Recommended logic: 1) the scientific research reagent industry is developing rapidly, the domestic market scale is more than 100 billion, and the domestic substitute is timely. 2) the company's brand strength, product strength and channel power are all in the leading position in China. The number of customers who have been rated as the "most popular reagent brand" for 11 consecutive years occupies an absolutely dominant position, and the number of new customers can reach about 20,000 per year. The number of the company's own brand SKU is gratifying, and it is expected to add more than 30, 000 in the next three years. E-commerce platform has become a benchmark in the industry, with more than 200,000 registered users. 3) the growth rate of performance in the next three years is expected to be about 30%, which is the right time to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The scientific research reagent industry is developing rapidly, and it is the right time for domestic replacement. The development of scientific research reagent industry benefits from the continuous growth of scientific research funding in scientific research service industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national investment in research and experimental development (R & D) has continued to increase in recent years. In 2021, the country invested 2.8 trillion yuan in R & D, an increase of 356.32 billion yuan over 2020, an increase of 14.6%. Scientific research reagents are widely used in a wide range of applications, and categories continue to expand. The number of domestic reagents has jumped from about 3000 in 2006 to more than 30, 000 in 2015. Since entering the "14th five-year Plan", China's overall economic strength has improved rapidly, the country has paid more and more attention to scientific and technological innovation and independent research and development, and the development of China's scientific research reagent industry has entered a critical period. 2021 the market scale of domestic scientific research reagent consumables will be higher than 1174-146.8 billion yuan, the share of domestic enterprises is less than 10%, and the future replacement potential is full.
The stone of other mountains-the extension and internal drive of scientific research service enterprises is the only way to grow. In recent years, industry giants such as Semefy, Danaher Corp and Merck have increased their investment in China, and they have strong competitive advantages in brand reputation and product quality. By reviewing their growth path, we believe that the extension and internal drive of domestic scientific research service enterprises is the only way for development. It is necessary to focus on the expansion of high-tech barrier product line, the synergy target of M & A, and to strengthen the compound interest effect after M & A through refinement and enterprise management mode.
Brand strength, product power, channel power to create the company's leading position. Since its inception, the company has insisted on building its own brand, which is significantly different from its domestic competitors. It has been rated as the "most popular reagent brand" for 11 years in a row. The number of customers of the company occupies an absolutely dominant position, and the annual number of new customers can reach about 20,000. The company pays attention to independent innovation, and the number of its own brand SKU is gratifying, and it is expected to add more than 30, 000 in the next three years. E-commerce platform has become a benchmark in the industry, with more than 200000 registered users.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.78 yuan, 1.08 yuan and 1.43 yuan respectively. The net profit of homing in the next three years will maintain a compound growth rate of 31%. The company will be given 50 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 54 yuan, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: the risk that the sales of product channels are less than expected; the risk of the deterioration of the competition pattern in the industry; the risk of failure in new product research and development.
