Sina Foreign Exchange News, spot gold experienced a wave of decline after a slight fluctuation on Wednesday (March 20), as the dovish remarks of the Federal Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan weakened the influence of the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations, putting a slight pressure on gold. The main focus of the day was the Fed's interest rate decision, because the market generally expected the Fed to maintain a dovish position. At the same time, after the US manufacturing data fell short of expectations last Friday, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have heated up. This is a key factor in the recent weakening of the US dollar. The latest fund interest rate futures market shows that the market expects a rate cut once in 2019 30% this month Earlier, the probability was expected to be almost zero, which suggests that the market is increasing its bearish bet on the US dollar, thus supporting gold.
Another key factor affecting the recent trend of gold prices is the progress of Brexit. Theresa May's Brexit plan fell into chaos this Tuesday. Speaker of the House of Commons Berkau ruled that Teresa must amend the Brexit agreement, which has been rejected twice before it can be submitted to Parliament for a third vote. This caught the Prime Minister's office by surprise. The British government is trying to find a way to deal with it; the market generally expects that Teresa May's agreement is unlikely to be voted on this week. This means that when Teresa attended the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday, her plan to delay Brexit for a short period of time would increase the probability of being rejected by the European Union. The risk of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal supports the price of gold.
Gold analysis:
On the gold side, gold rebounded again overnight. Looking back on yesterday's market, the price of gold relied on the 1302 line support and the 1308 line was blocked. The European price retraced to $1303.6, the Asian market low remained unbroken, and the buying support at the 1,300 mark was strong. The price of gold rebounded again and broke higher. During the US market, the price of gold continued to rise to 1310.8 US dollars. The final closing price was at 1306.1 US dollars/ounce, and the final closing price was at 1306.1 US dollars/oz. The daily charge was a Xiaoyang K line;
Regarding yesterday's gold market, the view in our article (spot gold rebounded above 1300 and continued to break high) was very clear. Gold prices fluctuated and rose as planned yesterday. The article also emphasized that the daily trend was positive. The bullish trend is obvious. There will definitely not be much room for intraday retracement. The retracement in the European market is exactly where we entered the market at 1303-1304. The highest rebound in the US market to the 1310 area is still not very large. Today's gold price rebounded mainly in the short term. Bullish treatment.
On the daily gold line, after a big negative trend, the K-line rebounded for 3 consecutive trading days. The upper 1311 line resistance has yet to be broken through. If it can break through this resistance position today, the upper side is expected to continue to look at the 1315-1320 area. The lower support is at the 1300 mark of the 10-day EMA. Today's Asian market, the gold price has slightly pulled back to the 1303.7 line. Currently, there is a short-term rebound trend. The 1303 area is the low point of yesterday's gold price retracement in the European market. It is also the 5-day average of the daily average. The position is optimistic about a wave of increase. We have already given it in the Asian market The 1304 first-line bullish strategy has been introduced. Currently, the gold price of Weixin gnm2312 is still consolidating its position. We can just wait patiently and set the defensive position at 1300; in terms of technical indicators, the daily gold price rebounded, and the short-term MA moving average showed signs of moving above the 5-day EMA. The MACD evolved from the previous dead fork to the gold fork. Red bars show momentum. The overall gold bullish pattern on the daily chart is dominant. Today's gold thinking suggests bullish treatment on 1303.
Gold reference suggestions: go long directly around 1304, lose 1300, target 1312-1314;