Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics
According to the analysis of many organizations, there are two main reasons:
One is the profit-taking of some funds during the Spring Festival boom.
The second is the important observation window period of post-epidemic era and performance expectation. In addition, there are also reasons such as the recent strong willingness to return southward funds to A-shares and overseas worries about the risk of recession in US stocks.
After the "good start" of the year of the Rabbit, Hong Kong stocks suddenly suffered a "late spring cold" recently, with three major indexes wantonly making a correction, with the Hang Seng Technology Index performing the worst, falling nearly 5% on January 30, with heavy technology stocks.$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$Drop by more than 7%$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Plummeted 6.7% and lost HK $400$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$、$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$、$JD.com, Inc.-SW (09618.HK)$All fell by more than 5%. According to the analysis of many institutions, there are two main reasons, one is the profit-taking of some funds during the Spring Festival surge, and the other is the post-epidemic era and an important observation window for performance expectations. In addition, there are also reasons such as the recent strong willingness to return southward funds to A-shares and overseas worries about the risk of recession in US stocks.
Adjust part of the funds for profit-taking after a big rise
In fact, in the nearly 60 trading days since early November 2022, Hong Kong stocks have experienced a golden period of rise, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 59%. In the first trading day of the year of the Rabbit, Hong Kong stocks suddenly had a "squat". In response, a number of institutions have said that the decline in the Hong Kong stock market is a normal adjustment after a sharp rise, and that Hong Kong stocks may be repeated in a short period of time after a big rise.
Dang Chongyu, an analyst at Guohai Securities, said he was worried that Hong Kong stocks would continue to rise, rising too fast and not bad. In particular, Hong Kong stocks reached the high resistance level of the second quarter of 2022, but the bank believes thatIt is estimated that there is still room for Hong Kong stocks to rise from the target point, and Hong Kong stocks are likely to return to their pre-Russian-Ukrainian point in 2023.. What needs to be emphasized in particular is that the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is weaker than that of A shares, and both rise and fall may be relatively volatile, so it is not advisable to be blindly bearish before the logic of the rise is destroyed.
Xing Cheng, a former Hang Seng Harbour Stock Select mixed fund manager, also said that the Hong Kong stock market has rebounded from the low point to the present has accumulated a large increase, the previous market rebound is larger and faster, the trading structure of the Internet, consumption, new energy, cars and other growth sectors are more crowded in the short term, accounting for a relatively high share of trading, so there is pressure for some funds to take profits. It also further aggravates the overall volatility of the market today.
Post-epidemic era and performance expectation important observation window period
First of all, with the exuberant travel and consumption picking up after the peak of the epidemic in many places, especially during the Spring Festival, the recovery trend of consumer stocks is obvious, with the subsequent expectations realized.Recently, there has been profit-cashing pressure in the big consumer industry.. Coupled with the pre-festival to speculate recovery expectations, the need to verify the performance after the festival, investors will inevitably have concerns about the economic expectations can not be verified during this period.
As far as consumption is concerned, Huatai pointed out that from the high-frequency economic indicators of the Spring Festival, the recovery of service-oriented consumption and travel chain is expected to be fulfilled, but the recovery of consumption is not over. The recovery of commodity consumption and real estate chain is expected to become the main line of the next stage of consumption recovery. Dang Chongyu also believes that the short-term economic operation during the Spring Festival in 2023 cannot change the general trend of gradual economic repair throughout the year, and there will be May Day holidays and summer travel peak after the Spring Festival in 2023.Travel chain and offline consumption will also have continuous logic throughout the year.。
In addition, whether it is the spring market based on the reversal of economic expectations caused by the change in epidemic prevention policy, or the spring market considering the calendar effect, February 2023 is still a performance vacuum, and many expectations cannot be falsified. Investor sentiment and economic expectations can still have a positive effect on the stock market. What is more important to the market in the first quarter is economic expectations, which are often accompanied by investor sentiment, and even if the results cannot be verified, they are not yet close to light.
The return of southward funds and the emergence of recession risks in US stocks
In addition to the above point of view, Huatai pointed out from the perspective of AH premium that the AH premium naturally healed after the festival. As of January 27, the AH premium was 129, falling below the median since 2015. The performance-to-price ratio of Hong Kong stocks relative to A-shares has decreased, and the willingness of southward funds to return A-shares is relatively strong in the near future. According to the model instructions of the rowThe AH premium is still near the reasonable point.The residual error has not yet triggered the instructions of Hong Kong stocks to allocate A shares, southward capital 2022Q4 positions and active foreign capital inflows still have a large space from the peak of the Q1 bull market in 2021, which is expected to support the follow-up market of Hong Kong stocks.
In addition, overseas worries about the risk of recession in US stocks may also be the reason for the sharp fall in Hong Kong stocks. Xiaomo said that the big rally in US stocks at the beginning of the year will fade, and the recession risk has only been postponed. HSBC Investment Management expects the US economy to turn bad will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier, possibly by 100 basis points this year.
The rise of Hong Kong stocks tends to be rational. We can expect to embrace the "Davis double click" market in 2023.
For the future, Huatai believes that the sharp fall in Hong Kong stocks is not caused by the long-term expected changes in Hong Kong stocks, and the short-term pullback opens the allocation space. In the medium to long term, the logical turn of the three factors of Hong Kong stocks DDM remains unchanged, and they are still optimistic that Hong Kong stocks will repair to the position of mid-February 2022. Follow-up attention to the actual economic momentum, especially the repair of real estate chain, commodity consumption-related scenes.
Ran Linghao, manager of Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF Fund, pointed out that if the previous rise was "rising expectations", then this stage will slowly transition to the verification of performance and real data. As a result, the next increase will be more rational. As a wholeHong Kong stocks are already in a region with greater investment value, and there will be room for rise. From the perspective of the plate, the advantages of growth and technology stocks will continue.。
Cheng Jie, director of overseas investment of HSBC Jinxin Fund and fund manager, believes that looking forward to 2023, the Hong Kong stock market may usher in a double repair of earnings and valuation, so we can look forward to embracing the "Davis double-click" market in 2023.
Edit / roy