Events:
Shu Yu civilian issued a 2022 performance forecast: return to the mother net profit of 2.10-260 million yuan (+ 83%-126%); deducted non-net profit of 2.0-250 million yuan (+ 96%-144%); fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations, single Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.813 billion yuan (+ 1533%). The company issued a 2023 restricted stock incentive plan (draft), which intends to issue A shares of common stock to the incentive target, and the number of restricted shares to be granted is 4.7 million, accounting for 1.16% of the company's share capital at the time of the announcement of the incentive plan, of which 3.765 million shares are granted for the first time, accounting for 0.93%. 935000 shares are reserved, accounting for 0.23%. The restricted stock grant price for the income of the incentive plan is 8.79 yuan per share (51% of the share price at the time of the announcement), and the total number of incentive recipients granted by the scheme for the first time is 119.
Comments:
CAGR is expected to reach 27.5% in the next three years, releasing the company's confidence in long-term performance growth. The performance evaluation target of the incentive plan is based on the net profit value of 2022, the net profit growth rate target value for 2023-2025 is 25%, 70%, 110%, and the trigger value is 20%, 50%, 80%, respectively. According to this performance evaluation target, taking into account share payment fees, the company's actual net profit target value for 2023-2025 is 2.64 million yuan, and the actual trigger value is 253,327,401 yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of the actual target value is 17%, 41%, 26% and 21.5%, respectively. The actual trigger value is 12%, 29%, 23% and 21.1%. From the perspective of overall equity incentive, 2024 is the year with the fastest growth. From the long-term trend, the deduction of non-return net profit in 2023-24 increased year by year, 24 years entered the performance cash period, the long-term trend is better. The core reason is the accelerated expansion of stores in 2022-23 (the expansion of "self-construction + M & A + joining" accelerated significantly), and entered the performance cash period in 2024. Considering the expansion trend of the pharmacy as a whole from 2021, the company is expected to achieve steady growth in performance in 23-24.
Cover a wide range of objects, long-term stimulate the enthusiasm of core business personnel. The income object of the company's equity incentive plan includes 5 middle and senior managers of the company, with restricted stock accounting for 7.35% of the total, and 114 core managers and core business (technical) personnel, accounting for 72.77% of the total. The equity incentive plan widely covers the core management team and the core business (technical) backbone, which will fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the backbone staff, continuously strengthen the company's management and implementation capabilities, and promote the company's core competitiveness.
Profit forecast: the company is the regional leader of the chain pharmacy, issuing equity incentives to promote the sustained and healthy development of the company.
We basically maintain the previous income and profit forecast, and expect the company to achieve an income of 7.8179pm 12.660 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and a net profit of 2.26pm 269pm 374 million, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.56pm 0.66pm 0.92 yuan per share. Comprehensive industry average valuation level, maintain the company's "overweight" investment rating.
Risk tips: economic downside risks, performance forecasts and valuations that are not up to expectations, recurrent epidemic risks, etc.