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中国银河证券:春节动销回暖 食品饮料行业复苏在途

China Galaxy Securities: Spring Festival sales are picking up, and the food and beverage industry is recovering

Zhitong Finance ·  Feb 2, 2023 15:32

China Galaxy Securities has released a research report saying that the national epidemic has accelerated to reach its peak, driving the rapid repair of the consumption scene during the Spring Festival holiday, Zhitong Financial APP has learned. The bank believes that the post-holiday market is still sustainable, mainly because: 1) the trend and space are deterministic. On the one hand, there is still more room for repair in 23 Spring Festival sales than in 19 years; on the other hand, with reference to overseas experience, the current stage is still in the repair of the consumption scene, and the future economic recovery is expected to promote the improvement of per capita income and the marginal propensity to consume, and further promote the upward repair of demand. 2) taking into account the performance vacuum period from the post-holiday to the first quarterly report, the market's optimistic expectations of consumer recovery are difficult to be falsified, and the overall market is expected to rise further.

The main points of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

Spirit: the Spring Festival mobile sales improvement, gift demand is strong, the market is expected to continue.

In terms of rhythm, the demand recovered slowly from January 1 to 10, and accelerated after the 10th; from the price band, high-end wine benefited from the fact that the gift scene was the first to start the recovery before the Spring Festival; Huizhou wine and Su wine, thanks to the rapid growth of people returning home during the Spring Festival. Looking forward to the post-holiday market, the bank believes that: 1) the plate as a whole is expected to remain persistent in the short term. Historical data show that the liquor index rose from February to March in the upward cycle of consumption (2016, 2017, 2019). And "spring candy" will be an important event observation window. 2) within the plate, before the festival, the consumption scene of gift giving is mainly repaired, but at present, there is still a lot of room for repair of banquets and business banquets. in fact, banquets around the country have been on the rise during the Spring Festival.

Beer: the price of packaged materials continued to decline in December 22, and the mobile sales of the World Cup improved structurally.

On the demand side, beer production in December 22 was + 8.5% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate of-1.7% in November, which is expected to benefit from the improvement in mobile sales driven by the 2022 World Cup. During the World Cup in December, on the one hand, mobile sales improved but the structure was differentiated, online / takeout channels were better, but offline affected by the epidemic, mobile sales were still weak; on the other hand, high-end marketing upgraded to this year's bright spot, such as Yanjing Beer focused on promoting U8. On the cost side, the prices of corrugated paper / LME aluminum / glass in January 23 were-16.2% compared with the same period last year, respectively. The price of barley was + 38.1% in December 22 compared with the same period last year.

Seasoning: the overall improvement of moving sales during the Spring Festival, and the increase of "zero addition" permeability.

Mobile sales: C-end, considering that consumers hoarded goods at home during the epidemic in December 22, so the terminal survey reported that the improvement of mobile sales during the Spring Festival was limited, and the overall age of goods was still on the high side; B-end, the income of key catering enterprises during the Spring Festival was + 25% compared with the same period last year. B-end channel repair is expected to be more flexible; structure: C-end zero-added product penetration increases, shop area increases, but more and more brands can also be observed. The overall channel inventory is still relatively high, the head enterprise business target for the whole year is relatively stable, digesting inventory and stabilizing the channel price system is still the key work of 23Q1.

Dairy products: the demand for gift-giving is repaired quickly, and the performance of white milk is better.

Mobile sales: repair of gift consumption scene, driving room temperature white milk, room temperature yoghurt category dynamic sales significantly improved compared with the same period last year, the age of goods decreased compared with the same period last year. Structure: the shelf life of normal temperature white milk is better than that of normal temperature yogurt, and that of basic white milk is better than that of high-end white milk. Promotion: due to the overstocking of channel inventory caused by the epidemic in December, the overall promotion efforts during the Spring Festival are still on the high side, with some outlets feedback that the price of Jindian Tetra Pak bricks (boxes) is discounted from 65 yuan to 40 yuan.

Investment advice:Throughout the year, there are two dimensions: dimension one, looking for the flexibility of business cycle + post-epidemic recovery resonance; dimension two, paying attention to the long-term logical changes brought about by the epidemic. Three stages: 1) transition period (January-February): focus on high-end liquor and catering supply chain. 2) weak recovery (March-June): focus on high-end liquor, sub-high-end liquor, catering supply chain, dairy products. 3) strong recovery (July-December): focus on high-end spirits, condiments, beer and energy drinks.

In the short term, the pace of recovery may accelerate, focusing on high-end spirits Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Luzhou laojiao (000568.SZ), and pay more attention to sub-high-end Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809.SH); catering supply chain Haitian flavor industry (603288.SH), Richen (603755.SH), dairy Yili (600887.SH).

Risk Tips:Demand recovery is less than expected; cost increases are higher than expected; food safety issues.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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