It is predicted that the net profit of homing in 2022 will increase by 47.5% and 61.5% compared with the same period last year.
The company forecasts a net profit of 400,438 million yuan in 2022, + 47.49% net profit of 61.50% compared with the same period last year, deducting 315% of 373 million yuan of non-net profit, and 56.31% of non-net profit, compared with the same period last year. Of this total, the net profit of 4Q22 is RMB 0.64 million, year-on-year-22.89%, month-on-month, non-net profit RMB 3 million-61 million, year-on-year-98.0% copyright 59.3%, month-on-month-96.1% copyright 19.7%, the performance forecast is in line with our expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
The release of polymer production capacity supports performance growth, and the optimization of product structure promotes the profit center. We believe that the growth of the company's polymer materials business in the past 22 years is mainly due to (1) capacity release: the overall capacity release of the company leads to performance growth, and we expect the production capacity to increase by 22% to 550000 tons by the end of 22. (2) Product structure optimization: ultra-high pressure materials and shielding materials have high gross profit characteristics, we expect the first phase of ultra-high pressure production to contribute to the shipment of 110kv ultra-high pressure materials of more than 10,000 tons, at the same time, with the release of Huzhou shielding material capacity, it is expected to improve the comprehensive profit level of polymer materials. Looking forward to 23 years, we believe that the ultra-high pressure second phase of the 20,000-ton project will further support the production of ultra-high pressure materials, which is expected to continue to boost profits. In the medium and long term, the trend of urban high-voltage overhead lines entering the ground is obvious, and there is a broad space for domestic replacement of ultra-high pressure materials above 110kv grade.
Investment in the downstream power grid remains high, driving the growth of power cable business. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, in 22 years, the national network completed an investment of 501.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0%, and maintained a high level. Benefiting from the high level of investment in the downstream power grid, we expect the company's power cable product shipments to increase by 10% and 20% in 22 years. Looking forward to 23 years, new infrastructure and power grid investment is the main source of economic growth, the national network planning investment of more than 520 billion yuan, will continue to drive power cable business demand. Looking back, we believe that the main growth point of the company's power cable business is (1) the construction of a large domestic scenic base leads to the rapid growth of distribution network demand. (2) Product structure upgrade: the company's robot wire harness order has been accelerated since 22 years, which is expected to open up a broad space for domestic substitution by virtue of technology, customers and other advantages.
The charging business is developing steadily and the operational efficiency is leading the industry. The company achieved 425 million kilowatt-hours of charging capacity in 2022, an increase of 6 percent over the same period last year; as of 12M22, the number of public charging piles was 26484, an increase of 34.9 percent over the same period last year, including 14347 DC charging piles, an increase of 19.8 percent over the same period last year, and 2320 charging stations. The company's 4Q22 achieved a charge of 104 million, a slight decrease of 3.6% compared with the same period last year. Looking forward to 23 years, we believe that the increase in the number of new energy vehicles will continue to drive the construction of charging piles, while the reduction of epidemic disturbance and travel recovery will greatly increase the utilization rate of charging piles, and the progress of the company's charging pile business is optimistic.
Profit forecast and valuation
To maintain the net profit forecast of RMB 437 million in 2022max 23, introduce the net profit forecast of RMB 794 million in 2024, maintain the target price of RMB 12.5 and outperform the industry rating, the current stock price and target price correspond to 16.3x/12.0x Pmax E and 22.3x/16.2x Pmax E in 2023Universe 24, respectively, there is 36.2% upside space.
Risk.
With the macroeconomic downturn, the number of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and the price of upstream raw materials exceeded expectations.