Zhitong Financial APP learned that open source securities released a research report sayingWinter storage and spring ploughing boosts the boom of phosphate fertilizer + iron phosphate (lithium) drives the increase in demand, and phosphate rock is expected to usher in a revaluation. Enterprises are expected to fully benefit from supporting high-quality phosphate rock resources and obtaining phosphate fertilizer export quotas.
Beneficiary targets: 600696.SH (14.5 million tons / year of phosphate rock, accounting for about 20% of the national exports of ammonium phosphate in 2021), Xingfa Group (600141.SH) (expected to reach 6.15 million tons / year of phosphate rock production by the end of 2022, ammonium phosphate 1 million tons / year and 680000 tons of wet-process phosphoric acid + 100000 tons of purified phosphoric acid), Chuan Heng Co., Ltd. (3 million tons / year of phosphate rock, 2.5 million tons / year under construction The cost advantage of semi-aqueous wet-process phosphoric acid process is remarkable.
The main points of ▍ open source securities are as follows:
2022H2, the rising trend of chemical fertilizer prices at home and abroad has been effectively controlled. Domestic phosphate exports slow down, profits continue to be under pressure, resulting in supply contraction. At present, domestic and overseas ammonium phosphate stocks are at a low level. The supply of phosphate rock in China has continued to tighten since 2017. it is estimated that the rate of increase in phosphate rock production from 2023 to 2025 is less than 3%, while the incremental demand growth driven by the expansion of iron phosphate (lithium phosphate) production is more than 2%. In addition, lithium materials and battery companies have chosen to cooperate with phosphate chemical enterprises to lock in phosphate rock resources, phosphate rock supply is expected to remain tight.
The price of phosphate rock has been running strongly since August 2022. In December, the main phosphate rock producing areas such as Hubei and Sichuan may stop mining one after another, and the further tightening of phosphate rock supply is expected to push up the phosphate rock price. 2023Q1, with the domestic spring ploughing fertilizer driving phosphate rock demand, phosphate rock prices may rise further; 2023Q2, with the removal of phosphate fertilizer stocks in India and the strong demand for phosphate fertilizer in Southeast Asia, or it will drive overseas phosphate fertilizer prices up, domestic chemical fertilizer exports will make huge profits; followed by large-scale production of iron phosphate (lithium), will further drive phosphate rock demand.
Risk Tips:Oil prices have fallen sharply, downstream demand is weak, and the production of iron phosphate (lithium) projects is not as expected.