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国泰君安:航空业疫后复苏已开启 航司盈利中枢上升确定

Guotai Junan: The recovery of the aviation industry after the epidemic has begun, and the rise in airline profit centers is certain

Zhitong Finance ·  Feb 21, 2023 10:36

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that China's aviation industry has begun to recover after the epidemic, and when the psychological construction of travel is completed, aviation demand will be fully released, which will not only be a profitable year, but also usher in China's "aviation supercycle". After the epidemic, the profit center of the Aviation Department has risen to determine that the sustainability of the high boom will exceed market expectations. A huge excess of expectations will produce significant excess returns, and the strategic layout opportunity is right now. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the aviation industry.

Investment advice:Maintain Air China Limited (601111.SH), auspicious Airlines (603885.SH), China Southern Airlines Company (600029.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), Spring Airlines (601021.SH) "overweight" rating.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

The long logic of "super cycle" of Hangguojun Airlines

The bank defines high profits in cyclical industries that last for 4-5 years or more as Supercycle. In theory, cyclical industries do not seem to have supercycles, so once they occur, the excess returns are significant. Looking back at the global shipping history of the past two decades, the bank has observed only two "supercycles", the 2004-08 commodity shipping supercycle driven by Chinese investment, and the 2013-19 aviation supercycle under the new normal of the US economy. The Guojun transportation team put forward the long logic of China's aviation "super cycle" for the first time in 2016-China's aviation consumption continues to infiltrate, and the bottleneck in the airspace is highlighted. Continuous improvement in supply and demand will eventually push the occupancy rate beyond the threshold. The profit center of China's aviation industry will rise significantly, and the sustainability of high profits will exceed market expectations.

The Enlightenment of American Airlines "Super cycle": it is the key to break through the threshold of occupancy rate

For a long time, the aviation industry has been regarded as "destructive value". In contrast to the traditional impression, there was a "supercycle" in the US aviation industry in 2013-19, in which not only the aviation department made rich returns, but also aviation stocks made significant excess returns. (1) stable return period (1948-1978): the US aviation industry is tightly regulated, similar to public utilities, and continues to make profits with few losses. (2) the stage of destructive value (1979-2012): the deregulation of the US aviation industry has become a completely competitive industry. The occupancy rate continues to rise, but there is still a surplus as a whole, and the profit margin of the industry fluctuates violently around the zero axis. (3) Super cycle (2013-2019): the occupancy rate broke through the threshold, the profit margin center of the industry rose to an all-time high, the aviation department continued to have a high ROE, and the stock price rose by 3.3 times.

The bottleneck of CAAC's airspace is highlighted all the time, and the epidemic will welcome the super cycle of China's aviation.

Aviation is still the most biased industry in the capital market, which has exceeded expectations for a long time, and the current investment value is prominent. The great logic of aviation is not only the short logic of "post-epidemic supply and demand mismatch profit year", but also the long logic of "aviation super cycle". On the demand side, China's aviation consumption penetration is still very low, and the epidemic has not changed the long-term growth momentum and structure of demand. On the supply side, China's aviation industry has a rare long-standing airspace bottleneck. The bottleneck in the airspace of the 12th five-year Plan has been highlighted. The 13th five-year Plan Bureau issued a series of policies to strictly control supply and marketization of ticket prices, guiding from quantity to price. During the 14th five-year Plan, the Aviation Department rationally planned to reduce the speed of transport capacity and improve the degree of match between the fleet and the time. The upward rise in ticket prices after the epidemic will push up the profit center of the aviation department, and China's aviation industry will meet the supercycle.

Risk Tips:Epidemic situation, economy, policy, oil price exchange rate, safety accident, additional dilution.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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