Zhitong Financial APP learned that China Merchants issued a research report saying that he maintained the judgment of putting beta first before alpha throughout the year, and continued to comprehensively recommend liquor (high-end is the basic plate, sub-high-end layout just in time), beer, catering supply chain and condiments before April. Liquor label suggestions focus on Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Luzhou laojiao (000568.SZ), etc.; Volkswagen brand recommendations focus on China Resources Beer (00291), Richen shares (603755.SH), Haitian Flavor Industry (603288.SH), Yili shares (600887.SH) and so on.
Overall: the scene is driven by recovery, exceeding China Merchants's previous (optimistic) expectations.
China Merchants made some predictions before the Spring Festival. At that time, the overall prediction was relatively optimistic (the market was divided on the recovery of consumption), but after the Spring Festival, the growth of the final range and the recovery situation of the scene were better than China Merchants's previous optimistic judgment.
From the official data, the performance of the data is relatively good, including returning home consumption, gift consumption, rural cooking and so on, which has formed a relatively high consumption peak in recent years. At present, a lot of data are only in the consumer side, some have not been reflected in the shipping side of the enterprise, there is still a transmission process, reflected in the dealer out of stock and so on.
What is mentioned above is some pre-festival and mid-festival situations. well, looking back from now on for two weeks to a month, China Merchants believes that it will continue to strengthen, with a more obvious improvement on the month-on-month basis. Including public catering, there will still be a relatively large enthusiasm for dining, especially in the sinking market, the Spring Festival in cities below the third and fourth lines is an important starting point, and the first starting point of passive social interaction (first-and second-tier cities may be that New Year's Day begins to have some passive social scenes, but sunken cities are infected a little later, including greater vigilance to the virus), leading to the overall starting point moving back to the Spring Festival. After passive social interaction, people gradually let down their vigilance against the virus and will participate in some active social activities more actively.
In addition, there are some banquets. The Hefei market has started to hold some large-scale banquets since the fourth and fifth days of junior high school, and there will also be relatively full people in the next two weeks, which are also relatively large after the festival. for example, the investment of spirits (hot spots of sugar and wine parties) and students' return to school can also see obvious marginal improvement in March and April.
Although many people think that this Spring Festival is beyond expectations, China Merchants believes that this exceeding expectations is not the end, and the recovery of many scenes is a starting point for positive feedback. China Merchants also maintains that the Spring Festival peak season will be lengthened, and there are more positive feedback judgments on the recovery of some scenes from February to April.
Spirit: quickly clean up the baggage and recover faster than expected.
China Merchants said that we can see that the current recovery is indeed relatively fast, but there are certain differences in the height of recovery. China Merchants did a research on the benchmarking market in Beijing before the festival, and on the whole, he felt that it was no problem for the recovered cities to reach above last year's level. At the same time, China Merchants also made an overall mobile sales situation in the week before the split section and two weeks during the Spring Festival. The overall growth rate was very fast, most of which were more than 30%. He also saw that the feedback from many dealers could reach 50%, 60%. This is why some of the previous gaps can be made up quickly.
Around January 10, many dealers reported that it was expected to decline by 20% Rue 30%, but so far, after China Merchants's multi-verification, except for some of the high-end shipping problems (mobile sales are very good, just because many high-end need to clean up inventory in the fourth quarter of last year, shipments are too slow), most high-end and real estate wines are generally flat or growing throughout the Spring Festival compared with the same period last year. Sub-high-end mobile sales is also a leading indicator, mobile sales started, delivery, transmission to the report is also a matter of time, and then superimposed on the current many plates there are some rush market, even if the delivery payment growth is slow, but moving sales up, the stock price feedback is also very strong. Therefore, China Merchants believes that the second high-end from February to March, April is still in the banquet market, investment promotion, and so on, the marginal change is also very big.
To sum up, at present, high-end and real estate wines are good, especially Wuliangye was expected to be very low, now with very good brand pull, the data is also very good, many areas are out of stock, fast replenishment after the festival. Although there is a gap in the sub-high end, China Merchants is not worried, because the data of mobile sales have improved rapidly, and the growth rate in the two-week range of the Spring Festival has reached more than 20%. It is only a matter of time to make up for the gap, and there is still a low base in the second quarter. the apparent growth rate is supported.
Volkswagen: pay attention to the B end, and the food and beverage end in February is expected to continue with high elasticity.
China Merchants pointed out that the overall data of the companies in January was not particularly good, because January last year was a complete sales month, while this year there is the Spring Festival, which reduces the stock volume by 10 days, and last year's base is relatively high. So the January data is also quite divergent, in addition to some directly facing the catering enterprises, most of the C-side enterprises still have some pressure.
However, looking at moving sales, there is a decline in dairy stores such as Yili Mengniu, local markets such as gifts and nuts are out of stock, and the inventory of condiments and catering channels is also declining significantly, with some dealers feedback that the replenishment volume after the holiday is 50-60% (20% in a normal year). To sum up, although the January data are general and divergent, China Merchants predicts that many Volkswagen companies will show a very obvious improvement in February, and a non-linear (2-3 times) growth, on the one hand, from the continuation of strong demand for catering. On the other hand, it also comes from the replenishment behavior after the inventory decline in January.
Investment advice:Maintain the judgment of beta before alpha throughout the year, and continue to comprehensively recommend spirits (high-end is the basic plate, sub-high-end layout just-in-time), beer, catering supply chain and condiments before April.
The subject matter of liquor:Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) / Wuliangye (000858.SZ) / Luzhou laojiao (000568.SZ), Yanghe Stock (002304.SZ), Old White dry Liquor (600559.SH) (the data is good, you can boldly increase your holdings when the valuation is cheap).
The subject matter of Volkswagen:Catering chain (China Resources Beer (00291) / Tsing Tao Beer (600600.SH) / Chongqing Beer (600132.SH), Richen shares (603755.SH) / Yihai International (01579) / Qianwei Central Chef (001215.SZ), Haitian Flavor Industry (603288.SH) / Zhongju High-tech (600872.SH); non-catering (Yili shares (600887.SH) / Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) / Xianle Health (300791.SZ) / Weizhixiang (605089.SH)).
Risk Tips:The epidemic affected the decline in demand, rising costs, increased competition, and so on.