Source: red and green

Munger believes that each discipline is to understand the world from a unique point of view, and it is a blind man who touches an elephant. In order to surpass the cognitive decision-making of ordinary people, it is necessary to master multiple core thinking models. Knowing things only by ingenuity may have an occasional flash of inspiration, but it is not deep enough. There is a famous saying in Weiqi: "if you don't want to be quiet, even if you realize it, it is also futile." "here are 15 of Charlie Munger's 100 thought models that may provide a hand for thinking.

01. Compound interest principle

Buffett said: life is like a snowball, the key is to find enough wet snow and long enough slopes.

Charlie Munger said: understanding the power of compound interest and the difficulty of obtaining it at the same time is the core and soul of understanding many things.

In the limited time, the limited energy and wealth, continue and repeatedly invest in a certain field, adhere to it for a long time, the final positive impact, such as a snowball will be bigger and bigger, it will bring more returns than you can imagine. This is the typical compound interest thinking in economics.

Most people will not use compound interest for the rest of their lives, nor will they realize the power of compound interest. Compound interest thinking requires us to look at things from a developmental and long-term perspective.

02. Anti-entropy increasing thinking

From a system, an organization, to a planet, and even each of us, obeys the law of entropy increase. We will become chaotic, disorderly, rigid and lifeless until we perish in this chaos. Fortunately, the universe is balanced, and under the premise of entropy increase, it gives us a different path, anti-entropy increase, that is, self-organization and life.

Amazon.Com Inc's CEO Bezos has a deep understanding of anti-entropy increase. He made Amazon.Com Inc's service open enough to give rise to the Amazon Cloud, and he appreciates even a little bit of new things, requiring employees at and above the executive level to read the Innovator's Dilemma once a week.

The increase of anti-entropy is the reproduction of life. The planet was born from the nebula and produced the lithosphere, atmosphere, rivers, monsoon, spring water and mineral deposits, all of which are organized processes and a resistance to disorder. The culmination of this orderly and organized process is the emergence of life: DNA clumps, single-celled organisms, multicellular organisms, plants and animals, to the most exquisite organized structure-human.

When one grows old, the best state is to return to the baby and nature. An enterprise, to make its own anti-entropy increase, is to make itself more dynamic, more open, more adaptable to external changes, and let it evolve in the environment. At the same time, independent new business can be generated continuously, and new business can also evolve continuously.

In essence, continuous development is a process of entropy increase, and if we want to break through the discontinuity, we must "produce a new curve", which is the best way to combat entropy increase.

03. Anti-fragile thinking model

Things can be divided into three categories: fragile, strong, and anti-fragile.

Fragile things will be broken and damaged when they are subjected to external pressure, just as a glass will break when it falls to the ground; strong things will not be affected by external pressure.

And anti-fragile things can evolve with pressure to make themselves stronger in this fluctuating world.

Don't be overwhelmed by stress, it's the best energy you can evolve. Changes in the external environment will screen out the real anti-vulnerable. The anti-fragile thinking model can be applied to:

Rational Analysis from the predicament, enhance Cognition and gain Energy

Return to the heart from the pressure and improve your mind and bearing

Reorientate from the limitation and improve the vision and pattern.

And nature also has anti-fragility. In this world, many natural things are flexible and anti-fragile. There are many characteristics of nature, there are common laws such as spring, summer, autumn and winter in nature, adaptable creatures evolve from such fluctuations, and large and clumsy creatures such as dinosaurs become extinct; the human body also conforms to the laws of nature. also has the anti-fragility, the human fracture, the born bone will be stronger, the poisoned person will also have the anti-poison characteristic.

Anti-vulnerability itself can face the risk and can benefit from the risk.

In the face of future uncertainty, we can do this:

Make use of asymmetry, small input and high output.

Be diversified so that you have more than one skill or identity.

I believe that the non-linearity of the future will give us more opportunities and fun. In this world, it is precisely because of non-linearity that new creatures continue to emerge, and new things replace old things, so that we will continue to grow and improve.

04. Three-layer interpretive thinking model

For a thing, there can be three layers of explanation: the reality layer, the technical layer, and the bottom layer.

The reality layer will explain the simple cause and effect that most people can see; the technology layer will explain the law behind the reality, which is a kind of law brought by the background and a law of visible skills under the phenomenon; while at the bottom, it is a law that can be widely applied, which is a deep thinking model, has access to human nature, and has insight into the law.

The three-layer explanatory thinking model can be applied to deeply analyze the causes of an event and understand the laws of a complex thing.

05, 10: 10 bystander thinking model

When faced with a decision or choice, when you are hesitant, think about it:

10 minutes later, what do you think of your current decision? you may regret it if you still agree with it.

10 months later, how would you think about this decision you made 10 months ago?

Ten years later, what do you think of your judgment and decision 10 years ago?

This thinking model can be applied to: temporary judgments, big decisions, predicting their own future, and so on.

06. Golden Circle thinking

The golden circle is a way to perceive the world, which has three levels.

Starting from why, exploring the nature of the problem is the fastest way to analyze the root causes of the problem.

The mode of thinking is to start from Why, why to do so, what the idea is, stimulate emotional emotion from the heart, produce driving force; then think about How and set goals to solve it step by step; the final result is What, which is more in line with the original idea.

Why: think about why we do this, our goals, our ideas.

How: what methods and measures should be adopted?

What: the presentation of the results.

07. Non-linear thinking

As a result of long-term human evolution, we are more inclined to understand the world in a "linear" way of thinking.

However, the nature of the world is non-linear.

The reason why some people in this world can achieve great success, while most people are ordinary, depends on whether their way of thinking is linear or non-linear. The core of nonlinear thinking:

-understanding that the world is nonlinear, leaping, and unpredictable

-understand the core causes of qualitative change, accelerate or wait for the critical point to come, and reap the huge benefits of the period of qualitative change.

Have the courage to give up short-term benefits during the accumulation period and do things that are beneficial to the promotion of the previous item (such as investing more principal and accumulating more work experience during the accumulation period).

There are five basic forms of nonlinear thinking: systematic dialectical thinking, divergent thinking, reverse thinking, intuitive thinking and inspirational thinking.

08. Fully integrated thinking model

To complete a thing, in addition to have a complete and clear logical thinking, but also need the integration of a variety of elements, such as: human resources, material and money resources, timing environment and so on.

It's like completing the creation of a ceramic work:

In addition to creating drawings and ceramics, they also need mud, which is equivalent to resources related to material and money; while water is like people, they need to combine the mud; the firing of ceramics also needs the right temperature and speed, which is like invisible timing and background environment; and the carving on ceramics is like dealing with the details of things. The order of what to do first and then what to do is also crucial.

Therefore, for a project to be successful, in addition to possible planning, it also needs adequate manpower preparation, event decomposition and stratification, methodological support, process system incentive support, stable and clear explanation of responsibility and power decomposition, and emergency plans and ideas. Only in this way can we do things like this and get twice the result with half the effort.

The cloze fusion thinking model can be applied to the execution of things, thinking about the causes of things, predicting people's judgment, and so on. Only by considering enough factors, the mutual support of the overall needs and the interrelationship between the factors, can we judge and analyze them more accurately.

09. Descartes' thinking model

Descartes was a great philosopher who made a bold point of view. How can you prove that the world is real? Is there anything in this world that cannot be suspected?

He thought and thought, but never caught the cornerstone. Until a moment, it was like lightning struck him. He realized that there was only one thing that could no longer be suspected, and that was: I doubted it.

That is, I think,therefore I am. This thing is certain, so I exist, so no matter whether the current world is real or not, there must be a world. And now the world, I don't know if it really exists.

This is critical thinking, boldly questioning everything. We think that the evolution of science is inheritance, but in fact it is subversion.

The next generation of scientists almost subverts the previous generation. As Jobs said: the stay hungry,stay foolish; stock god would say: the only thing I know is that I don't know anything.

In people's cognitive experience, the more successful paradigms in the past, the more restraints they put on themselves.

10. Acquired biased thinking model

People misjudge a thing not because they don't know anything, but because they pay too much attention to the known parts.

From a large gestalt point of view, the information you know may be less than 5%, so the information you have obtained may not only be unimportant, but may also be limited and biased.

In which life scenes will the acquired bias occur?

For example, when people are looking for a new job, it is often difficult to let go of what they have done.

Adherence to established ideas, even stubbornness.

Nostalgia for useless old things.

Many of us have encountered a similar situation, a lot of things are reluctant to throw away when they know they are useless. As everyone knows, the entropy of the room is increasing, and because your living environment is not simple enough, you will become confused, dull and the loss outweighs the gain. In addition, new things are hard to get in, and your life is gradually falling into inefficiency and rigidity.

How to overcome the acquired bias?

Lower yourself, be modest and open-minded.

Think independently, starting with the essence, using deduction rather than induction, reasoning from the nature of things, rather than continuous use of previous experience.

Sort and sort out. Sort the information and put everything in order.

Re-analyze and evaluate the environment and information, which are reasonable, which are backward, and which can be upgraded.

Know how to give up and let go.

Dynamic state of mind, possession is only temporary, change is eternal.

11. Permutation and combination thinking model

Like compound interest model, permutation and combination model is not only a mathematical tool, but also a way of thinking that can improve the quality of our decision-making. In many cases, there are many factors that affect decision-making, and different permutations and combinations can be formed through classification and step by step.

Charlie Munger's multiple thinking model is essentially a kind of multi-dimensional combination thought, which brings different interdisciplinary knowledge together to solve a problem. The weights of different problems and disciplines are different, so the comprehensive consideration of the problem is more comprehensive, and the correct probability is higher. A big problem can be broken down into many related elements, so it is convenient for us to see the whole problem clearly, and then find the key point, starting from the key point can get twice the result with half the effort.

The combination of many elements can take a more comprehensive view of a problem and avoid falling into Charlie Munger's "Hammerman" thinking.

12. Fermat Pascal system

Of all the qualities of knowledge, ability, effort and patience, Charlie Munger values reason most.

Charlie Munger said: "you have to see the world as it really is, not what you think it is or what you want it to be. Only in this way can you make the right choice." "

The Fermat Pascal system is the basic tool for understanding the real world.

Fermat Pascal system is the basic principle of probability theory. In life, full of temptations, people make decisions according to experience and various psychological tendencies, thus falling into a lot of traps.

Through the learning and understanding of the Fermapaska system, we need to understand cognitively what the actual probability of things is, and after a clear understanding, it will be more rational to make a decision.

Make these basic mathematical probability methods a part of our lives so that we don't give away our advantages to others.

13. Prospect theory

Prospect theory is an important thinking model of risk decision-making, which is proposed by Nobel Prize psychologist Kahneman to describe and predict people's behavior theory in the process of risk decision-making.

The analysis framework of prospect theory has three characteristics: first, most people are risk-averse when faced with gains; second, most people prefer risks when facing losses; third, people are more sensitive to losses than gains.

Specifically, the certainty effect: "two birds in the forest is not as good as a bird in hand". Between a certain income and a "gamble", most people will choose a definite benefit and put it in a bag for peace of mind.

Reflex effect: to make a choice between a certain loss and a "bet", most people will choose to "gamble".

Loss aversion: the happiness brought by picking up 100 yuan for nothing, it is difficult to offset the pain caused by losing 100 yuan.

Infatuated with small probability events: many people have bought lottery tickets, although winning may be very small, but some people still have a chance to fight for small probability events.

14. Flow model

"flow" refers to the state of concentration and selflessness when we do something-a state in which you don't even feel the presence of time. When things are done, we will have a feeling of energy and contentment.

This is the theory of human happiness, and the conditions that make people immersed in flow require:

1. A clear goal, a task with the right difficulty-neither anxious nor boring.

two。 Timely feedback-satisfaction with progress. Why the game is so popular is that the design of the game satisfies the flow theory. If the definition of the game is expanded to include study, work, sports and education, to assess whether what you are doing satisfies the flow of flow or not, it will naturally lead a happy life.

3. Give full play to one's ability.

4. He is completely focused and has control over his opponent's affairs.

The state of flow is the best and most peaceful state we can achieve at work. Through a flow state, a new flow state will be produced. Successful people can successfully turn their lives into a simple state of flow. They are tightly connected in all parts of their lives, and all their activities have meaning.

15. Occam's razor law

Occam's law of razor, also known as the law of simplicity, can be traced back at least to Aristotle's "nature chooses the shortest path". The core content is "if it is not necessary, do not add entity", that is, the simple and effective principle.

According to the principle of minimum energy, our life should be as simple as possible, and the simple and effective way is to form good habits. Automatic car is gradually replacing manual car, also because automatic gear meets the "simple and effective principle" for most users.

In the face of complex investment markets, you should pick up Occam's razor, simplify complex things, simplify your investment strategies, distinguish between things that consume a lot of money, time and energy, and then take steps to get rid of them.

Finally, we conclude with the famous saying of Frederick Maitland: "simplicity is the result of long-term hard work, not the starting point." "

Edit / Somer