Zhitong Financial APP learned that Soochow Securities said in its perovskite industry depth report that with the promotion of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, perovskite is expected to become the next generation of photovoltaic cell technology direction, focusing on:First,Perovskite components: Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Trina Solar Energy (688599.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd (688223.SZ), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SZ), focus on Oriental Sunrise (300118.SZ), Hangxiao Steel structure (600477.SH), Olympic Union Electronics (300585.SZ), etc.Second,Equipment: focus on 300724.SZ, 300751.SZ, 000821.SZ, Dazhou Laser (002008), 300776.SZ Laser, 688170.SH Laser, 688025.SH, 688378.SH, Dehu Film (unlisted)Third,Packaging: Foster (603806.SH), Haiyou New Materials (688680.SH), pay attention to Tianyang New Materials (603330.SH), Intelligent Technology (300566.SZ)Fourth,TCO Glass: pay attention to Golden Crystal Technology (600586.SH) and 600819.SH Glass.Fifth,Pay attention to the leading start-up companies of perovskite: Xina Optoelectronics, Xiexin Optoelectronics, Renshuo Light Energy, Polar Electric Light Energy, Yoneng Technology, Black Crystal Optoelectronics, etc. (unlisted).
The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:
Fast efficiency, low cost, full perovskite potential!Perovskite is an organic and inorganic metal halide ABX3, which can be synthesized artificially with hundreds of thousands of formulations and low photoelectric loss. In terms of efficiency: the theoretical efficiency limit of crystalline silicon battery is 29.4%, and the highest is 26.8%, while the Shockley limit of single junction perovskite is 33.7%. The formula can be adjusted to approach the theoretical upper limit. The development potential of perovskite lamination is wider! In terms of cost: perovskite materials can be synthesized artificially, the cost of raw materials is low, and it is not easy to be limited. The cost of perovskite materials for mass production at GW level accounts for about 3%. The component cost is less than 1.00 yuan / 10GW, and the component cost can be reduced to 0.5-0.60 yuan / W. Application: perovskite is light and thin, flexible and adjustable in color. It is competitive in BIPV and roof photovoltaic market. It can be widely used in various scenes and is expected to become a new generation of photovoltaic star materials.
Single knot / laminated multi-development, perovskite technology blossoms!The structure of perovskite battery is mainly divided into single junction and multi-junction battery. The structure of single junction battery is divided into mesoporous structure and planar formal or trans structure. At present, the industrialization of single junction battery is mainly planar trans structure. The laminated structure is divided into three parts: narrow band gap bottom cell, interconnection / tunneling junction and wide band gap top battery; the cost of stack at both ends is low, the parasitic absorption is less, and the current of the two cells needs to be matched strictly, which has the prospect of industrial production; at present, the research progress of perovskite / crystalline silicon lamination is leading, and the laboratory efficiency can reach 32.5%. Different technical routes have their own advantages and disadvantages. at present, large crystal silicon manufacturers tend to choose perovskite / silicon lamination route, and the all-perovskite route is more suitable for start-ups.
The process casts the core competitiveness, and the localization of the equipment can be expected.The production of perovskite battery modules requires four kinds of equipment: coating, laser, coating and packaging, and the value of coating equipment is the highest. At present, the total investment of MW production line equipment is about 120 million yuan, of which the investment proportion of coating: laser: coating: packaging equipment is 50%, 25%, 15%, 10%. The localization of coating equipment will be the main way to reduce the cost in the future. Perovskite layer as the core layer of the battery is prepared by slit coating mechanism. Dehu film industrialization process is leading, with a market share of more than 70% in 2022. The localization process of laser equipment is fast, and the packaging equipment undertakes the packaging of crystalline silicon components, which is expected to benefit traditional suppliers.
Technology + policy + financial assistance, the dawn of industrialization is emerging!The industrialization stage of perovskite has many problems, such as life and stability, difficulty of large area preparation, lead pollution and so on. At present, the perovskite industry can deal with it by means of additives, component engineering, equipment process improvement, strengthening packaging and so on. The association promotes the establishment of industry standards, and the perovskite products of many companies have passed the IEC double 85 test and entered the stage of mass production. At present, Xinna Optoelectronics, Xiexin Optoelectronics, Pole Electro-optic Energy industrialization is in the lead, 100 MW production line has been built, GW production line preparation, 23 years may have GW equipment bidding; Zhongneng / Renshuo / Wandu Solar Energy, Baoxin Technology, Olympian Electronics, Ningde era 100 megawatt production line is being built, it is expected that in 23-25-30, the national total perovskite component production capacity 1.15/6.8/136.8GW, industrialization is imminent!
The market space is broad, the perovskite prospect stars sea!From the demand side, the improvement of photovoltaic installed demand and the improvement of permeability lead to a broad perovskite market. In 2025 / 2030, the global perovskite demand for ground power stations is 0.3/25.0GW, and the distributed perovskite demand is 3.5GW 20202030. The overall demand is estimated to be 3.5/92.8GW, corresponding to a market space of 4.5 billion / 83.4 billion yuan and a 2022-2030CAGR of 145%, with broad development prospects.