Core ideas:
Neptune issued a 22-year performance forecast. The company expects to achieve an operating income of 4.1 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 107%, a net profit of RMB 370-396 million, an increase of 239-262%, and a net profit of RMB 2.80-310 million, an increase of 288-330%, exceeding expectations. Among them, Q4 revenue is expected to be 1.735 billion yuan, an increase of 81% over the same period last year; and net profit from home is 1.5-175 million yuan, an increase of 106%-140%.
The company's revenue and orders increased sharply. According to the company's performance forecast, the growth of the company's performance is mainly due to the continuous growth of the company's orders and the increase in the number of acceptance items in the reporting period. As of December 31, 2022, the company signed a new order of about 7.7 billion yuan (including tax), an increase of about 35% over the same period last year; on-hand orders were about 8.1 billion yuan (including tax), an increase of about 59% over the same period last year. According to the company's three-quarter report, by the end of Q3 in 22, the company's inventory balance increased by 74.63% year-on-year, and the contract debt balance increased by 78.05% year-on-year.
The scale effect appears and the profitability increases. According to the company announcement, with the expansion of the company's business scale, the company's scale effect gradually appears, and the profitability is significantly improved. According to the company's performance forecast, we calculate that the 22-year homing net interest rate of the company is about 9.0%, and the 21-year homing net interest rate is 5.5%, an increase of 3.5pct-4.1pct over the same period last year. On the basis of more than doubling the company's operating income, the scale effect gradually appears, and the profit margin has increased significantly.
Profit forecast and investment advice: it is estimated that the company's homing net profit in 22-24 years is 378 / 7160.011 billion yuan respectively. Considering that Haimu Star has product expansion and layout in lithium electricity and photovoltaic equipment industry, its performance has achieved high growth, and there is more room for future growth. With reference to comparable companies, we give the company 23-year homing net profit 25x PE, corresponding to a reasonable value of 88.76 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the industry competition aggravates the risk, the power battery is replaced by other energy sources, and the new technology development risk.