Authors: Cheng Xiangqi, Chen Huaishan, Tao Yi
Source: CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD study
The annual report of new forces and the new catalysis of Tesla, Inc. investors' daily market
The weakening demand, pattern and profit expectations are the core factors that suppress the automobile sector market. Since the beginning of the year, the domestic automobile boom is still weak, and the wait-and-see mood of end consumers is heavy (car companies' price cuts and new policy expectations). But the demand for new energy vehicles has begun to pick up, and BYD, ideal and Tesla, Inc. have performed strongly. The current plate is expected to be bottomed out, and the accelerated launch of new models is expected to promote the expected repair of the economy. Next week, we should pay close attention to the new forces and major events of Tesla, Inc.: 1) ideal and NIO Inc. plan to release financial results for 2022 at 2.27,3.1 EST, respectively. Among them, the ideal Q4 delivered 46300 vehicles, which is in line with the Q3 financial reporting guidelines (4.5-48000). It is expected that the current period may produce a profit inflection point. NIO Inc. delivered 40100 Q4 vehicles, + 60% year-on-year, lower than the Q3 financial reporting target (4.3-48000). 2) Tesla, Inc. plans to disclose the third chapter of the company's grand plan on investors' Day, covering the details of the new generation vehicle platform, and the potential new technology applications such as integrated die casting, 4D millimeter wave radar and intelligent driving have attracted market attention.
Business tracking: domestic passenger car production and sales are under pressure in January, and new energy vehicle demand picks up in February
Traffic insurance weekly caliber, February 13-February 19, 2023, the total number of domestic passenger cars on the license plate 308000, year-on-year-11.7%, month-on-month + 8.7%. Among them, the total number of fuel vehicles is 207000, year-on-year-24.2%, month-on-month ratio + 4.8%; new energy vehicles total 101000, year-on-year + 34.0%, month-on-month ratio + 17.5%, permeability reaches 32.7%. The decline in domestic passenger car sales in January may be mainly due to the rush to install at the end of 22 years caused by the purchase tax relief and the cancellation of new energy subsidy policy in 2023, and the Spring Festival holiday was advanced from February to January, which disturbed the pace of current consumption. According to the monthly caliber of the China Automobile Association, the domestic production and sales of passenger vehicles in January were 1.397 million and 1.469 million respectively,-34.3% and-35.2% respectively compared with the same period last year, and-32.9% and-32.9% respectively compared with the same period last year, of which 408000 new energy vehicles were sold in January, down 6.3%.
Auto company tracking: the price of Model Y in China has been raised, and Qin Plus-dmi orders are hot
Tesla, Inc. disclosed that he received the strongest order in history after a price cut worldwide in January, and is now gradually verifying that the wholesale sales in China in January are about 66000 vehicles, which is + 10% compared with the same period last year. On February 10, the price of the rear wheel drive version of Model Y in China increased by 2,000 yuan, starting at 261900 yuan. On February 17, the price of the long-lasting version and high-performance version of Model Y increased by 2,000 yuan, with starting prices of 31.19 yuan and 361900 yuan, respectively. Li Auto Inc. held five flagship SUV L7 events on Feb. 8. The target customer group is a family of three. The new Air version is configured. The Air/Pro/ Max version is priced at 31.98 Universe 33.98 / 379800 yuan respectively, and delivery will begin in March. On February 10th, Qin PLUS DM-i 2023 Champion Edition was officially launched, with an official guidance price of 99800 yuan to 145800 yuan. The price of DM-i model fell below 100000 for the first time, with a cumulative order of 32000 in seven days on the market, including 25000 in five days on the market.
Investment suggestion: stand on the starting point of the new round of recovery market, should be gradually added at present
With the economic recovery in 2023, with the rebound of automobile demand, the continuation of structural growth momentum (electrification and exports) and the continuous increase in the market share of independent brands, the automobile sector is expected to stand on the market of a new round of recovery. The whole car recommends Li Auto Inc., BYD, Changan Automobile and other strong autonomy and new forces; spare parts recommend Sanhua Intelligence Control, Top Group, Chinachem Technology, Jifeng shares and Wen can shares and so on.
Risk Tips:The prosperity of the industry is not as expected; the competition pattern of the industry is deteriorating; the progress of customer expansion and mass production of new projects is not as expected.
Edit / irisz