Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guojin Securities released a research report sayingThe GLP-1 market is still in a stage of rapid growth. At present, 9% of the world's diabetic patients use GLP-1, but it accounts for 31% of the sales revenue of hypoglycemic drugs. GLP-1 is expanding to frontline treatment, and taking down or exploring many major indications such as obesity, NASH, CKD, AD and so on. In the foreseeable future, the global and Chinese GLP-1 market will maintain rapid growth in the next few years, and there are huge domestic substitution opportunities in the domestic market.
In terms of specific configuration, the bank recommends paying attention to the global and domestic R & D progress in the field of GLP-1, and the investment opportunities of relevant pharmaceutical companies and their industrial chains; it is suggested to pay attention to: East China Pharmaceutical (000963.SZ), Tonghua Dongbao (600867.SH), 688076.SH, Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276.SH), Wuxi Apptec (603290.SH) and so on.
The main points of ▍ Guojin Securities are as follows:
The patients with obesity and diabetes are huge, and the industry has a broad prospect.
According to World Health Organization (WHO) 's data, more than 1 billion people worldwide are obese, including 650 million adults, 340 million teenagers and 39 million children. According to the 2020 report on Nutrition and chronic Diseases of Chinese residents, this proportion is more than 1/2 of Chinese adults.
According to the latest IDF report, about 537 million adults worldwide have diabetes in 2021, and the number is expected to rise to 643 million by 2030 and 783 million by 2045.
GLP-1 is a major target for obesity and type 2 diabetes.
GLP-1 receptors are widely distributed in many organs or tissues of the body and have multiple hypoglycemic mechanisms, including promoting insulin production and secretion, increasing insulin sensitivity, inhibiting glucagon secretion, inhibiting β-cell apoptosis, promoting β-cell proliferation, reducing liver glucose output, inhibiting appetite, increasing satiety, delaying gastric emptying and gastrointestinal peristalsis. GLP-1 is an important target in the field of diabetes and obesity at home and abroad.
There are 8 kinds of GLP-1 receptor agonists on the market in China, and many GLP-1 innovative drugs are in clinical II/III phase.
Four of them are short-acting injections, including Essenapeptide, Lilaru Peptide, Bernaru Peptide and Risenapeptide. The other four are long-acting injections, which are Essenapeptide microspheres, Dura glycopeptide, Lossena Peptide and Simigeluo Peptide.
In addition, Tirzepatide (Eli Lilly and Co) has declared that NDA; has 6 GLP-1 innovative drugs in clinical III phase, including IBI362 (INNOVENT BIO), suparuopeptide (Yinnuo Medicine), Gruta monoclonal antibody (Hongyunhuaning), polyethylene glycol esenapeptide (peg biology), Ebenazeptide (Changshan Biochemistry), Efpeglenatide (Hanmei Pharmaceuticals) and so on.
In addition, GX-G6 (CSPC Pharmaceutical), ecnoglutide (first Dabiology), HR170331 (Hengrui Medicine), TTP273 (East China) and other drugs are in clinical II stage.
Biological analogues compete with each other, and East China Medicine is expected to take the top spot.
The Chinese patent of Lilaru peptide has expired, and Sino-American East China and Tonghua Dongbao have submitted applications for listing. East China Pharmaceutical is the first domestic Lilaru peptide to submit an application for listing, and it is expected to be the first to be approved for listing in China. East China Medicine Lilaru Peptide weight loss indications has completed clinical research and submitted the application for weight loss indications, which is expected to become the first GLP-1 product approved weight loss indications in China, including the original research.
East China Medicine submitted an application for invalidation of the patent of Smeagralutide CN101133082B in June 2021. The State intellectual property Office made an examination decision on September 5, 2022, declaring all patent rights invalid. At present, the patent holder is in the period of appeal, and the status of patent authorization has not changed.
Diabetes giant reported 2022 results, GLP-1 revenue increased significantly.
Novo-Nordisk A/S 's income from GLP-1 surpassed that of insulin in 2022, with sales of US $10.94 billion. Eli Lilly and Co's sales of glycopeptide reached $7.44 billion in 2022, up 15 per cent from a year earlier. In addition, the phase III study on Eli Lilly and Co's indication for obesity in China has been successful, and the performance of tiripotide in the field of obesity is expected.
Domestic companies in the field of diabetes continue to make efforts.
East China Pharmaceutical GLP-1 analogues are in the lead in research and development, and the medical and beauty business is outstanding. Tonghua Dongbao was affected by the landing of insulin collection, deducting non-net profit forecast was in line with expectations, R & D and internationalization strategy was further promoted, and the application for listing of human insulin injection in the European Union was accepted. GZR18, a GLP-1 analogue from Ganli Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., completed the first phase Ib/IIa clinical trial in China, and insulin glargine was approved for listing in Pakistan.
In 2022, the market size of GLP-1 surpassed that of insulin and became the biggest driving force in the diabetes market.
The GLP-1 market is still in a stage of rapid growth. At present, 9% of the world's diabetic patients use GLP-1, but it accounts for 31% of the sales revenue of hypoglycemic drugs. GLP-1 is expanding to frontline treatment, and taking down or exploring many major indications such as obesity, NASH, CKD, AD and so on. In the foreseeable future, the global and Chinese GLP-1 market will maintain rapid growth in the next few years, and there are huge domestic substitution opportunities in the domestic market.
Risk hint
Product research and development is less than expected risk, market competition aggravates risk, COVID-19 epidemic development risk, product production capacity is not as expected risk, policy risk, generic drug and collection risk.