Founder Securities performance is consistent with performance forecast.
The company's 2022 revenue ranged from-10% to 7.78 billion yuan, net profit from home + 18% to 2.15 billion yuan, and ROAE from + 0.6ppt to 5.09%, in line with the performance forecast, with a leverage ratio of + 0.1x to 3.5x. Under the market fluctuation in 2022, the company's performance grew against the market. The company's shareholders are reorganized and landed, with Ping An Insurance, the Social Security Fund and China Cinda as the top three shareholders, which are expected to achieve full empowerment. In addition, the company's long-term operating efficiency continues to improve, with an average annual decline in management fees of 2ppt to 66% in 2018-22.
Wealth management is expected to become an engine of other business growth. In 2022, the company's wealth management income was-15% to 5.4 billion yuan, accounting for-4ppt to 70%. 1) the net income of agency buying and selling is-19% to 3.2 billion yuan (vs. Stock-based ADT year-on-year), the company added nearly 1.6 million customers, market share + 2.7ppt to 6.7%. 2) Wealth Management value-added business 1 has an income of 1.1 billion yuan, accounting for 21% of the revenue. 2016-22 CAGR21%. Among them, the amount of assets contracted for investment is + 3% to 101.4 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and the retention scale of financial products sold on consignment is + 6% to 85.7 billion yuan year on year. 3) the net interest income of the company is-14% to 1.8 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, the scale of the two financing at the end of the period is + 2% to 27.4 billion yuan, and the share is + 0.3ppt to 1.8%.
The financing channels of the company are gradually opened, and the new financing costs in 2022 are lower than the same period last year (100bps). As the largest business, the company's wealth management has obvious advantages, and we expect to promote the development of other businesses.
The investment and trading business structure is diversified, and the non-directional business is developing rapidly. Year-on-year investment and trading income in 2022-26% to 900 million yuan, accounting for year-on-year-3ppt to 11%. 1) transactional financial assets range from + 49% to 37 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. In market fluctuations, companies optimize asset allocation and increase the proportion of fixed-income assets. In 2022, the income of fixed income investment is 1.1 billion yuan (the rate of return is 13%), the loss of equity investment is 60 million yuan, and the corresponding rate of return on financial assets is + 0.4ppt to 3.6% compared with the same period last year. 2) in the non-directional business, the income from bond sales and trading is + 74% to 66.07 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the scale of stock sales business is 8.2 billion yuan; in the market-making business, the number of company funds making market is + 64% to 498 yuan; in the derivatives business, the nominal principal of income swaps is + 192% to 7.7 billion yuan, and the nominal principal of over-the-counter options is + 212% to 3.2 billion yuan.
The asset management business has improved steadily, and the investment banking business has grown substantially. 1) the revenue of the asset management division of the company in 2022 is + 9% to 780 million yuan, accounting for + 3ppt to 10% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the asset management income of securities firms is-10% to 230 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the non-cargo base scale of founder Fubon is + 12% to 23.6 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. 2) the revenue of the investment bank segment is + 45% to 500 million yuan compared with the same period last year, accounting for + 2ppt to 7% compared with the same period last year, of which the IPO scale is + 190% to 4.4 billion yuan and the share is + 0.7ppt to 0.7%.
Profit forecast and valuation
We basically maintain the profit forecast of 2.8 billion yuan in 2023 and introduce the profit forecast of 3.2 billion yuan in 2024.
The current share price corresponds to 2023Universe 24e 1.3Compact 1.2x Ppicurb. Maintain the neutral rating and target price of 7.96 yuan, corresponding to 2023Universe 24e 1.4Compact 1.3x PUnix B, which has 14% upside compared to the current share price.
Risk
Market volatility risk, regulatory policy uncertainty, business development is not as expected.