Core ideas:
The third phase of Macao expansion project (EPC/ total investment of 2.240 billion RMB) is accelerated, and the company's global layout is accelerated. According to the release of Dadukou, the company has completed the "packing" delivery of a new batch of incinerators for the Macao project, so far, the facilities and equipment of the third phase of the Macao waste incineration center expansion project of 1300 tons / day have been completed, and it is expected that the subsequent construction of the project EPC will be accelerated. Relying on more than 20 years of incinerator research and development and product advantages, the company has accelerated the layout of overseas markets. Since 2022, it has successively signed supply contracts in Hanoi, Vietnam, Iha, India and other countries and regions.
The project in hand has grown in the past 2 years, with significant advantages in operational efficiency and cash hematopoiesis. By the end of 2022H1, the company has a capacity of 432 million tons per day (of which 35,000 tons / day is controlled), 15 projects under construction / preparation (including shareholding), with a total production capacity of 13700 tons / day, of which 5 projects have been put into trial operation, and the project reserve is relatively sufficient, which can support the growth of the company in the past two years. 2022H1 company's electricity generation per ton and online electricity per ton reached 399 and 351 kilowatt-hours per ton respectively, and the plant power consumption rate was maintained at 12%, leading the industry in operating efficiency. In 2021, the net inflow of operating cash reached 1.85 billion yuan.
Excluding the impact of one-time state subsidies, the performance is still bright, equipment advantages lay the cornerstone of expansion. After deducting the impact of 381 million yuan one-time state subsidy income in 2021, the company achieved a net profit of 860 million yuan (+ 20.41% compared with the same period last year) in the first three quarters of 2022. In addition, there are still some stock items in the company that have not yet been determined, which will contribute to the future performance.
From the perspective of equipment, up to 2022H1's technology and equipment have applied 234 incineration projects and 384 incineration lines at home and abroad, covering a waste disposal capacity of more than 200,000 tons per day. Relying on the advantages of equipment, the company is accelerating domestic and overseas expansion, looking forward to the continued expansion of the company's operation scale.
Profit forecast and investment advice: significant equipment advantages, industrial chain expansion, sea acceleration is expected to enhance the growth expectation, maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 10.52,12.77 and 1.518 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the latest PE 11.30,9.31 and 7.83 times respectively. The accelerated release of production capacity under construction and preparation will give the company a valuation of 15 times PE in 2023 and a reasonable value of 11.41 yuan per share. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The project construction is low in expectation; the overseas expansion is not as expected; the state subsidy is low in expectation.