智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，市场预期特斯拉(TSLA.US)此次降价将带动销量大幅抬升，但以价换量策略存在边际减弱风险，Tesla加码4680，成为创新降本周期抓手。22年底特斯拉4680电池周产能超1000辆/周(约5万辆/年)，将再扩产100GWh(约150万辆/年)。贯穿2023年的核心是以价换量，关注46系大圆柱电池量产及良率爬坡、特斯拉储能订单，形成鲶鱼效应，推动电池降本增效。2024年看点是特斯拉车型上行周期，Cybertruck推动46系大圆柱电池放量。
光大证券主要观点如下：
特斯拉降价订单超预期，直接催化剂
特斯拉22年四季报营收利润均创新高，23年毛利率目标20%+，优于市场预期。特斯拉全球降价驱动订单增加，23年销量目标180万辆+，同增37%以上。特斯拉1月全球降价后订单迅速增长，中国地区订单增长显著，美国地区库存迅速降低，1月订单是产能的两倍。
车型周期向下，4680开启创新降本周期
市场预期特斯拉此次降价将带动销量大幅抬升，但以价换量策略存在边际减弱风险，Tesla加码4680，成为创新降本周期抓手。22年底特斯拉4680电池周产能超1000辆/周(约5万辆/年)，将再扩产100GWh(约150万辆/年)。
4680电池推动材料体系向高镍三元9系+硅基负极+油性涂覆隔膜+LiFSI进阶，设备工艺方面加速预镀镍+46结构件+激光焊。由于标准化程度高，4680电池可作为“结构电池”通过一体化压铸降本。
压制因素、首要矛盾及节奏
市场前期担心车企降价对于供应链的利润挤压、中游竞争格局恶化带来的加工费下杀，前期过低的估值已经体现了市场的悲观预期，本轮涨幅主要是确定性高的估值修复。而特斯拉产业链受益于估值修复与订单量提升双击，是23年具备alpha的主线，因此涨幅领先。且由于IRA法案补贴、创新降本腾出特斯拉降本空间，特斯拉以价换量的空间较大。
贯穿2023年的核心是以价换量，关注46系大圆柱电池量产及良率爬坡、特斯拉储能订单，形成鲶鱼效应，推动电池降本增效。2024年看点是特斯拉车型上行周期，Cybertruck推动46系大圆柱电池放量。
投资建议：
特斯拉4680产业链该行看好电池>中游：
(1)电池LGES财报指引对于电池盈利乐观，材料降本幅度大于降价，看好储能占比高的电池厂，关注宁德时代(300750.SZ)(特斯拉磷酸铁锂及megapack)，亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)(46系+储能)。
(2)中游材料：估值修复确定性高，修复程度看接下来政策、利好的落地程度，2月加工费落地仍有压制，需观测3,4月后续订单带来基本面的改善程度。综合考虑弹性及格局，关注泰和新材(002254.SZ)、科达利(002850.SZ)、东方电热(300217.SZ)、天赐材料(002709.SZ)、德方纳米(300769.SZ)、芳源股份(688148.SH)、当升科技(300073.SZ)。
风险分析：新能源车销量不及预期，4680量产进度及良率不及预期，中游竞争格局恶化，盈利能力下滑。
智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，市场预期特斯拉(TSLA.US)此次降价将带动销量大幅抬升，但以价换量策略存在边际减弱风险，Tesla加码4680，成为创新降本周期抓手。22年底特斯拉4680电池周产能超1000辆/周(约5万辆/年)，将再扩产100GWh(约150万辆/年)。贯穿2023年的核心是以价换量，关注46系大圆柱电池量产及良率爬坡、特斯拉储能订单，形成鲶鱼效应，推动电池降本增效。2024年看点是特斯拉车型上行周期，Cybertruck推动46系大圆柱电池放量。
Zhitong Financial APP learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that the market expected Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) this price reduction will lead to a substantial increase in sales, but the price-for-volume strategy has a marginal risk of weakening, and Tesla increases by 4680, becoming the starting point of the innovation cost reduction cycle. At the end of 22 years, the weekly production capacity of Tesla, Inc. 4680 battery exceeded 1000 / week (about 50, 000 / year), and the production of 100GWh (about 1.5 million / year) will be expanded again. The core throughout 2023 is price for quantity, focusing on mass production and yield climbing of 46 series large cylindrical batteries, Tesla, Inc. energy storage orders, forming catfish effect and promoting battery cost reduction and efficiency. In 2024, the focus will be the uplink cycle of the Tesla, Inc. model, and the Cybertruck will promote the discharge of 46 series large cylindrical batteries.
The main points of Everbright Securities are as follows:
Tesla, Inc. 's price reduction order exceeded expectations, direct catalyst.
特斯拉22年四季报营收利润均创新高，23年毛利率目标20%+，优于市场预期。特斯拉全球降价驱动订单增加，23年销量目标180万辆+，同增37%以上。特斯拉1月全球降价后订单迅速增长，中国地区订单增长显著，美国地区库存迅速降低，1月订单是产能的两倍。
Tesla, Inc. reported revenue and profit in the four seasons in 22 years, with a gross profit margin target of 20% in 23 years, which was better than market expectations. Tesla, Inc. 's global price reduction drove an increase in orders, with a 23-year sales target of 1.8 million vehicles +, an increase of more than 37%. After Tesla, Inc. cut prices around the world in January, orders increased rapidly, orders in China increased significantly, inventories in the United States decreased rapidly, and orders in January were twice as large as capacity.
The model cycle is downward, and 4680 starts the innovation cost reduction cycle.
市场预期特斯拉此次降价将带动销量大幅抬升，但以价换量策略存在边际减弱风险，Tesla加码4680，成为创新降本周期抓手。22年底特斯拉4680电池周产能超1000辆/周(约5万辆/年)，将再扩产100GWh(约150万辆/年)。
The market expects that Tesla, Inc. 's price reduction will lead to a sharp rise in sales, but there is a marginal risk of weakening in the price-for-volume strategy. Tesla increases by 4680, becoming the focus of the current cycle of innovation. At the end of 22 years, the weekly production capacity of Tesla, Inc. 4680 battery exceeded 1000 / week (about 50, 000 / year), and the production of 100GWh (about 1.5 million / year) will be expanded again.
4680电池推动材料体系向高镍三元9系+硅基负极+油性涂覆隔膜+LiFSI进阶，设备工艺方面加速预镀镍+46结构件+激光焊。由于标准化程度高，4680电池可作为“结构电池”通过一体化压铸降本。
4680 the battery promotes the material system to be advanced to high nickel ternary 9 system + silicon-based negative electrode + oily coated diaphragm + LiFSI, and accelerates pre-plating nickel + 46 structural components + laser welding in terms of equipment technology. Due to the high degree of standardization, the 4680 battery can be used as a "structural battery" through integrated die casting.
Repressive factors, primary contradiction and rhythm
市场前期担心车企降价对于供应链的利润挤压、中游竞争格局恶化带来的加工费下杀，前期过低的估值已经体现了市场的悲观预期，本轮涨幅主要是确定性高的估值修复。而特斯拉产业链受益于估值修复与订单量提升双击，是23年具备alpha的主线，因此涨幅领先。且由于IRA法案补贴、创新降本腾出特斯拉降本空间，特斯拉以价换量的空间较大。
In the early stage, the market is worried that the price cuts of car companies will squeeze the profits of the supply chain and the processing fees brought about by the deterioration of the mid-stream competition pattern. The low valuation in the early stage has reflected the pessimistic expectations of the market, and this round of increase is mainly due to the repair of valuation with high certainty. And Tesla, Inc. industrial chain benefits from valuation repair and order volume promotion double-click, is 23 years with the main line of alpha, so leading the increase. And because of the subsidy of the IRA Act and the cost reduction of innovation, Tesla, Inc. has more room to trade the price for the quantity.
贯穿2023年的核心是以价换量，关注46系大圆柱电池量产及良率爬坡、特斯拉储能订单，形成鲶鱼效应，推动电池降本增效。2024年看点是特斯拉车型上行周期，Cybertruck推动46系大圆柱电池放量。
The core throughout 2023 is price for quantity, focusing on mass production and yield climbing of 46 series large cylindrical batteries, Tesla, Inc. energy storage orders, forming catfish effect and promoting battery cost reduction and efficiency. In 2024, the focus will be the uplink cycle of the Tesla, Inc. model, and the Cybertruck will promote the discharge of 46 series large cylindrical batteries.
Tesla, Inc. 4680 industrial chain the bank is optimistic about the battery > the middle reaches:
(1)电池LGES财报指引对于电池盈利乐观，材料降本幅度大于降价，看好储能占比高的电池厂，关注宁德时代(300750.SZ)(特斯拉磷酸铁锂及megapack)，亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)(46系+储能)。
(1) Battery LGES earnings guidelines are optimistic about battery profits, material cost reduction is greater than price reduction, optimistic about battery factories with a high proportion of energy storage, pay attention to Ningde era (300750.SZ) (Tesla, Inc. Lithium Phosphate and megapack), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) (46 series + energy storage).
(2)中游材料：估值修复确定性高，修复程度看接下来政策、利好的落地程度，2月加工费落地仍有压制，需观测3,4月后续订单带来基本面的改善程度。综合考虑弹性及格局，关注泰和新材(002254.SZ)、科达利(002850.SZ)、东方电热(300217.SZ)、天赐材料(002709.SZ)、德方纳米(300769.SZ)、芳源股份(688148.SH)、当升科技(300073.SZ)。
(2) Mid-stream materials: the certainty of valuation repair is high, and the degree of repair depends on the next policy and favorable landing degree. The landing of processing fees is still suppressed in February, and it is necessary to observe the improvement of fundamentals brought about by follow-up orders in March and April. Considering the flexibility and pattern, we should pay attention to 002254.SZ, 002850.SZ, 300217.SZ, 002709.SZ, 300769.SZ, 688148.SH and 300073.SZ.
风险分析：新能源车销量不及预期，4680量产进度及良率不及预期，中游竞争格局恶化，盈利能力下滑。
Risk analysis:Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, 4680 production progress and yield were lower than expected, the mid-stream competition pattern deteriorated, and profitability declined.
