Zhitong Financial APP learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that the semiconductor industry has entered a historically undervalued range from the point of view of valuation, but the fundamental low has not yet appeared. Based on historical experience, the industry's downward phase usually lasts 1-2 years, and the bank expects an inflection point in Q3 next year. According to the history of the sox index, the inflection point of stock price is 2-9 months ahead of the inflection point of semiconductor sales. The bank believes that from the two dimensions of valuation and time, the industry already has strong configuration conditions. It is recommended to pay attention to general-purpose product companies and companies with strong competitiveness in the automotive field.
Key recommendations:Ziguang National Micro (002049.SZ), Ruixin Micro (603893.SH), Jingchen (688099.SH), Nanxin Micro (688052.SH); beneficiary targets: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ), 688141.SH (688141.SH), Sacred Bond (300661.SZ), National Core Technology (688262.SH).
The main points of Huaxi Securities are as follows:
Semiconductors have strong periodicity, and wafer shipments are the leading index in the industry.
According to the global semiconductor device sales data published by WSTS, there is an "M" cycle law in global semiconductors, that is, there are two upward and downward cycles every ten years or so. At present, the industry has experienced three cycles and is currently in the fourth cycle. The rapid development of the industry in the first stage, the intensification of competition in the second stage, the decline in the growth rate of the industry scale, and the further decrease in the growth rate of the concentrated industry in the third stage. Since 2009, shipments have gradually become an important factor affecting the cycle changes of the industry. Before 2009, semiconductor shipments rose for most of the time due to strong demand in the industry. The price during the period is the main factor that affects the industry cycle. After 2009, with the decline in the growth rate of industry demand and the increase of industry concentration, prices are relatively small for the industry during this period, and shipments have gradually become an important indicator affecting the industry cycle. The wafer shipping area directly reflects the semiconductor sales, and the shipping area can be used as a leading indicator of the prosperity of the industry.
The Fei-half index has the characteristics of periodic stocks, and the Shenwan semiconductor index has the characteristics of growing stocks.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index includes a total of 30 companies covering global semiconductor design, equipment, manufacturing, materials and other directions. At the same time, the bank found that since 2011, the Sox index has been driven by two wheels of valuation and performance, and the valuation logic has certain cyclical stock characteristics. Each round of market rise is mainly driven by valuation and performance, in the first half of the market, valuation and performance have entered the rising stage, in the second half of the market, the performance continues to show a rising state, but the valuation has entered a declining stage. During the period, the PE value as a whole fluctuated between 15 and 35. Shenwan Semiconductor Index valuation system is different from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, more with the characteristics of growth stocks, the valuation range is 35-150 (except 08-09), in the past two years gradually showing a certain periodic stock characteristics. With the further increase of industry attention and the gradual growth of companies in the index, the bank believes that the logic of cyclical stock valuation will be further deepened and valuation flexibility is expected to be reduced.
Automobile intelligence / electrification is expected to lead the industry to grow for the fourth time.
Electric vehicles are expected to lead the industry's fourth cycle. With the improvement of automobile electrification and intelligence, the consumption of semiconductors will be greatly increased, and the amount of automotive chips is expected to reach about 1000-1200. The products cover various types of products, such as storage, simulation, computing, sensing and so on. According to Techsugar, the total value of electric vehicles to semiconductor devices is expected to reach between $1500 and $2000, three to four times that of conventional cars and mobile phones. According to Autohome Inc's statistics, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 10.2% in 2021. According to the global average output of 90 million vehicles, the total semiconductor value of the automobile industry in 2021 is 43.1 billion yuan, accounting for 9.71% of the total semiconductor sales. Assuming that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 25% in 2025, cars are conservatively expected to account for 15% of semiconductor device sales in the future.
Risk Tips:The semiconductor industry recovers less than expected; competition in the semiconductor industry intensifies; and the economic recovery falls short of expectations.