Main points of investment:
Event: recently, Zhonglai Co., Ltd. announced its 22-year performance forecast, and the company expects to achieve a 22-year net profit of 3.46-410 million yuan, an increase of 210.42% and 230.84% over the same period last year. There has been a substantial increase in global photovoltaic installation in the past 22 years, and the company's business shipments and sales revenue have increased significantly.
The backplane capacity expansion effect is obvious, the shipment volume increases substantially. In 22 years, the company expanded the production capacity of the backplane, and continuously upgraded the original production line. at the end of 22, the nominal production capacity of the backplane was 220 million square meters, and the actual shipment in 22 years was about 250 million square meters. In 23 years, the company will continue to expand its production capacity. The company's backplane gross profit margin level is the industry leader, transparent backplane shipments continue to grow, and the gross margin is expected to be higher, 23 years backplane business profitability is expected to continue to rise.
The high growth of global installation has brought about an increase in efficient component shipments and household distributed installation. With the rapid growth of global photovoltaic installation in the past 22 years, the shipments of components in the industry have also increased significantly. With the full production of Taizhou 1.5GW N single crystal double-sided TOPCon solar cell project in 22 years, the company's battery production capacity has increased significantly compared with 21 years. The demand for components is good in 22 years, and the utilization rate of component capacity of the company is high. It is estimated that the output of high-efficiency components 2~3GW, which is a substantial increase compared with 21 years. 22 years upstream raw material price is high, has the certain influence to the component profitability, 23 years along with the upstream raw material price drop, the company component profitability is expected to usher in the repair. The company's household distributed business has developed steadily in the past 22 years, and the installed capacity has been further improved. It is expected that 1.5~2GW will be installed in 22 years.
The change of control is progressing steadily, and the ownership of state-owned assets empowers the company. At present, the change of control of the company is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed in the first half of 23. After Zhejiang Neng Electric Power takes ownership, it is expected to give the company greater support in terms of capital and industry, and the company is expected to speed up production expansion in the future. We expect that the first phase of Shanxi 8GW high efficiency battery will be put into production in the first half of 23 years, and the second phase of 8GW will adopt TOPCON3.0 technology, which is expected to be put into production within 23 years.
Maintain a "buy" rating. The company is a photovoltaic backplane leader, TOPCon leader, distributed head enterprise. Due to the high raw material prices in 22 years, and the photovoltaic rush to install less than expected in December, the price of raw materials fluctuated greatly, so we adjusted the company's profit forecast. Compared with the previous profit forecast, we reduced the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic for 22 years and increased the inventory impairment loss for 22 years. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 22-24 years is 3.89,9.42 and 1.29 billion yuan (the previous forecast is 6.86,10.35 and 1.364 billion yuan), and the current stock price is 48 times, 20 times and 15 times respectively corresponding to PE.
Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the global installed capacity is not as expected, the release of new capacity is not as expected, and the profitability is not as expected.