Event: Hengfeng convertible Bond (Hengfeng Information) was listed on February 8, 2023, with a size of 242 million yuan, an initial conversion share price of 13.85 yuan, a current parity of 110.5 yuan, a rating of 1.56%, and a debt bottom of 65.7 yuan. At the time of the offering, the placement of the original shareholders accounted for 71.8%, and the first three major shareholders were all placed at full amount.
Volatility is in a safe range, post-emotional cycle attribute, the trend is OK: historically, the rise of positive stock volatility is often driven by rising, and after the volatility reaches an all-time high, it is possible to release pressure through rapid decline. and drive volatility down. In the market since October 2022, the rebound of positive stocks has once again driven the volatility upward. at present, the volatility has fallen moderately near the central position and is generally in a safe range. In the history of positive stocks, there are certain characteristics of post-emotional cycle, that is, larger increases usually occur in the latter part of the market, the recent price has just broken through the previous center, the marginal decline in trading volume, or there is a short-term return demand, the trend is OK at present.
The positive skewness of volatility is at a high level, the intraday divergence begins to pick up, and the performance sets an upper limit for repair:
The positive deviation of the volatility of positive stocks has reached a high level. Historically, before market sentiment has completely weakened, the index can maintain high volatility, but the upward space is limited, which means that the persistence of the subsequent rally is insufficient. Concomitantly, the intra-day divergence of positive shares begins to rise, which is not conducive to the formation of a smooth trend. In fact, the fluctuation of positive shares in the past few years is generally consistent with the fluctuation cycle of its net profit, and the fact that it is difficult to break through the performance is the reason why it is difficult to open the ceiling of its share price. According to the latest performance forecast, although the company's performance has increased slightly, the height of repair is not high in history, limiting its upper limit in the current round of market to a certain extent.
Chip float is at a high level: chip pressure reaches a high level, short-term pull up is easy to quickly overdraft space, it is recommended to choose the opportunity to intervene after a moderate pullback.
Stock fundamentals: the company is a high-tech enterprise dedicated to providing information technology and smart industry solutions for smart city industry customers. Guided by customer needs, the company provides customers with one-stop integrated solutions for scheme design, software development, project implementation, system integration, completion acceptance and operation and maintenance. The company's smart industry solutions mainly serve the three sub-application areas of smart cities, public safety and livelihood services, mainly for government agencies, institutions and large and medium-sized state-owned and joint-stock enterprises.
Through years of development, the company has become one of the domestic smart city industry comprehensive solution providers with strong competitiveness, and has a strong market competitiveness in subdivided application fields such as people's livelihood, public safety, urban services and so on. The company is located in a sub-industry that implements compulsory qualification certification, and having compulsory qualification is a prerequisite for enterprise operation. Enterprises with high-level qualifications have obvious advantages in project undertaking. The company is one of the enterprises with complete qualification system and high level in the industry.
The company's operating income structure is stable, mainly from the smart city industry integrated solution business. Since 2019, the smart city industry integrated solution business accounted for more than 80% of its total revenue. Hengfeng's operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 405 million yuan, up 5.8 per cent from a year earlier. The operating cost was 284 million yuan, a decrease of 0.95% over the same period last year. The gross profit margin was 29.84%, an increase of 4.78% over the same period last year. According to the company's performance forecast, the company's homing net profit will increase by-20% to 10% year-on-year in 2022.
Risk tips: market mood fluctuations, changes in corporate fundamentals, failure of statistical laws.