1. With the iteration of B2B industry, the company continues to make breakthroughs in transformation.
The business development process of the company is divided into three stages, namely, Guolian Resource Network, Duoduo platform, and International Lianyun platform, corresponding to the three development stages of China's B2B industry. Through years of experience, the company has summed up the standardization process of order collection mode to optimize the capital operation efficiency and reduce its inventory risk. The operation status of the collection mode of the company can be reflected by the indicators of pre-collection (speed index) and working capital turnover (capital operation efficiency).
2. Corporate growth mechanism: power, constraint, boundary
We believe that the core elements of corporate growth lie in three aspects: 1) the driving force for the company to maintain rapid growth; 2) the constraints that restrict the company to break through the higher growth rate; and 3) the revenue boundary for the company to maintain rapid growth.
2.1 Factor 1: the driving force of income growth
The driving force of corporate income growth mainly comes from the prerequisite of low industrial penetration, the commercial essence of the realization of upstream and downstream comprehensive bargaining power, and the potential optimization of future income quality.
2.2 element II: growth constraints
We believe that the constraints that limit the company's growth to a faster rate are industry scarcity, upstream supply capacity and working capital investment.
2.3 element 3: future growth boundaries
Suppose the leverage ratio of working capital is L, the amount of own capital is C, the net profit of each period is P, the net interest rate of the company is p, and the existing income of the company is R. We believe that the company's growth model can be divided into three stages: 1) the period of rapid growth, and the Rmar of the ideal income critical point for the company to maintain the rapid growth of business is Ro+C/L+ Σ Pi/L;2) stable growth period, assuming that the dividend ratio of the company's annual profit is D, then the ideal stable growth rate of revenue and profit g is g-(px (1MFT) / [LMAIP (1MIT D)] 3) in the stable profit period, after the company reaches a certain market penetration rate, the company maintains a stable total profit every year. If the total market size of the track is TAM and the medium-and long-term industrial penetration rate is m, then the total stable net profit of the company is P = TAM x m x p. We estimate that the revenue critical point of the company's rapid growth phase is about 232.5 billion yuan (expected in 2025). After reaching the revenue critical point, the company's stable growth rate is about 30%. At the same time, we expect the company's profit level to remain at a stable level around 2028.
We estimate that the revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 729.48 and 1.15512, 166.10 billion yuan, and the net profit will be 2.679 billion, 1.290.88 and 2.679 billion respectively. We use the PEG method to value the company at about 60.25 billion yuan, with a corresponding target price of 120.82 yuan. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: 1) there are subjective assumptions in the relevant data calculations; 2) companies in other industries listed in the report are not fully comparable; 3) the expansion of many platforms and cloud factories is not as expected; 4) the market competition is intensified; 5) the extreme imbalance between supply and demand on the track where the platform is located has undermined the nature of the company's business; 6) the company has experienced stock price changes recently.