According to a research report released by Huaan Securities, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a notice on organizing pilot work in the pilot area of fully electrified vehicles in the public domain, requiring a significant increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles in new and updated vehicles, with urban public transport, rental, sanitation, postal express delivery and urban logistics and distribution striving to reach 80 per cent, Zhitong Financial APP learned. The bank believes that the "notice" shows that the new energy subsidy policy will tilt from passenger vehicles to electrification in the public domain, focusing on urban logistics and distribution, sanitation vehicles and commercial heavy trucks.
Recommended concerns are as follows:Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH), Foton Motor (600166.SH) (new energy logistics and distribution light truck), Yutong heavy Industry (600817.SH), Fulongma (603686.SH) (sanitation vehicle), FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ), China heavy truck (000951.SZ) (port heavy load traction), Lingdian Electric Control (688667.SH) (commercial vehicle hybrid electric control); Hanchuan Intelligence (688022.SH) (heavy truck switching).
The main points of Huaan Securities are as follows:
At present, the process of automobile electrification in the public domain of our country is slow.
By the end of 2020, new energy vehicles accounted for about 10% of the total number of cars in the national public domain. The slow electrification process has made it difficult for some areas to achieve the goal of "comprehensive electrification of public domain vehicles in 2035" put forward in the New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035). By 2020, the penetration rate of new energy in areas such as official vehicles is only 0.7%, that of sanitation vehicles is 3.8%, that of urban logistics and distribution is only 5.9%, that of airport vehicles is 7.5%, that of taxis is 9.5%, that of postal vehicles is 14.1%, that of heavy trucks in specific scenarios is 17.7%, and that of urban public transport is 66.2%. Therefore, the release of the "notice" will play a policy guiding role to speed up the overall electrification process of vehicles in the public domain.
There is a huge room for growth in the field of urban logistics distribution.
By 2020, the overall number of cars in the field of urban logistics and distribution is 6.697 million, accounting for about 2% of the total number of cars in the public domain, and the market scale is the largest. However, the number of new energy logistics vehicles is only 393000, accounting for 37.4% of new energy vehicles in the public domain. The scale of new energy vehicles does not match the overall number of new energy vehicles. And the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in this field is only 5.9%, which is too far from the target permeability of 80%. Assuming that the average growth rate of domestic light truck ownership is 9.5% from 2016 to 2020 as the growth rate of urban logistics vehicles, it is roughly estimated that the number of urban logistics vehicles will be 10.553 million in 2025, thus the number of new energy logistics vehicles will be 8.442 million. If realized in five years, the average annual incremental demand will reach 1.61 million vehicles, with broad room for growth. Under the opportunity of the comprehensive electrification of vehicles in the public domain, the broad growth space and market scale in the field of urban logistics distribution are expected to make it the core of this round of electrification in the public domain.
There is a broad incremental space in the field of sanitation.
By 2020, the overall number of sanitation vehicles is 575000, and the number of new energy vehicles is only 22000, resulting in only 3.8% of electrified vehicles, which is not a small gap from the target permeability of 80%. Assuming that the average growth rate of municipal sanitation vehicles is 20% from 2016 to 2020, it is roughly estimated that the number of sanitation vehicles will be 1.45 million and that of new energy vehicles will be 1.16 million in 2025. If achieved in five years, the average annual incremental demand will reach 227000 vehicles, which means more room for growth. With the help of the double advantages of policy stimulus and market potential, coupled with the advantages of new energy sanitation vehicles in operational efficiency, the new energy sanitation market is also an important direction of this round of electrification in the public domain.
Heavy-duty vehicles also have good growth potential.
By 2022, the domestic heavy truck market has about 8.7 million vehicles, and the new energy heavy truck market has 46000 vehicles, with a permeability of 0.53%. Based on the growth rate of 12.9% in 2022, it is roughly estimated that the number of heavy trucks in 2025 will be 12.52 million, and the number of new energy heavy trucks will be 10.01 million, so there will be an annual increase of 3.339 million vehicles in three years, with broad room for growth.
Risk Tips:The policy fell short of expectations; market sales fell short of expectations; and the economic recovery fell short of expectations.