Events:
The company issued a profit warning and expected revenue of about 4.006 billion yuan in 2022, with a net profit of not less than 47 million yuan.
Comments:
In 2022, the company's revenue is about 40.06 billion yuan / yoy-4.2%, the net profit is not less than 0.47 billion yuan / yoy-86.2%, the decline in performance is mainly due to 1) the disturbance of the epidemic affects store operations, 2) the net foreign exchange loss is about 79 million yuan (17.89 million yuan for 21 years), excluding foreign exchange related effects, the performance is about 126 million yuan / yoy-61%.
Of this total, 22H1 achieved revenue of 1.899 billion yuan /-6.1%, net profit of 0.58 billion yuan /-69.0%, performance excluding foreign exchange influence of about 0.8 billion yuan /-57%, and foreign exchange loss of 22.84 million yuan in the first half (compared with 710000 yuan in the same period of the previous year). 22H2 realized revenue of about 2.707 billion yuan / yoy-2.4%, return net profit of not less than-11 million yuan (154 million yuan in the same period of the previous year), excluding foreign exchange influence of about 0.45 billion yuan /-67%, foreign exchange loss of 56.06 million yuan in the second half of the year (17.19 million yuan in the same period of the previous year).
In terms of shop opening, according to the narrow-door dining eye, in 2022, there are about 18 hot pots (15 for 22H1/H2) and 100 for Taier (65 for 22H1/H2).
The company has been closely monitoring the performance of the restaurant and adjusting its business strategy from time to time to reduce the impact of the epidemic on its business operations. To improve its operating performance, the company has implemented a number of cost-saving measures to reduce rents, the cost of raw materials and consumables used and other operating expenses. With the improvement of the business environment over the past 23 years, we are optimistic about the repair of the same store and the steady expansion of the store.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the core competitiveness of 99 Mao comes from the leading brand power of Taierping effect and the maintenance of high profits in the past two years, and the potential high elasticity comes from the possibility that the potential energy of the hot pot brand is higher than expected. It is estimated that the company's annual performance in 22-23-24 will be RMB 0.66 trillion (the previous forecast will be slightly lowered by RMB 2.1max 7.5pm, taking into account the repeated disturbances caused by the previous epidemic to the store opening process and the climbing of new stores). The current share price corresponds to a 24-year PE of 38max 26X, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the performance forecast is only a preliminary calculation result, please take the annual report as the standard, the epidemic repeatedly affects the same store performance and store opening progress, the new brand performance is less than expected risk, food safety and other risks.