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博迁新材(605376)深度报告:PVD技术为基 “一体两翼”起飞

Boqian New Materials (605376) In-depth Report: “Two Wings in One” Takeoff Based on PVD Technology

民生證券 ·  Feb 14, 2023 00:00  · Researches

The company is the world's leading company to achieve large-scale mass production and commercial sale of high-end metal powder materials for nanometer electronics, mastering the core technology of physical Vapor condensation (PVD) under atmospheric pressure. Founded in 2010, the company continues to invest in R & D and capacity expansion in the field of electronic high-end metal powder materials. at present, the business layout covers nanometer, submicron nickel powder and submicron copper powder, silver powder and alloy powder. it also relies on its own technological advantages to expand new products such as wallet copper powder and nano-silicon powder. At present, the number of metal powder production lines of the company has exceeded 150, with leading technology and excellent product quality, the company has maintained a long-term and good business relationship with Samsung Motor, Guoju shares, Huaxinke, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Chaozhou Sanhuan and other international and domestic electronic components industry leaders.

MLCC iterative upgrade drives the continuous growth of MLCC nickel powder market. As a domestic leader, the company enjoys the superimposed share of industry growth to enhance the opportunity of two-wheel drive. MLCC nickel powder is the core raw material for the preparation of MLCC inner electrodes. At present, it has replaced precious metals to occupy the mainstream of the market. There are strict requirements in melting point, purity, particle size, morphology, vibrating density, electromobility and other performance characteristics. The preparation process is also very complex, with high technical barriers. Superimposed downstream customer certification barriers lead to the current global MLCC nickel powder market is mainly monopolized by Japanese companies. Benefiting from the continuous development of MLCC towards miniaturization, thin layer, large capacity, high reliability and low cost, the market scale of MLCC continues to grow, and at the same time drives the market demand of MLCC nickel powder. It is estimated that the market size of MLCC nickel powder will reach 8.7 billion yuan in 2025. As the leader of domestic electronic high-end metal powder materials, the company breaks the foreign monopoly and is expected to benefit from the industry growth and share increase to achieve rapid growth.

Silver-coated copper as one of the main ways to reduce the cost of HJT batteries, with the continuous improvement of HJT battery permeability is expected to open up a new growth space for the company. HJT battery has become one of the next generation mainstream battery technology because of its higher conversion efficiency, low attenuation rate, less process steps and clear cost reduction path. Silver-coated copper solution can replace the low-temperature silver paste of HJT battery to achieve cost reduction. With the continuous improvement of HJT battery permeability, it is expected that the market demand for low-temperature silver paste in 2025 will exceed 1000 tons, and the replacement space for silver-clad copper is huge. Photovoltaic silver paste enterprises have actively begun to layout silver-clad copper schemes.

The company relies on the accumulation of high-end nano-powder technology to expand silver-coated copper powder, with the volume of silver-coated copper market is expected to open up the company's new growth space.

Nano-silicon powder is the core raw material of silicon-based anode, and the continuous improvement of the permeability of silicon-based anode material is expected to open up a new growth space for the company. Silicon-based negative electrode has become the mainstream route of the next generation lithium anode material because of its higher specific capacity. Tesla, Inc. has taken the lead in using silicon-based negative electrode material in 4680 cylindrical batteries. Nano-silicon powder is the core raw material of silicon-carbon anode materials, and its properties directly affect the first Coulomb efficiency and cycle stability of silicon-based anode materials. The preparation of nano-silicon powder is very difficult, and the company's core technology of physical vapor condensation (PVD) under atmospheric pressure has advantages in the preparation of ultra-fine powder. with the expansion of the market of silicon-based anode materials, it is expected to open up a new growth space for the company.

Investment advice: the company as a domestic electronic high-end metal powder material leader, benefiting from the MLCC need to warm up the overlay share to improve two-wheel drive, as well as silver-coated copper powder business is expected to start, 2022-2024 net profit is expected to be 1.72shock 284shock 432 million yuan, corresponding to February 14, 2023 closing price of PE is 84-51-33 times, the first coverage, given the "recommended" rating.

Risk tips: downstream demand is lower than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, new product research and development is not as expected.

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