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中国银河证券:短期硅料反弹或难维持 一体化企业有望享受利润红利

China Galaxy Securities: Short-term silicon rebound may be difficult to maintain, integrated companies are expected to enjoy profit dividends

Zhitong Finance ·  Feb 7, 2023 15:00

Zhitong Financial APP learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that in mid-to-late January, raw material inventories of silicon wafer companies were gradually consumed to the critical line of "waiting for the pot", and the industry demand was generally expected to be good, and the demand picked up to support the silicon material upward. But the bank believes that silicon oversupply throughout the year, a short-term rebound may be difficult to maintain. As the silicon material enters the downward cycle, the profit of the photovoltaic industry chain enters the redistribution stage. In 2023, the profitability of most companies will improve to varying degrees, and the gross profit margin of the main industry chain (except silicon material) will return to the central range of 15%. Integrated enterprises can maximize the profit dividend released by silicon materials.

The main points of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

The price of silicon is adjusted quickly after the Spring Festival.

Solarzoom data show that between December 7, 2022 and January 4, 2023, the transaction price of super dense materials from first-tier manufacturers halved from 300 yuan / kg to 170 yuan / kg, a decline of 43%, far exceeding market expectations. After the sharp fall, silicon prices stabilized, and overall shipments were limited in January. The transaction price was stable at 165yuan / kg two weeks before the Spring Festival, down 3% from the beginning of January, and the decline narrowed significantly. The latest transaction price quickly rebounded to 200 yuan / kg on February 1 after the Spring Festival, up 21% from before the festival. The profit level of silicon material was revised to 0.32 yuan / W, an increase of 37% over the pre-festival period. In addition, the price of downstream silicon wafers and batteries also rose. The transaction price of single crystal 182 silicon wafer / single crystal 182PERC battery rose 28% and 18% respectively from the January low on February 1st, while the transaction price of single crystal 182PERC module remained at 1.8yuan / W.

Demand warms up to support the upward movement of silicon.

At the end of 2022 and the beginning of January, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises is low, mainly in the consumption of inventory, less market trading volume, silicon enterprises continue to increase production and inventory. In the middle and late January, the raw material inventory of silicon wafer enterprises is gradually consumed to the critical line of "waiting for the pot", and the industry demand is generally expected to be good. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, at present, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has significantly increased to 80-90%, the downstream battery link is expected to be full production, and the component link is also obviously repaired by about 15%. The superposition of the above factors promotes the price of silicon to reach an inflection point.

Silicon oversupply throughout the year, a short-term rebound may be difficult to maintain.

The Silicon Industry Association expects Q1 production to exceed 315000 tons and reach 200000 tons per month by the end of the year. There is little pressure to hedge downstream demand increments, and there is a lack of support for silicon prices to continue to rise. The silicon production capacity has reached 1.2 million tons / year by the end of 2022, and may exceed 2.4 million tons / year by the end of 2023, which has obviously exceeded the global demand. The bank expects the overall trend of silicon prices to continue to decline slowly, with a price range of about 150-200 yuan / kg.

The policy goal is clear, the photovoltaic continues to be high.

On January 6, the National Energy Administration issued the Blue Book on the Development of New Power system (draft for soliciting opinions), which made it clear that new energy accounts for more than 40% of installed capacity / 20% of generating capacity in 2030. 2030, 2045 and 2060 are the important time nodes for the new power system to build strategic goals, and formulate the "three-step" development path of the new power system. On January 19th, the China Power Union released the report on the Analysis and Forecast of the National Power supply and demand situation in 2023, forecasting the overall tight balance of power supply and demand in 2023. In 2023, wind power and solar power will be installed by 65GW and 97GW, respectively, with an increase of 72% and 11% respectively over the same period last year. Superimposed overseas Europe and the United States, Asia-Pacific and other markets energy transformation process accelerated, the bank expects the world's new installed capacity will reach 340GW in 2023, maintaining a high growth rate of + 33.3%.

It is recommended to grasp two main lines:First, integrated enterprises or auxiliary materials leaders that have large marginal improvement in profitability, have the ability to withstand periodic fluctuations, have strong competition barriers and enjoy dividends in overseas markets, and recommend Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), 603806.SH and so on. Second, the new technology leads the market, the curtain of N-type battery opens, and granular silicon + CCZ has great potential. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Energy (688599.SH), Zhonglai (300393.SZ), Xiexin Technology (03800), Tiantong (600330.SH) and so on.

Risk Tips:Photovoltaic policy is not as expected; photovoltaic demand is lower than expected; progress in the promotion of new technologies is not as expected; production capacity is not as expected; and profits are seriously reduced as a result of intensified competition.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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