22Q4 实现营业收入0.78 亿元，同比下降14.0%，我们判断主要受22Q4 疫情管控趋严后的全面放开，员工呈现大面积感染，造成CDMO 项目交付延期等因素影响；另外22Q4 扣非净利润为0.04亿元，同比下降82.1%，在收入端延迟交付的基础上，公司为临港产业基地提前储备员工也在一定程度上影响利润端表现。展望未来，基于供给端临港产能释放日益临近，叠加需求端在手订单充足，我们判断未来几年公司将持续受益于CGT CDMO 赛道的高景气度呈现高速增长的趋势。Overview of events
The company announced its performance in 2022, KuaiBao, whose annual operating income was 294 million yuan, up 15.17 percent from the same period last year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 24.59 percent from the same period last year, and deducting 33 million yuan from non-net profit, down 20.32 percent from the same period last year.
22Q4 performance is affected by the delay in CDMO project confirmation caused by the deregulation of the epidemic. Looking forward to the future performance is expected to return to rapid growth.
The operating income of 22Q4 reached 78 million yuan, down 14.0% from the same period last year. We judged that it was mainly affected by the overall liberalization after the stricter control of the 22Q4 epidemic, employees showed a large area of infection, resulting in the delay of CDMO project delivery and other factors. In addition, the non-net profit deducted by 22Q4 was 4 million yuan, down 82.1% from the same period last year. On the basis of delayed delivery at the revenue end, the company's reserve of employees in advance for the port industrial base also affected the profit side performance to a certain extent. Looking to the future, based on the supply-side port capacity release approaching, superimposed demand-side on-hand orders are sufficient, we judge that the company will continue to benefit from the CGT CDMO track high-speed growth trend in the next few years.
Continue to strengthen business capacity building, with 23 years of new capacity put into production performance is expected to restore rapid growth
The company continues to strengthen the layout of CDMO business in oncolytic virus, AAV gene therapy, cell therapy and other business areas, while developing new CDMO services such as stem cells, NK cells and mRNA, laying the foundation for future medium-and long-term performance growth. In addition, according to the company's mid-2022 report, the new production capacity in Shanghai near Hong Kong raised by the company's IPO is expected to be gradually put into production in 2023, strengthening the company's capacity supply capacity, and with the establishment of the company's US subsidiaries to actively expand domestic and foreign markets, we judge that high-speed growth is expected to gradually resume in the future.
Investment suggestion
Taking into account the disturbance caused by the epidemic and the reserve of talents in advance for the follow-up new production capacity and other factors, we lowered the company's revenue forecast for 2022-2024 from 345 million yuan to 439 million yuan, and the net profit to its mother was reduced from 0.71 billion yuan to 0.41 billion yuan. The adjusted EPS is 0.140.19 yuan per share, corresponding to the closing price of 21.12 yuan per share on February 23, 2023, and the PE is 148.44 cents per share, respectively. Taking into account the optimistic long-term development of the company, there is more room for growth, the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk hint
The risk of core technology backbone and management loss, the risk of intensified competition, the risk of novel coronavirus epidemic affecting business development, and the risk of regulatory policy change in the field of gene therapy.
