Event: on January 30, 2023, the company issued the "2022 performance Forecast". The company expects to achieve a net profit of 40 million-60 million yuan in 2022, down 82.83% to 88.55% over the same period last year. It is expected to deduct 160 million-220 million yuan in net profit, a decrease of 156.10% to 177.14% over the same period last year.
The impairment of the goodwill of the environmental protection business affects the company's performance, and the revenue of the high-end equipment business keeps growing: the company is expected to lose 109 million yuan ~ 129 million yuan in the fourth quarter, resulting in a significant decline in the company's annual performance. From a business point of view, the company's high-end equipment business revenue has maintained steady growth, and the level of gross profit margin has declined slightly. The company's environmental protection business was seriously affected by the epidemic, and the sharp decline in the profitability of the environmental protection business led to the lower-than-expected performance of the environmental protection business, and at the same time, it was also lower than the performance commitment of the environmental protection subsidiary. Therefore, the company's goodwill impairment to PetroChina Environmental Protection is about 400 million to 450 million yuan. Although PetroChina Environmental Protection compensates about 300 million yuan of income to the parent company according to the performance compensation clause, it still has a great impact on the performance of the parent company after deducting taxes and fees.
The certainty of offshore wind power growth is high, and the company's offshore business is expected to grow rapidly: due to the impact of the epidemic and typhoons, offshore wind power installation in 2022 is lower than expected, but the domestic offshore wind power bidding volume exceeds 20GW in 2022, and the winning bid volume also increases significantly, and the domestic installed capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2023. As the core manufacturer of wind power foundation piles in China, the company will benefit from the recovery of the industry.
The steady growth of material handling business has laid the foundation for the company's growth: material handling business is one of the company's core businesses, accounting for a large contribution to revenue and profits. With the expansion of the influence of the company's material handling business at home and abroad, the company began to obtain large orders in the industry. Although affected by rising costs, the overall performance continued to grow, which has become one of the keys to the company's sustained growth in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company is the leading foundation pile manufacturer in China. at the same time, the demand for ship supporting business is high, and the order for material handling business is full. at the same time, the rapid development of offshore wind power is expected to promote the rapid development of foundation pile business. From 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 0.5 billion yuan. The corresponding PE is 112-13-12 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: wind power installation is lower than expected; delivery of material handling business is lower than expected; prosperity of shipbuilding industry is declining