Zhitong Financial APP learned that it was reported that US officials said on the 6th local time that the United States was considering raising the import tariff on Russian-made aluminum to 200% in order to put pressure on Russia as the first anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict approached. February seventhBasic metals generally fell in the domestic commodity marketHowever, the main contract of shanghai aluminum went against the market today, becoming the only metal that rose, up 0.63% at midday. Guotai Junan Futures said that given that United's exports to the US account for about 6-7 per cent of United's total revenue, it does not have much impact on United as a whole, but if Europe, which accounts for up to 40 per cent of the total, follows suit, it may have a more significant impact on overseas aluminium markets.
From the perspective of the Hong Kong stock market, by the close, aluminum plate-related stocks, Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd (02600) rose more than 5%, China Hongqiao (01378) rose 1.06%, United (00486), Xingfa Aluminum (00098) and Rongyang Industries all fell. Among them, Rongyang Industrial (02078) fell more than 4%.
According to the report, the official said, "this is what we are considering" and is not expected to announce an increase in tariffs this week. But earlier, other media reported that the United States could announce a 200 per cent tariff on Russian-produced aluminum as early as this week, and US President Joe Biden has not yet formally approved the plan. within the US government, there have been concerns about collateral damage to US industries such as aerospace and cars.
Russia is the world's second largest producer of aluminum after China and has been an important source of raw materials for the US market. Such high tariffs will prevent the United States from importing aluminum from Russia. Although Russia traditionally accounts for 10 per cent of total US aluminium imports, that proportion has fallen to just over 3 per cent, according to US trade data.
The move against aluminium also continues efforts by the US and the EU to weaken Russia's role as a global commodity powerhouse. The European Union has banned imports of oil, natural gas and fuel from Russia to reduce its dependence on Russia. So far, however, there is no sign that the EU plans to take similar action against Rusal.
Based on this news, Guotai Junan Futures believes that the short-term market impact has three: 1. Combined with the news last week that the United States has restricted the import of aluminum products from some sensitive areas of China, the spot rising water of American aluminum ingots is expected to remain strong; 2. Russia's exports of aluminum ingots to China will continue to expand, which may partly explain the extraordinary increase in imports from November to December last year; 3. There is a positive set of logic driven by aluminum ingot logistics in the internal and external arbitrage drive, but there is also the support of Yunnan production reduction news in China. Shanghai Aluminum Micro marginal pricing tendency is not weak, and the term structure conditions are also unfavorable, so the positive arbitrage space is a little cautious at present.
Last month, Goldman Sachs Group issued a report saying that he is optimistic about the subsequent rise in aluminum prices. Goldman Sachs Group expects the average price of aluminium in London to reach $3125 a tonne this year, well above the current level of less than $2600.
Goldman Sachs Group analysts said that the shortage of inventory and the improvement of the macro environment are the two major factors that they expect aluminum prices to rise. Global inventories are currently visible at just 1.4 million tonnes, down 900000 tonnes from a year earlier and the lowest since 2002, and the return of the total deficit will soon raise concerns about shortages. In a more benign macro environment, the upward momentum of aluminum prices is expected to gradually accumulate into the spring as the headwind of the dollar recedes and the Fed's rate-raising cycle slows.
On the whole, for the trend of short-term aluminum prices, Jinyuan futures analysis believes that strong US economic data led to a reversal of better expectations for the Federal Reserve, the US index rose sharply, non-ferrous fell, and aluminum prices followed the downtrend, but the United States once again raised tariffs to boycott United, Lun aluminum recovered some of its losses, and the bottom support of aluminum prices continued to strengthen under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Aluminum fundamentals downstream demand has not yet fully recovered, warehouse volume is low, a large amount of storage pace of non-stop consumption continues to limit the space above aluminum prices, aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate around Wanjiu.
However, for today's rise, Shanghai Nonferrous Network believes that, on the whole, the news of US sanctions on Russian aluminum metal has not finally landed, so it will not have a greater impact for the time being. Today's inner market Shanghai aluminum trend is strong, more affected by the domestic supply side.
On the news, it is reported that Yunnan Province may carry out a new round of production restrictions on electrolytic aluminum, expanding the production limit to 35% and 40%. Yunnan Province carried out a round of production reduction in September 2022, with a production reduction capacity of about 1.15 million tons, with a reduction scale of 22% based on 5.25 million tons of capacity in production. According to media information, Guizhou electrolytic aluminum suffered three rounds of "load limit" in January 2023. Guizhou Province has a production capacity of 1.3 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and a production capacity reduction of 700000 tons was implemented in January.
Citic Construction Investment released a research report saying that in view of the greater impact of unexpected production cuts in southwest China on supply, improving the balance sheet, reversing the consistent expectations of the futures market on the 2023 aluminum market surplus setting at the end of 2022, the repair of "expectation gap" and the rapid de-stocking of the peak season, will push aluminum prices back above 20000 yuan / ton.
Earlier, Bank of America released a research report saying that its view on the domestic aluminum market this year remained positive, and that aluminum demand is expected to benefit from the rebound in the completion of inner housing this year and stable housing demand, and because of its relationship with food and other consumption, the industry may be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
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$CHALCO (02600.HK)$A leading enterprise in China's aluminum industry, it is the world's largest supplier of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, fine alumina, high purity aluminum and aluminum anodes. The company's H shares have risen 28.6% since the start of the year, better than the 9.6% rise in the Hang Seng Index over the same period. According to the third quarterly report, the stock achieved revenue of HK $227.845 billion, net profit of HK $5.049 billion, HK $0.29 per share and gross profit of HK $22.57 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.60 times.
$CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK)$The world's leading manufacturer of aluminum products. According to the report in 2022, the output of aluminum alloy products of the group is about 2.931 million tons, a slight increase compared with the same period in 2021. The output of aluminum alloy processed products is about 362000 tons, which has little change compared with the same period in 2021. The announcement said that the increase in revenue was mainly due to the sharp increase in the prices of aluminum alloy products, aluminum alloy processing products and alumina products during the period compared with the same period last year, and the corresponding increase in product revenue.
$XINGFA ALUM (00098.HK)$Chinese mainland is one of the first enterprises to produce aluminum profiles, and now it has become a well-known large enterprise specializing in the production of construction aluminum profiles in Guangdong Xingfa aluminum industry co., Ltd and industrial aluminum profiles, with an actual annual output of 100000 tons According to the announcement on January 4, the company's indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Guangdong Xingfa's acquisition of a 4% stake in Guangdong Foreign Trade Development Co., Ltd. has completed the relevant industrial and commercial changes.
$United (00486.HK)$OK Rusal MKPAO is a Russian manufacturer of aluminum products. The company uses electricity from renewable energy to produce aluminum, and its technology can reduce greenhouse gas emissions at all stages of production. According to the announcement in December 2022, LLC RUSALTRANS, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, intends to acquire 100% of the total issued share capital of LLC KraMZ-Auto for 256 million roubles for a total consideration of about 256 million roubles (equivalent to about $3.5014 million at the exchange rate of 73 rubles to the dollar).