智通财经APP获悉，东莞证券发布研究报告称，全球碳中和目标引领下新能源汽车保有量快速增长，市场渗透率仍将持续攀升。加快完善充换电基础设施配套建设，有助于支撑新能源汽车产业高质量发展。国家相关部门正在加强充电基础设施产业发展顶层设计，将持续优化充电网络规划布局和建设。同时，伴随着新能源汽车销量快速增长，欧美充电桩市场处于爆发初期，需求将迎来显著放量。国内桩企加速出海布局，有望凭借高性价比优势享受全球充电桩行业快速发展红利。
东莞证券主要观点如下：
国内新能源车快速增长驱动配套设施提速发展。
2022年国内新能源汽车保有量达1310万辆，预计2023年将达2100万辆，到2025年将增加至4000万辆。电动汽车的充电需求不断增大，加快充电桩等配套基础设施建设已迫在眉睫。近年来充电桩产业政策不断推出，要求大力推动充换电网络建设。2022年全国新增充电桩259.3万台，保有量为521万台，同比增长99.07%，车桩比为2.5。假设到2025年车桩比下行至2，则距离当前有约1500万台的缺口。
海外市场前景广阔，国内企业加速出海。
随着欧美新能源汽车销量快速增长，充电桩配套建设需求旺盛。根据IEA统计，2021年欧洲公共车桩比达15:1，美国公共车桩比达18:1，远落后于国内水平。当前欧美新能源汽车市场配套基础设施建设明显不足，在政策推动下各国有望加快发展，海外充电桩需求显著放量。国内充电桩企业正在加速海外市场布局，相较于欧美本土充电桩企业，更具有性价比优势。
高压快充已为大势所趋。
充电便利性和缩短充电时长是解决新能源汽车发展的痛点之一。快充技术加速应用对于推动新能源车快速发展至关重要。目前各国政策从顶层设计积极推动快充技术发展，未来快充桩占比有望逐步提高。高压快充技术是目前车企实现快充的主流选择，800V高压平台车型将于2023年陆续上市，前景可期。
建议关注：
1)提高补能效率、赋能新能源汽车产业快速发展的快充和换电赛道，高压快充渐成主流，具备大功率充电技术储备的核心设备供应商，以及积极布局换电模式的公司将受益于充换电市场规模扩容。
2)已通过欧美标准认证、销售渠道布局广泛，在快充领域具备核心技术优势的国内桩企有望率先受益海外市场放量。重点标的关注核心设备供应商国电南瑞(600406.SH)、许继电气(000400.SZ)、万马股份(002276.SZ)，受益换电站规划落地首先起量的充换电装备领先制造商瀚川智能(688022.SH)。
风险提示：新能源汽车销量不及预期风险;国内充换电基础设施建设不及预期;国内桩企出海不及预期;市场竞争加剧风险。
Zitong Financial APP learned that Dongguan Securities released a research report saying that the global goal of carbon neutralization led by the rapid growth of the number of new energy vehicles, market penetration will continue to rise. Speeding up the improvement of charging and recharging infrastructure will help to support the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry. The relevant state departments are strengthening the top-level design of the development of the charging infrastructure industry, and will continue to optimize the planning, layout and construction of the charging network. At the same time, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, the European and American charging pile market is in the early stage of the outbreak, the demand will usher in a significant volume. Domestic pile enterprises accelerate the layout of the sea, and are expected to enjoy the rapid development dividend of the global charging pile industry by virtue of the cost-effective advantage.
The main points of Dongguan Securities are as follows:
The rapid growth of domestic new energy vehicles drives the development of supporting facilities.
The number of new energy vehicles in China reached 13.1 million in 2022, is expected to reach 21 million in 2023, and will increase to 40 million by 2025. The charging demand of electric vehicles is increasing, so it is urgent to speed up the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging piles. In recent years, the charging pile industry policy has been continuously introduced, which requires to vigorously promote the construction of charging network. In 2022, 2.593 million new charging piles were added nationwide, with a total of 5.21 million, an increase of 99.07 percent over the same period last year, with a vehicle-to-pile ratio of 2.5. Assuming that the vehicle-pile ratio goes down to 2 by 2025, there will be a gap of about 15 million sets at present.
There are broad prospects for overseas markets, and domestic enterprises are speeding up to go out to sea.
With the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales in Europe and the United States, there is a strong demand for charging pile construction. According to IEA statistics, the European bus pile Prida 15:1, the United States bus pile Prida 18:1, far behind the domestic level. At present, the construction of supporting infrastructure in the new energy vehicle market in Europe and the United States is obviously insufficient, and countries are expected to speed up development under the promotion of policies, and the demand for overseas charging piles is significantly increased. Domestic charging pile enterprises are accelerating the layout of overseas markets. Compared with the local charging pile enterprises in Europe and America, they have more cost-effective advantages.
High voltage fast charging has become the trend of the times.
The convenience of charging and shortening the charging time is one of the pain points to solve the development of new energy vehicles. The accelerated application of fast charging technology is very important to promote the rapid development of new energy vehicles. At present, the policies of various countries actively promote the development of fast filling technology from the top-level design, and the proportion of fast filling piles is expected to increase gradually in the future. At present, high-voltage fast charging technology is the mainstream choice for automobile companies to realize fast charging. 800V high-voltage platform models will be launched one after another in 2023, and the prospect is promising.
Recommended concerns are as follows:
1) the fast charging and recharging track that improves energy replenishment efficiency and empowers the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, high-voltage fast charging has gradually become the mainstream, and core equipment suppliers with high-power charging technology reserves, as well as companies that actively layout the replacement mode will benefit from the expansion of the charging market.
2) domestic pile companies which have passed the European and American standard certification and have a wide distribution of sales channels are expected to be the first to benefit from overseas market volume. Focus on the core equipment suppliers Guodian Nanrui (600406.SH), Xu Ji Electric (000400.SZ), Wanma (002276.SZ), benefit from the planning of the first landing of the leading manufacturer of rechargeable equipment 688022.SH.
Risk Tips:The sales of new energy vehicles fall short of the expected risk; the construction of domestic recharging infrastructure is not as expected; domestic pile enterprises go out to sea less than expected; market competition aggravates the risk.
