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快克股份(603203)公司首次覆盖报告:电子装联龙头 迈向半导体封测设备解决方案供应商

First Coverage Report by Crack Co., Ltd. (603203): Electronic Assembly Leader Moves Towards Semiconductor Packaging and Testing Equipment Solution Provider

開源證券 ·  Feb 27, 2023 14:32  · Researches

The domestic electronic assembly federation leading enterprise, the semiconductor closed test equipment solution supplier company is the domestic electronic assembly equipment leading company, the net profit is growing for many years, the cash flow is abundant, the profit margin level outperforms the industry. Electronic assembly belongs to the secondary packaging of microelectronic packaging, and soldering is the core process of electronic assembly. The company's main precision soldering equipment is the world leader in the middle and high end market, with a gross profit margin as high as 55%. With the technology and customer advantages in the field of microelectronic packaging, we continue to break through the capacity circle and continue to realize our performance. First of all, the company extends the downstream application of precision welding to new energy, and the equipment is applied to IGBT power module welding, which has been recognized by many head customers. After that, the company cut up into the first-level packaging field of IGBT chips and SiC Mosfet chip packaging (the mainstream process is above 350nm), the vacuum eutectic furnace has achieved a small amount of sales, and nano-silver sintering equipment breaks the overseas monopoly. In the future, the company will continue to expand advanced packaging process equipment, more advanced process range of chip packaging equipment, open up long-term growth space. We forecast that the revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 89x1x1.95 billion yuan respectively, the net profit of return to the mother will be 2899900000 yuan, the EPS will be 1.16 / 1.54 / 2.22 yuan, and the current stock price will be 30.0 / 22.5 / 15.6 times of PE respectively. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.

Secondary packaging: the demand for IGBT is strong, selective wave soldering equipment has entered the fast lane from 1 → 10 release period of new energy vehicles and wind power photovoltaic development, the demand for IGBT power devices is high, and the localization rate of selective wave soldering of core welding equipment is only 20%. The company has successfully developed the equipment independently for 3 years, and has introduced a number of downstream head customers with strong desire to update the production line, and the revenue is expected to double in 2023. Depending on the stickiness of the related equipment, the point belt enables the visual inspection process and precision dispensing equipment to enter the new energy track, and at the same time enhance the customer stickiness.

First-level packaging: the capital expenditure of the silicon carbide industry is accelerated, the company's nano-silver sintering equipment from 0 → 1 to break through the chip package is the most advantageous link in the integrated circuit industry chain, the core equipment can be controlled independently is the trend of the times. Silicon carbide manufacturers dominated by San'an Optoelectronics have increased capital expenditure, bringing incremental demand for upstream equipment. The nano-silver sintering equipment independently developed by the company is the core equipment of silicon carbide packaging, which is expected to be sold in 2023 to achieve domestic replacement. In the future, high-speed crystal fixing machine, IGBT crystal fixing machine and flip chip crystal fixing machine for advanced packaging will be released one after another, and the company will take advantage of the wind of domestic substitution to accelerate its growth.

Risk tips: global semiconductor continuous cycle downward, semiconductor packaging equipment through customer verification, volume progress is not as expected, consumer electronics demand continues to be sluggish, macroeconomic fluctuations affect the demand for soldering equipment.

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