投资建议：公司公 告2022 年营收 9.52 亿/+26.67%，归母净利 9417 万/-14.40%，22Q4 单季营收2.50 亿/+20.79%/环比+6.59%；归母净利434 万/-79.82%/环比-86.94%，低于市场预期，下调2022-24 年EPS 至0.62（-0.16）、1.20（-0.20）、1.63（-0.39）元，考虑23 年公司新品放量盈利改善，按2023年47 倍PE 估值不变，下调目标价至56.40 元（-9.74）元，增持评级。This report is read as follows:
The profit in 2022 is lower than market expectations, which is due to the pressure on the profit margin caused by the epidemic and the expansion of lithium customers; the increase in the penetration of new products with high gross margin in 2023 is expected to improve profitability; the share of major customers continues to increase, and orders remain strong.
Main points of investment:
Investment suggestion: the company reported 2022 revenue 952 million / + 26.67%, return to the mother net profit 94.17 million /-14.40% dint 22Q4 single-quarter revenue 250 million / + 20.79% / month + 6.59% The net profit of returning to the mother is 4.34 million /-79.82% / month-on-month-86.94%, which is lower than market expectations. The EPS for 2022-24 is reduced to RMB 0.62,1.20,1.63 (- 0.39). Considering the improvement of the company's new product volume profit in 23 years, the target price will remain unchanged at 47 times PE in 2023, and the target price will be reduced to RMB 56.40 (- 9.74) to increase the holding rating.
The profit margin caused by the epidemic and the expansion of lithium power customers is under pressure, and the rapid penetration of new products contributes to the improvement of profits. The 22-year company's return net interest rate 9.89%/-4.75pct, among which 22Q4 single-quarter return net interest rate 1.73%/-8.65pct/-12.41pct, originates from: 1) reducing prices for customers to expand the lithium power industry; 2) December production is greatly affected by the liberalization of the epidemic. Considering that the new servo products X4 and X5 have been shipped in 22Q4, the gross profit margin is higher than that of the previous generation products by more than 5pct, and the final permeability of 23H1 is expected to reach 80-90%. At the same time, with the increase in the proportion of medium and large PLC, we predict that the gross profit margin will continue to improve in 23.
Self-developed integrated industrial control chips and magnetic / optical encoders, in-depth manufacturing to ensure product competitiveness. The company's self-developed main control chip is expected to bring an increase in gross profit margin above 5pct, and self-made magnetic / optical encoders with an accuracy of 25 bits, comparable to overseas brands. At the same time, the company has the deep manufacturing ability from raw materials to finished products. In 22 years, about 70% of the company's products are processed by their own CNC machine tools, which has a significant cost advantage.
Customized services help companies quickly cut into major customers and maintain a strong momentum of receiving orders. The company continues to focus on high-quality customers with large terminals, such as lithium power for Ningde, BYD, forerunner, etc.; photovoltaic for Jie Jia Weichuang, Mai Wei shares, Aotevi, etc.; robot suppliers such as Sida, Xinshida, Evert, etc., with the increasing share of key customers under customized services, we expect the company's 23Q1 orders to show positive year-on-year and month-on-month growth.
Risk hints: sharp macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected new product development, and intensified market competition
