Author: Shi Qian
Source: brokerage China
This morning, half an hour after the opening of trading, the rise and fall ratio of the entire A-share market has almost reached a state of 50-50. This is much stronger than the entire market's expectations for A-shares over the weekend. But the trend of two plates is very weak, one is the medical plate, the other is the liquor plate.
The official WeChat of the Central Commission for discipline Inspection suddenly issued a statement entitled "strong sense of Prevention and covert behavior." Investigate and deal with the "virtue rises ten" article on the transfer of interests in the medical industry, which directly points to corruption in the medical industry. The Hang Seng Medical Index plunged more than 4%. In addition, a prohibition document signed PICC property insurance also spread online, and wine ETF fell more than 3% at one point, and then narrowed somewhat. PICC also responded.
In these two trading days, the biggest variable in the market is foreign investment. In early trading today, foreign investors continued to sell net, and the southbound capital of Hong Kong stocks was also relatively weak. So, how does the market go next?
The Central Commission for discipline Inspection suddenly made a sound.
This morning, the official WeChat of the Central Commission for discipline Inspection suddenly issued a statement entitled "strong sense of Prevention and covert behavior." Investigate and deal with the medical industry benefit transfer must be "virtue rises ten" article, directly name the medical industry benefit transfer.
The article points out that recently, the State Administration of Market Supervision has reported five typical cases of special law enforcement actions against unfair competition, including two cases of commercial bribery in the form of scientific research sponsorship and kickbacks in the medical and health industry. According to the circular, with the increasing efforts to investigate and deal with cases of commercial bribery, some pharmaceutical companies have adopted more covert and complex means to put on a "cloak of legality" for their bribery. For example, some enterprises transfer illegal interests in the name of sponsoring scientific research funds and academic conference fees; some pay hospital staff kickbacks in the process of pharmaceutical purchase and sale; some take bribes by inflating drug prices in production links and false transactions in circulation links.
The article also points out that with the increasing efforts of investigation and punishment, the problem of wind corruption in the medical field continues to mutate and escalate iteratively. The former is "incorruptible and simple", the queen plays the "trader", and the bribe-taker's crime is hidden. Hide identity, operate behind the scenes, and bribe payers are more vigilant. "customized" bidding, "avoidance" entrustment procurement, "equity dividend", "welfare" research and training, hidden variation in the way of benefit transmission, putting on a "legal cloak" for bribery.
The article believes that the medical field is highly professional, the related violations of discipline and law are hidden, and the problems are not easy to be detected. But no matter how hidden the means of corruption are, they will always leave traces. There are still traces to follow in the implementation of "small incision" breakthrough and "targeted" investigation and punishment.
It may be affected by this, coupled with the turmoil in the external markets, Hang Seng Medical fell sharply in early trading this morning.
Hong Kong stocks related medical sector led the decline.
At the second plenary session of the 20th Central Commission for discipline Inspection, senior officials stressed that the situation in the struggle against corruption is still grim and complex, and the task of curbing increments and eliminating stocks is still arduous. We must deepen the treatment of both the symptoms and the root causes, systematic governance, and push forward as a whole, do not dare to rot, do not want to rot. The Communique of the second Plenary session of the 20th Central Commission for discipline Inspection put forward: "resolutely investigate and deal with new types of corruption and hidden corruption." It can be expected that corruption in the health care system may continue.
Prohibition has gone viral.
There was another piece of news going viral in the market this morning. A prohibition document signed by PICC property Insurance has also been circulated online.
According to the contents of the documents circulated: in order to thoroughly implement the spirit of the eight regulations of the Central Committee and further promote the comprehensive development of strict party administration to the depth and extension to the grass-roots level, the "prohibition order" is now issued to the company's institutions at all levels and all employees as follows:
It is strictly forbidden to drink alcohol during internal official activities.
Second, it is strictly forbidden to drink alcohol on working days (including working hours, off-duty hours) and other working hours: if alcohol is really needed in foreign affairs work, it must be carried out in strict accordance with the foreign affairs work system.
Third, it is strictly forbidden to use public funds for banquets and alcohol in violation of regulations.
Fourth, it is strictly forbidden to participate in banquets and alcohol that may affect the impartial performance of official duties.
Fifth, it is strictly forbidden to drink alcohol at any time, anywhere and on any occasion.
Sixth, illegal acts such as drunken driving, quarrelling and stirring up trouble are strictly prohibited.
For those who violate the above-mentioned "prohibition", the company will be punished and held accountable in accordance with the Communist Party of China Disciplinary regulations and the relevant provisions of the company's internal administrative penalties. Party committees at all levels should earnestly strengthen leadership, constantly strengthen the education and management of employees of their own units and departments, and ensure that the "prohibition order" is prohibited. Discipline inspection commissions at all levels should earnestly strengthen supervision, promptly find problems, resolutely correct them, and seriously deal with those who violate discipline in accordance with rules and regulations in the face of the wind. The "top leaders" and leading bodies at all levels should abide by and strictly enforce the "prohibition order" and consciously accept supervision.
Affected by this, the spirit sector, with a market capitalization of nearly 5 trillion this morning, fell across the board. At one point, wine ETF fell by more than 3%, before narrowing. The market is worried that the notice, if not forged, is likely to be expected by the market as a harbinger of broader action.
PICC property insurance responded that it would not comment publicly on the internal documents.
Some brokerage institutions said that today's spirits sector has a large correction, mainly due to the PICC property insurance "alcohol ban" that came out last night:
1. The CIRC has had prohibition documents as early as 2017, and there is no significant increase in the scope, so there is no need for over-interpretation.
2. Governments and units at all levels have mature relevant systems and clear requirements, but in recent years, the spread of dotted documents will still cause short-term panic, and the mood will be repaired quickly, which has never had a substantial impact on the fundamental situation.
3. After years of adjustment, the consumption environment and scene of the liquor industry have entered a relatively stable and healthy balance. Under the clear main goal of stable growth this year, there will be no crackdown policies such as "consumption tax" and "ban on XX" that go beyond reasonable limits.
4. It is now clear that this year is a year in which the fundamentals of the liquor industry are relatively strong. The turnover rate of moving sales in the first half of the year is faster than expected, and inflation prices are expected to rise again in the second half of the year, with catalytic series throughout the year. Gaojing demeanor valuation will be relatively stable in a relatively high position, the excess part focuses on grasping the phased investment opportunities, the short-term decline under the influence of emotion is a very good opportunity to buy.
CITIC believes that the overall consumer market for the Spring Festival in 2023 shows a relatively high demeanor, and the dynamic sales of spirits are excellent, and the mobile sales of famous liquors such as Wuliangye are expected to grow by more than 20%. Considering that the business banquet and dinner scene will continue to be repaired from February to March, we expect 2023Q1 mobile sales to grow. Short-term plate valuation marches to a more reasonable level, the focus of post-festival and 23Q2 will mainly focus on the price performance of famous wines, while on the basis of reasonable valuation, long-term sound industry fundamentals and short-term prosperity, any marginal rise will promote plate performance.
What is the attitude of foreign investors?
The northbound funds that supported the early market in the last two trading days suddenly turned around and sold. This morning, there was a large net selling market again, and the effort continued to increase.
So, what exactly do foreign investors think?
According to market data, Hong Kong fund managers believe that foreign investors have different methods and will wait for 50% of the data to come out. China's economic performance is good, including GDP, PMI, and subsequent judgments of enterprises before they are willing to increase the proportion. After the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks remains relatively good, foreign investors will continue to stay. The turnover of Hong Kong stocks in recent days is about NT $150 billion. Last year, when the situation was relatively miserable, it was only NT $60 billion to NT $70 billion. When it is not active, it is a point for foreign investors to consider that they cannot find rivals.
The logic of foreign investment has not changed. They want to see whether the Chinese government has set a clear economic growth target at the time of the two sessions in March, and secondly, the intensity of implementation. A month has passed this year, and a large-scale stimulus policy has yet to be seen. Whether there will be consumption stimulus measures in March may be the catalyst for foreign investors to increase their positions.
Liu Chenming of Tianfeng Securities said that when the position of the spread between stocks and bonds is high, such as + 1X~+2X standard deviation, it shows that stocks and bonds reflect strong economic expectations, so be careful of the risk that fundamentals are lower than expected. When the position of the spread between stock and debt is low, such as-1X~-2X standard deviation, it shows that stocks and bonds reflect very pessimistic economic expectations, then any marginal change in fundamentals is likely to exceed expectations.
At the end of October, the spread between stock and debt yields pierced the-2X standard deviation, when no one was interested and everyone was very pessimistic about fundamentals. At the beginning of the year, the spread between equity and debt yields was near-1.5X standard deviation, and the fundamental expectations reflected by the overall market were still low. Back to the present, although A shares rebounded a lot in January as a whole, the current position of the spread between stock and debt returns is still below-1x standard deviation. on the whole, this position does not reflect too many fundamental expectations. our judgment is still looking for opportunities.
Edit / phoebe