Antimony benefits from the pull of photovoltaic energy metals, while the supply is rigid and the supply gap is enlarged. Antimony prices are expected to continue to rise. As Ta Aluminum Gold and other projects are put into production, the company will cut it into a period of rapid growth, especially the gradual increase in antimony production, which will grasp the main increase in global antimony supply in the next three years. The company will usher in the investment opportunity of increasing both quantity and price.
The company has entered a period of rapid expansion: at present, the company has 3 production mines: domestic Zaxikang Mine and Lawu Mine, overseas Tower Aluminum Gold Industry Kangqiao Mine; at the same time, it has one domestic mining right project and one overseas mining right project. at present, they are all in the preparation period; four detailed exploration rights projects, of which three exploration rights to mining rights procedures are being processed. In April last year, Tal Gold was put into production, marking a period of smooth entry and rapid expansion of the company. Including Ta Aluminum Gold, the company currently has five development projects. The company plans to ensure that three projects will be put into production and four projects will be put into production within three years.
Will control nearly 15% of the global antimony metal supply: the company insists on turning small metal antimony resources into high-quality resources of Huayu Mining. In 2017, it acquired a 50% stake in Tal Gold, and the company's controllable resources reached 434600 tons of metal. After reaching production, Tajin Mining has an annual output of 2.2 tons of gold and 16000 tons of antimony. As Keyue and Ta Aluminium reach production, the company will produce 21000 tons of antimony a year and will control nearly 15 per cent of the global supply of antimony. In addition, Tajin Mining is also the company's zero breakthrough in gold production. After Essetigray and Guizhou Asia-Pacific are put into production, the company will produce more than 6 tons of mineral gold per year.
The antimony price is still 30% + space from the all-time high: the global antimony supply is mainly concentrated in China, Russia and Tajikistan. The production expansion period of antimony ore is long, and the supply is relatively rigid. Consumption benefits from the pull of photovoltaic. It is predicted that the new installed capacity of global photovoltaic will be 250/350/420/500GW from 2022 to 2025. The demand for antimony for photovoltaic glass clarifier from 2022 to 2025 is 1.80, 2.50, 2.98, and 3.48 million tons respectively, accounting for 13%, 16.6, 19.2, and 21.4 percent, respectively. It is expected that the global supply gap of antimony will gradually enlarge in the next three years. This needs to be solved by a higher antimony price. Since last year, most colored varieties have reached an all-time high. At present, the price of antimony is still 33% away from its all-time high, with rising potential and room to make up for it.
Investment advice. We estimate that the return net profit of the company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is 2.1,4.2 and 780 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding price-to-earnings ratio is 45, 23 and 12 times. With the gradual production of Ta aluminum gold industry and the commissioning of Ke Yue Exploration after mining, the company's mineral antimony will increase from one of the main production mines in the past years to 3, and the output will gradually increase. At the same time, the company will also be a major increase in global antimony supply. With the increase of output, the output corresponding to the unit market value of the company increases significantly, that is, the price elasticity is gradually enlarged. Elasticity will be significantly ahead in 2024. In addition, the commissioning of Ta Aluminum Gold Industry marks the company's official entry into the mineral gold market, and the company is actively promoting Guizhou Asia-Pacific and Serbia's Tigre. After the three gold mines reach production, the company will produce 6-7 tons of mineral gold per year. Cover for the first time, giving a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk hints: the progress of projects under construction and proposed projects is not as expected, the output of new production projects is not as expected; the prices of major products such as antimony, gold, lead, zinc, silver, etc., fall sharply; overseas business risks, secondary market fluctuations risk.