国联水产(300094)公司事件点评报告:业绩扭亏为盈 关注预制菜进展

Guolian Fisheries (300094) Company Incident Review Report: Performance Turns Loss into Profit, Focus on the Progress of Prepared Meals

華鑫證券 ·  01/31  · Researches

On January 30, League of Nations Fisheries released its 2022 performance forecast.

Key points of investment

Performance was in line with expectations, turning losses into profits throughout the year

According to the performance forecast, the company's net profit for 2022 was 0.27-40 million yuan (same increase of 295%-389%), net profit of 0.12-025 million yuan after deducting non-net profit of 0.12-025 million yuan (same increase of 137%-178%). We expect net profit loss of 0.12-025 million yuan (same increase of 0.3%-52%) in 2022Q4, minus non-loss of 0.15-028 million yuan (-29% to 31% year on year). The company's annual performance turned a loss into a profit, driven by strong growth in domestic business, rapid release of new prepared dishes, and divestment of the upstream farming business.

Follow the progress of prepared dishes, and a fixed increase is expected to gain strength

The company is the first domestic prawn and tilapia double BAP four-star certified enterprise. It is also the largest listed fishery products enterprise and the largest prawn processing and sales enterprise in China. It leads the industry in product development, raw material procurement, and channel development. Currently, the company insists on focusing on prepared dishes to upgrade its business model. The product side is gradually shifting to food ingredients and marine food, which mainly focus on prepared dishes. The products are mainly crayfish, fish, and prawns. Among them, crayfish and breaded shrimp have all exceeded 100 million. Furthermore, the company has completed the divestment of the upstream aquaculture sector, and the business will further focus on aquatic food processing. Channel-side companies continue to deepen the domestic market, forming a dual cycle of domestic and foreign business, with domestic revenue targets accounting for over 70% in 2025. After the fund-raising project is put into operation, the production capacity of prepared vegetables will increase dramatically. Among them, the production capacity of prepared products for crayfish, prawns and fish will increase by 15,300 tons and 5,37,000 tons respectively. It is estimated that the product production capacity of the fund-raising project will reach 80,000 tons/year in 2025.

Profit prediction

We are optimistic about the company's layout in the prepared food sector; according to the performance forecast, the company's EPS for 2022-2024 was slightly adjusted to 0.04/0.17/0.29 yuan (previous value was 0.10/0.17/0.25 yuan), and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 156/33/19 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment rating.

Risk Reminder

Macroeconomic downside risks, prepared dishes falling short of expectations, rising raw materials, etc.

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