The competition barrier of Kirin battery box is raised, and the growth of battery box ASP is accelerated. As the next generation CTP battery, Kirin battery has achieved a new breakthrough in structure design and performance. From the perspective of first-principle drive, battery Pack is constantly pursuing the improvement of energy density and space utilization, and needs to balance the heat dissipation demand brought by the increase of cell density. Kirin battery with innovative structural design and multi-functional interlayer to achieve an increase in energy density and larger heat dissipation area, is expected to become one of the mainstream battery solutions in the market. The utilization rate of the official publicity space is more than 70%, the crossbeam and longitudinal beam are cancelled, the higher structural strength requirements are put forward for the battery box, the air tightness test and the anti-collision protection level of the frame are higher, and the processing technology of the battery box is more complex, and the manufacturing difficulty is further improved compared with the previous generation products. Over the past 22 years, competition has intensified in the field of traditional battery boxes, with a substantial increase in the number of manufacturers expanding production, increased pressure on customers to reduce costs, continued pressure on the price profit margin of old products, and a slight decline in Hesheng's share, with Kirin batteries entering mass production. Hesheng is expected to occupy a higher share of new products by virtue of its first-mover advantage and technical yield. From the perspective of manufacturing process, Kirin battery box integrates a variety of processes, and the process is more complex than that of the previous generation CTP, but the overall price still increases due to the reduction of material costs, and the average unit price is expected to exceed 3000 yuan, which is significantly higher than the existing average price. With Kirin battery permeability increase, the company's high-end battery box shipments will further increase, the current industry competitors production capacity is still mainly traditional pallet / FSW, profitability is general, the company with early investment and early research and development to lead process change, bicycle value and profitability are significantly better than peers, the company is expected to rely on Kirin battery to consolidate the competitive advantage of battery box.
The prospect of energy storage battery is broad, and the extrusion process structure opens the second growth curve. The proportion of new energy power generation continues to increase, supporting energy storage demand ushered in rapid growth, battery energy storage with mature technology, short investment cycle and other advantages gradually become the mainstream route, the global battery leader Ningde energy storage battery growth rate is higher than the power battery. According to the demand characteristics of the energy storage battery, the large cell gradually becomes the future development route, and the matching cell structure needs to have both safety and cost, and the extruded profile process that Hesheng is good at has more comparative advantages in the large structure. With the strategic cooperation with C customers to cut into the energy storage structure, the company's new energy business is expected to open new increments, considering the faster growth of energy storage business, the company's performance is expected to accelerate again.
Consumer business continues to develop, and the downstream recovery is expected to lead to the return of traditional business growth. Due to the downstream recession of consumer electronics and the real estate chain in the past 22 years, the company's traditional consumer electronics + hardware business declined. With the improvement of the downstream consumer market in 23 years, the penetration of metal frames in consumer electronics terminals has improved, and the company's consumer electronics business is expected to recover. The company has actively opened up new customers in the past 22 years, and now it has basically covered mainstream mobile phone brands. In addition, the company's consumer business industry chain is complete, the upstream material production capacity is abundant, through flexible adjustment of production capacity, to provide some processes for the automotive business outsourcing processing.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. Considering that the introduction of Kirin battery is expected to enhance the manufacturing barriers of battery boxes, and the competitive advantage of Hesheng is more significant, the energy storage structure business opens the second growth curve, taking into account the recovery process of traditional business and the penetration of new energy vehicles. We adjusted our profit forecast for 2022-2024 from 3x655 million to 453,626 million, and the company's equity incentive set a high growth target. Taking into account the rise in the volume and price of the company's business and the valuation of the comparable company, and with reference to comparable companies such as Minglida, Kodali, Xiangxin Technology and the company's historical valuation, we value the 2023 target PE at 30 times the target price of RMB 68.1, maintaining a "strong push" rating.
Risk tips: the project is not advancing as expected, the sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected, and the competition is intensified.