Event
The company issued a pre-reduction announcement, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 150 million yuan to 210 million yuan in 2022, a decrease of 67.22% to 76.58% compared with the same period last year.
The impact of the automobile business is still going on, and the company whose main business is affected by the epidemic has completed a major asset restructuring in September 2021, including the consolidated operation data of the automobile business from January to August in 2021, and the automobile business will no longer be included in the scope of the merger in 2022. The new medical service business is still in the development stage and has not been able to make up for the impact caused by the divestiture of the automobile business. At the same time, the major business sectors of the company are repeatedly affected by the epidemic, the supply chain is intermittently unstable, and the business flow and people flow are greatly fluctuated, resulting in greater passenger flow and revenue pressure on the main business.
Improve the strategic layout of pediatrics direction and play a synergistic role
The company's medical business grew steadily, and in 2022.9 Yahn Health cooperated with Jinhua Lianji Hospital to establish a "Child Development behavior intervention Center" to continuously improve the paediatrics development strategy of "healthy companionship of children in the whole growth cycle". As of 2022Q3, the company has built sub-specialties in pediatrics, such as children's endocrinology, children's mental health, children's health care and rehabilitation, and has more than 50 children's chain institutions, covering 22 large and medium-sized cities across the country, including Beijing, Shanghai, East China, South China, Southwest and other regions. In the future, it is expected to continue to introduce children's oral cavity, children's eyesight, children's allergy and other related business, play a synergistic role, empower the development of the company.
Performance is affected by non-recurring gains and losses such as equity transfer
The company's investment income declined: (1) in 2022, in order to deal with the uncertainty of the real estate market, avoid risk factors such as industry policies and market fluctuations, and optimize the company's financial structure and debt structure, the company transferred its 21% equity stake in Zhejiang Junxu Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. (2) and the company transfers to Jiangsu Wuxi Commercial Building Group Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder of the company, 51% equity held by Wuxi Commercial Building Group Oriental Automobile Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and 51% equity held by Wuxi New era Automobile Trading Group Co., Ltd.
Investment suggestion
In the short term, with the improvement of the epidemic, the consumer sector is expected to release performance flexibility; in the long run, the light luxury industry has a broad market space, the company continues to adjust and upgrade to improve the flat efficiency, and the retail department store business is expected to achieve steady growth. The fresh distribution and convenience store industry ushered in new development opportunities under the catalysis of the epidemic. The company opened fresh and enhanced stores and won 7-Eleven Hubei management right to explore and join the chain expansion model, which is expected to further strengthen the main retail business; the company acquired Jiangao Medical, Shuyang Central Hospital, Ya en Health, Zhibei Medical, Jinhua Lianji, cut into the field of health care, pediatrics and orthopaedics linkage empowerment, is expected to become a new performance growth point. We estimate that the company's EPS in 2022-2024 will be 0.21,0.24,0.26 yuan per share respectively, and the corresponding share price PE will be 23,21,19 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The epidemic situation in some areas is repeated; the expansion of 7-Eleven stores is not as expected; and the cultivation of the medical sector is not as expected.
