The APP of Zhitong Finance learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the current absolute value of property sales and the first full employment of state-owned enterprises by central enterprises in August mean that property sales have reached an absolute bottom area, and new construction is expected to hit bottom before 2023H1. The capital construction is abundant, and the physical workload is expected to be landed in 2023, and the building materials sector is expected to recover in 2023. The bank recommends leading Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), Rabbit (002043.SZ), Subot (603916.SH), Quartz shares (603688.SH), Shangfeng cement (000672.SZ), Anhui Conch Cement (600585.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Pu Nai shares (002225.SZ) Continue to recommend Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH), China Wood Technology (002080.SZ), China Stonehenge (600176.SH), Xinyi Glass (00868), Qibin Group (601636.SH).
Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:
Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.We believe that the current absolute value of real estate sales and the first full employment of state-owned enterprises in August mean that real estate sales have reached an absolute bottom area, and new construction is expected to hit bottom before 2023H1. The capital construction is abundant, and the physical workload is expected to be landed in 2023, and the building materials sector is expected to recover in 2023. We recommend leading Oriental Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, Rabbit, Subot, Quartz shares, Shangfeng cement, Anhui Conch Cement, Xinyi Solar, Punai shares; continue to recommend Zhongfu Shenying Eagle, Zhongliang Science and Technology, China Stonehenge, Xinyi Glass, Qibin Group.
Leading building materials stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022 domestic public offering institutions as a whole and Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect positions increased compared with the third quarter of 2022:The number of building materials stocks in the top 10 of the fund rose from 28 in the second quarter of 2022 to 30 in the third quarter of 2022. The top five major positions in building materials were Oriental Yuhong, Quartz shares, Anhui Conch Cement, Weixing New Materials and three trees, respectively, and the holdings of funds accounted for 12.19%, 10.24%, 5.53%, 3.13% and 2.48% respectively, while compared with the 2018Q3 at the bottom of the last cycle of building materials, the top five major positions in building materials were Anhui Conch Cement, Dongfang Yuhong, China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials and Huaxin cement. The holdings of shareholding funds accounted for 22.96%, 14.57%, 9.03%, 5.30% and 3.62% respectively. With the shift in real estate policy since November 2022, Oriental Yuhong has returned to the largest fund holding in building materials.
Measured by month-to-month changes (the proportion of shares in the fund's heavy positions at the end of 2022Q4 compared to the end of 2022Q3): Zusheng Science and Technology, Daya Sheng Elephant and Jidong cement were reduced by institutions, accounting for 3.63%, 1.63% and 0.5% of tradable shares, respectively, and increased holdings for Oriental Yuhong, Rabbit Baby and three trees, accounting for 3.67%, 2.49% and 2.22%, respectively. The overall allocation of building materials in the fourth quarter has declined compared with the previous quarter.
Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect concentrated on increasing its holdings of Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Tabai Group, Jinjing Technology and Weixing New Materials in the fourth quarter.The proportion of total equity changed to 3.76%, 1.61%, 1.07%, 0.84% and 0.83% respectively, and the reduction was concentrated in Anhui Conch Cement, Keshun shares, Yonggao shares, Jinyuan shares and Qibin Group, accounting for 0.69%, 0.87%, 0.63%, 0.36% and 0.08% of the total equity respectively. At the end of the period, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect shares were concentrated in Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials and Anhui Conch Cement, accounting for 13.15%, 11.38%, 9.36% and 4.62% of the total equity respectively. Hong Kong Stock Tong concentrated its holdings in Xinyi Glass, China Conch Venture, China Alliance and Luoyang Glass in the fourth quarter, accounting for 0.47%, 0.89%, 0.47% and 0.62% of the total equity.
Risk Tips:The macroeconomic downturn has led to a rise in the price of raw materials.