Zhitong Financial APP learned that China Post Securities released a research report sayingThe process of commercialization of perovskite batteries is accelerated, and attention is paid to equipment investment opportunities.It is recommended to pay attention to the high value of coating equipment merchants Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), Jijia Weichuang (300724.SZ); rely on the original evaporation technology, to cut into the perovskite track of 688378.SZ; put forward the "material + equipment + components" trinity planning of 300585.SZ; laser equipment merchants big family laser (002008.SZ), 688025.SH (688025.SH), Dier laser (300776.SZ).
The main points of ▍ China Post Securities are as follows:
⑴ perovskite: the third generation of solar cells, the commercialization process is expected to speed up
Perovskite is a revolutionary new material. Perovskite solar cells are solar cells that use perovskite-type organometallic halide semiconductors (with the chemical general formula of ABX3) as light-absorbing materials. Perovskite battery is a revolutionary new material because of its high efficiency limit, low cost, stackable and flexible.
Efficiency and stability are the core factors of commercialization and are in the stage of rapid improvement. In terms of efficiency, the efficiency of the perovskite (small area) laboratory has improved rapidly, which is far from the ultimate efficiency of the supercrystalline silicon battery, and the conversion efficiency of the large area perovskite production line is also expected to continue to improve. Xiexin Optoelectronics plans its own component efficiency to reach 18% in 2023, 20% in 2024 and 22% in 2025. In terms of stability, in the current research at home and abroad, the long-term operation stability at the maximum optical power output point MPP has been as long as thousands of hours; the fiber nano optoelectronic α module has successfully passed the full system certification of IEC61215 and IEC61730 stability, and can work for 1000 hours under double 85 test.
The process of commercialization of perovskite is accelerated. Up to now, three 100 megawatt perovskite photovoltaic module production lines have been completed in China (Xiexin Optoelectronics, Fiber Optoelectronics, Polar Electro-optic Energy), and a number of 100 megawatt production lines and GW production lines are under way. According to incomplete statistics, the energy of perovskite in 2022 is about 0.47GW, which is expected to reach 1.16/4.47GW in 2023 / 2024. Driven by both technology and capital, the bank believes that a number of GW-level production lines are expected to be tendered in 2023 and landed within 2-3 years.
⑵ single perovskite battery: it is recommended to give priority to coating and coating equipment.
Take Xiexin optoelectronic 100MW production line as an example, the main equipment of single perovskite production line includes PVD equipment, coating equipment, laser equipment and packaging equipment. The specific production process is as follows: anodic buffer layer-laser P1mer-perovskite coating-cathodic buffer layer-laser P2mure-back electrode-laser P3mure-laser P4mure-packaging equipment.
PVD is the core equipment of perovskite battery with mature technology and high value. PVD (physical Vapor deposition) equipment is not a new concept, it has been applied in the field of semiconductor-HJT, and the technology is more mature. In the perovskite production line, PVD equipment is mainly used for coating electron transport layer, hole transport layer and electrodes, so multiple sets of equipment may be needed in one production line, which makes the current PVD coating equipment account for about 50% of the value of the whole perovskite line.
The coating equipment is mainly used to prepare perovskite layer, which has the advantage of performance-to-price ratio. The contactless slit coating process can meet the current requirements of physical consistency of perovskite layer, and the investment per equipment of the coating process is usually about 300-4 million, which is higher than that of PVD equipment. However, the post-channel control crystal is difficult, and the quality of the film (chemical consistency) still needs to be improved, so the equipment and process need to be improved. At present, the market share of Dehu film in Shanghai is 70%.
The laser process involves the whole preparation process of perovskite thin film battery and has the effect of slicing. The laser with high processing precision and suitable for thin film material is the key to realize the circuit connection and is a necessary link in the preparation of the whole perovskite battery. The perovskite battery needs three times of parallel laser etching (P1-P3), and the edge removal of P4 is completed, with a total value of about 1020%. In the etching process of P1-P3, the laser can achieve the cutting effect, so that the surface of the material is quickly heated to vaporize and form a groove line, which can form a separate module to block the current conduction, and play a slicing effect, so as to achieve the goal of increasing the voltage and series battery.
⑶ laminated perovskite battery: obvious efficiency advantage, the ultimate photovoltaic solution
Perovskite / crystalline silicon stack is the further efficiency of crystalline silicon battery, or it will become the initial path of perovskite industrialization. The perovskite / silicon laminated battery needs to make the crystal silicon surface into a zigzag surface to facilitate the perovskite layer to absorb light. The existing technology is difficult to coating perovskite layer on the sawtooth surface, so the perovskite layer of perovskite / crystalline silicon laminated battery needs to use more PVD coating technology.
Full perovskite laminated battery has the highest theoretical efficiency and the lowest kilowatt-hour cost, so it is expected to become the ultimate path of industrialization. The overall difficulty of the all-perovskite laminated battery is not great, and the main performance depends on the performance of a single perovskite battery. The difficulty is that due to the increase of the number of layers, it is necessary to solve the cumulative problem of the uniformity deviation of the lower layer, and the laser etching process is more demanding.
Risk Tips:
The progress of perovskite industrialization is not as expected.