Core ideas:
Event: the company issued a performance forecast, with expected revenue of 28-3 billion yuan in 22 years, down 18.8% to 24.2% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 6.8% to 780 million yuan, 14.4% less than the loss in the same period last year. Among them, 22Q4's single-quarter revenue is expected to decline 16.6% compared with the same period last year.
Comments: the reason for the company's huge loss in 22 years is mainly due to: (1) Cosmetics business loss: Northbell is expected to achieve income of 20-2.1 billion yuan in 22 years, down from the same period last year; net profit is expected to lose 2.2-260 million yuan, a sharp decline compared with the same period last year. Among them, 22Q4 is expected to achieve income of 5.5-650 million yuan and net profit loss of 0.9-130 million yuan in a single quarter. There was a temporary recession in ① consumption and cosmetics industry, especially the demand for masks, wipes and other categories was greatly affected. The completion and commissioning of ② 21 production line reconstruction and expansion project led to a further increase in depreciation and amortization in 22 years, but there was no significant increase in capacity utilization, resulting in an increase in unit cost in 22 years. ③ is affected by commodity price fluctuations, upstream supply chain tension and other factors, the prices of major raw materials for cosmetics continue to rise, affecting the gross profit margin.
(2) provision for impairment of goodwill: due to the sharp decline in gross profit margin and operating results in the first three quarters of 22 years, the company set aside 450 million yuan for impairment of goodwill at the end of the third quarter.
(3) the loss of turpentine deep processing business: under the influence of the declining prosperity of the industry and market competition, the sales price of products continued to decline, and the sales volume of synthetic camphor and borneol decreased. On the other hand, the purchasing prices of major raw materials fluctuated and rose, resulting in a continuous decline in operating income and gross profit margin. In addition, due to the backlog of raw materials and products, insufficient market demand and production line failures and other reasons, the company corresponding provision for asset impairment losses. (4) the non-recurrent profit and loss affecting net profit in 22 years is estimated to be about 28 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment advice: as a leading OEM of cosmetics, Northbell has obvious advantages in production capacity and customer cooperation. In the future, with the economic recovery and the optimization of the industrial chain pattern, the performance is expected to improve gradually. It is expected that the company will achieve home net profit of-7.3,1.3 and 230 million yuan in 22-24 years, giving the company 35 times PE in 23 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 8.75 yuan per share, maintaining a "holding" rating.
Risk tips: the fund-raising progress of the fixed increase is not as expected; the prosperity of the cosmetics industry is declining; the expansion of new categories and new customers is not as expected.