rating

We maintain our profit forecast and expect revenue of 4981,860 million yuan in 2023 for 24 years and 1.353 billion yuan for 2025, and net profit of 303 pounds for 2023-24-25. Maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk hint

Risks such as dependence on a single product, less than expected commercialization, and rapid technological change in the field of drug delivery system innovation.