Source: Caihua Society

Author: Hui Ze Li

Recently, Tesla, Inc. plans to invest an additional US $3.6 billion to expand the facility in Nevada, part of which will be used to make Semi semi-trailer electric trucks and the other part will be used to produce 4680 large cylindrical lithium batteries. The planned annual production capacity is 100GWh.

Since 2014, Tesla, Inc. has invested a total of $6.2 billion in Nevada to build a super factory for the production of car motors and electric car batteries. This additional investment is a further expansion of production capacity, and it also shows that Tesla, Inc. 's "scale effect" is running healthily.

As early as Tesla, Inc. Battery Day in September 2020, Musk announced that he would build a large cylindrical 4680 battery, which officially opened the curtain of his battery dream.

Later, with the landing of the Texas Super Factory, the pilot plant in Tremont, California, and the plant in Nevada, Musk's battery dream moved forward.

Of course, their own batteries are first used in their own models, according to the plan, Tesla, Inc. 's Model series, Semi semi-trailer trucks, Cyber electric trucks, Roadster electric sports cars and other electric cars, will use 4680 large cylindrical batteries.

On short-term goals, Musk said, "for the 4680 battery team, the goal in 2023 may be to introduce a cost-effective battery for cyber electric trucks. "

The long-term goal is to produce batteries that surpass the 1000GWh in Tesla, Inc..

At present, new energy car companies have achieved self-development of batteries are BYD, Great Wall Motor, Tesla, Inc., have been in the state of self-research are Guangzhou Automobile, NIO Inc. Automobile and so on.

However, Tesla, Inc. can be called a model student of the battery self-research school.

01 guide of cylindrical battery

The reason why we say model students, first of all, because the battery technology route is more cutting-edge, step on the right or even lead the tuyere.

The so-called 4680 cylindrical battery, as its name implies, has a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm. According to data released by Tesla, Inc., compared with Tesla, Inc. 21700 battery (diameter 21mm, height 70mm) small cylindrical battery, the 4680 battery has five times its energy capacity and increases its mileage by about 16%.

At present, there are three major types of power battery packaging, namely, square, cylindrical, soft package, among which square battery is the mainstream. Cylindrical battery is the earliest shape of lithium battery. Whether square or round, the overlap of the mainstream path of technology is essentially the result of the continuous game between cost and performance.

The advantages of the 4680 cylindrical battery are as follows:

First, the 4680 battery electrodeless ear (all-polar ear) design greatly shortens the electronic movement distance, which can reduce the battery ohmic internal resistance and improve the battery rate performance.

Second, cylindrical batteries are more tolerant to battery gas production and can be compatible with higher capacity, higher voltage positive electrodes and higher capacity negative electrodes.

Third, the unit of the cylindrical battery is larger, which is beneficial to the integrated design of the battery package without module and the battery chassis.

The point is that large cylindrical batteries cater to the "appetite" of downstream car companies.

In addition to Tesla, Inc., BMW also has a clear research and development plan for 4695 cylindrical cells, which is expected to achieve mass production in 2024 and mass production of 4695-120GWh 4695 cylindrical batteries within seven years.

General Motors Co is also rumored to be considering using cylindrical batteries instead of soft-pack batteries.

In addition to BMW and General Motors Co, Strandis and Volvo are also preparing to switch to large cylindrical batteries.

Domestically, NIO Inc. Automobile, Porsche, Jianghuai Automobile, Dongfeng Lantu and other car companies also said that they will carry 4680 large cylindrical batteries in their mid-and high-end models.

With the standing in line of car companies at home and abroad, it shows that the tuyere of cylindrical batteries is still relatively clear.

In terms of industry prospects, China International Capital Corporation expects that the total installation of large cylindrical batteries is expected to exceed 200GWh by 2025, accounting for about 16% of the total installed capacity of power batteries.

For Tesla, Inc., the main way to embark on self-research battery is to control costs in the future, ensure the stability of the supply chain and maximize profits.

The reason why Tesla, Inc. self-developed battery chooses cylindrical battery: the lowest cost and the longest life.

But Tesla, Inc. 's large cylindrical batteries are still far from being used on a large scale, and the batteries for his electric cars are still square batteries from the Ningde era and 21700 batteries from Panasonic.

Tesla, Inc. Dezhou Super Factory has four 4680 battery production lines, one has been put into production, and the other three are in the stage of commissioning and installation.

In April 2022, some of the Model Y models produced by the Texas Super Factory had 4680 batteries loaded and delivered, while the other Model Y models at the factory continued to carry 2170 cylindrical batteries from Panasonic.

At the end of 2022, the pilot plant in Tremont, California, achieved a major breakthrough in the production of 868000 4680 battery cells a week, capable of supplying about 1000 Tesla, Inc. Model Y electric vehicles this week.

Phased results have been revealed. Judging from the successive price cuts of Tesla, Inc. 's cars a year ago, the cost control of self-developed batteries may have had a certain effect.

However, it is still a long way from fully meeting the target of domestic supply, with Tesla, Inc. 's total delivery volume of 1.31 million vehicles in 2022. For some time in the future, "self-research + procurement" will be Tesla, Inc. 's battery supply strategy.

More importantly, Musk's battery dream is not to play a supporting role for cars, but to create new business segments.

02 have the ambition of giving out

Like BYD's path, although Tesla, Inc. developed the battery first for domestic supply, but the extra will consider export, and also stare at the energy storage cake.

This can be confirmed by the change of cathode material of cylindrical battery.

At first, the cathode material of Tesla, Inc. 's cylindrical battery was high nickel ternary material, but then lithium iron phosphate material was added. From 2021, the battery used in Tesla, Inc. 's energy storage product Megapacks has been converted to lithium iron phosphate material, on the grounds that lithium iron phosphate battery has higher safety, low energy density, low cost and is the most suitable for energy storage.

According to the different positive chemical materials, the current lithium-ion battery has two paths: lithium iron phosphate and nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary lithium, but the ternary battery has a higher energy density and is usually used to meet the long life requirements of electric vehicles, but its stability and durability are also poor (not suitable for energy storage). In addition, the "unfriendly" upstream price of ternary batteries makes lithium iron phosphate more popular and becomes the main material for power batteries.

The 4680 power battery produced by Tesla, Inc. uses high nickel ternary cathode material, while its energy storage battery is mainly made of lithium iron phosphate.

Musk said the self-developed batteries could be used in both electric vehicles and energy storage products, including Megapack, a large energy storage battery designed for public and commercial projects, and Powerwall, a household energy storage battery.

Musk had expected Tesla, Inc. 's Megapack energy storage business to outgrow its car production business in the future. This view is similar to the view that Zeng Yuqun of Ningde Times expects the company's energy storage battery business to be comparable to the power battery business in the future.

Combined with Musk's expectations for the energy storage business, it can be found that Tesla, Inc. is not a simple automobile company, but more like a new energy integrated enterprise, similar to BYD, except that it is defined as an automobile company by professionals such as brokerages, which does not reflect the whole picture of the company.

Although the vision is beautiful, 2023 will not be the highlight year of 4680 batteries, and there are many challenges waiting to be solved.

03 challenges ahead

In terms of technical problems, countless details need to be overcome. Taking the electrodeless ear technology of 4680 battery as an example, the advantage of electrodeless ear is that through the direct connection of positive and negative current collector to cover plate and shell, the area of current conduction is doubled and the distance of current conduction is shortened; the disadvantage is that there is more current collector adhesion technology, which is a brand-new challenge.

The mass production of the 4680 battery is very difficult, mainly due to the integration of a number of innovative technologies, such as the high precision of the battery winding machine and the difficulty of alignment because of the larger size of the battery.

In addition, the battery electrode dry coating technology originally said to be used in the 4680 battery has not landed so far.

4680 the negative electrode of the battery is planned to use silicon carbide to increase energy density at the cost of high cost and insufficient supply.

Interestingly, in August 2022, the US The Limiting Factor Technology Agency disassembled the 4680 battery and found that its negative electrode was only made of graphite and did not contain silicon.

Competitors, in the large cylindrical battery this "Colosseum", including Ningde era, Yiwei LiNeng, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other giants are making efforts.

Ningde Times announced in September 2022 that cylindrical batteries would be supplied to BMW Group's "new generation" model architecture of all-electric models from 2025.

Yiwei LiNeng's first large cylindrical 20GWh factory will soon be completed in Jingmen, Hubei Province, realizing the mass production of the first generation of 280Wh/kg 's large cylindrical lithium battery products. In addition, a new generation of 4695 cylindrical batteries with an energy density of 350Wh/kg will be released in December 2022.

The Changzhou production base with a total investment of 13 billion yuan has been officially signed, covering a total area of 450mu. Three large cylindrical battery production lines and an international R & D center are planned and built in the first phase. After the completion of the base, the production capacity will reach 30GWh, which is about to enter the large-scale stage.

The major battery manufacturers have entered the bureau of large cylindrical batteries, which will naturally stimulate the demand for relevant raw materials, which will lead to a rise in upstream prices, which will bring trouble to Tesla, Inc. about how to deal with upstream prices.

All in all, compared with new energy vehicles, from self-developed batteries to fully self-supply, and then to the rise of energy storage plate, for Tesla, Inc., the future is still far away, and dream.

Edit / Viola