Event: the company issued a 22-year performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.65 billion yuan and 85 million yuan in 22 years, a decrease of 59% to 69% over the same period last year; deducting a net profit of 0.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 65% and 77% over the same period last year: the performance is basically in line with expectations, with high revenue and profits under pressure. We expect company 22 to achieve 4.22 billion yuan in revenue for the whole year, + 26% year-on-year, of which Q4 revenue is 1.432 billion yuan, + 72% year-on-year; annual net profit is 79 million yuan,-62% year-on-year, of which Q4 belongs to its mother-24 million yuan, year-on-year-867% (Q4 centralized deduction).
Photovoltaic glass is full of production and sales, and the expansion of production leads to a high increase in income. We expect the company's photovoltaic glass business to achieve revenue of 2.034 billion yuan in 22 years, + 54% year-on-year, and gross profit margin of about 16%, year-on-year-9pct. We expect 22 years of full production of photovoltaic glass products, with Jiaozuo, Xuchang two major bases put into production in the second half of the year, leading to a high increase in sales, but the price of 22Q1 photovoltaic glass fell sharply, resulting in a low gross profit margin for the whole year. The company has signed large orders with Jing'ao and Tianjin Huanrui, and there is still an increase in effective production capacity in 23-24. Photovoltaic glass production and sales are expected to maintain high growth and drive revenue growth.
The sharp drop in float glass prices in 22 will affect income and gross profit margin. A rebound in prices and an increase in solar and thermal orders may lead to an improvement in float business in the future. We expect the company's float business to achieve revenue of 358 million yuan in 22 years, + 58% year-on-year, and gross profit margin of about 15%, year-on-year-23pct. Affected by the completion of the property and the lower-than-expected demand, the price of float glass fell sharply, thus affecting the company's float business revenue and profits. In terms of photothermal, the company has won 100MW orders for 22 years, but due to its small scale and failure to achieve continuous production, its contribution to performance is not obvious. In 23-24, with the promotion of photothermal projects under construction, the company's photothermal orders have increased, and the gross profit margin of float business will be improved.
In addition, the company calculates the impairment in Q4 concentration to affect profits. The increase of the company's income in the past 22 years led to an increase in the balance of accounts receivable and a large amount of impairment loss; at the same time, the impairment loss of related assets in precious metal cases was about 23 million yuan. We estimate that after excluding the impact of impairment, the return to the mother will be about 138 million yuan in 22 years,-34% compared with the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: the company is an excellent representative of second-tier photovoltaic glass enterprises, while the diversified layout in the field of high-end glass, such as photothermal and pharmaceutical glass, is steadily progressing. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of RMB 0.79max in 22-24, corresponding to RMB 0.53 in EPS 0.07max, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: photovoltaic glass overcapacity, falling product prices, rising prices of raw materials.