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光大证券:特斯拉(TSLA.US)降价订单超预期 4680电池开启创新降本周期

Everbright Securities: Tesla's (TSLA.US) price reduction order exceeded expectations, 4680 batteries began an innovative cost reduction cycle

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 31, 2023 11:42

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that the market expected Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) this price reduction will lead to a substantial increase in sales, but the price-for-volume strategy has a marginal risk of weakening, and Tesla increases by 4680, becoming the starting point of the innovation cost reduction cycle. At the end of 22 years, the weekly production capacity of Tesla, Inc. 4680 battery exceeded 1000 / week (about 50, 000 / year), and the production of 100GWh (about 1.5 million / year) will be expanded again. The core throughout 2023 is price for quantity, focusing on mass production and yield climbing of 46 series large cylindrical batteries, Tesla, Inc. energy storage orders, forming catfish effect and promoting battery cost reduction and efficiency. In 2024, the focus will be the uplink cycle of the Tesla, Inc. model, and the Cybertruck will promote the discharge of 46 series large cylindrical batteries.

The main points of Everbright Securities are as follows:

Tesla, Inc. 's price reduction order exceeded expectations, direct catalyst.

Tesla, Inc. reported revenue and profit in the four seasons in 22 years, with a gross profit margin target of 20% in 23 years, which was better than market expectations. Tesla, Inc. 's global price reduction drove an increase in orders, with a 23-year sales target of 1.8 million vehicles +, an increase of more than 37%. After Tesla, Inc. cut prices around the world in January, orders increased rapidly, orders in China increased significantly, inventories in the United States decreased rapidly, and orders in January were twice as large as capacity.

The model cycle is downward, and 4680 starts the innovation cost reduction cycle.

The market expects that Tesla, Inc. 's price reduction will lead to a sharp rise in sales, but there is a marginal risk of weakening in the price-for-volume strategy. Tesla increases by 4680, becoming the focus of the current cycle of innovation. At the end of 22 years, the weekly production capacity of Tesla, Inc. 4680 battery exceeded 1000 / week (about 50, 000 / year), and the production of 100GWh (about 1.5 million / year) will be expanded again.

4680 the battery promotes the material system to be advanced to high nickel ternary 9 system + silicon-based negative electrode + oily coated diaphragm + LiFSI, and accelerates pre-plating nickel + 46 structural components + laser welding in terms of equipment technology. Due to the high degree of standardization, the 4680 battery can be used as a "structural battery" through integrated die casting.

Repressive factors, primary contradiction and rhythm

In the early stage, the market is worried that the price cuts of car companies will squeeze the profits of the supply chain and the processing fees brought about by the deterioration of the mid-stream competition pattern. The low valuation in the early stage has reflected the pessimistic expectations of the market, and this round of increase is mainly due to the repair of valuation with high certainty. And Tesla, Inc. industrial chain benefits from valuation repair and order volume promotion double-click, is 23 years with the main line of alpha, so leading the increase. And because of the subsidy of the IRA Act and the cost reduction of innovation, Tesla, Inc. has more room to trade the price for the quantity.

The core throughout 2023 is price for quantity, focusing on mass production and yield climbing of 46 series large cylindrical batteries, Tesla, Inc. energy storage orders, forming catfish effect and promoting battery cost reduction and efficiency. In 2024, the focus will be the uplink cycle of the Tesla, Inc. model, and the Cybertruck will promote the discharge of 46 series large cylindrical batteries.

Investment advice:

Tesla, Inc. 4680 industrial chain the bank is optimistic about the battery > the middle reaches:

(1) Battery LGES earnings guidelines are optimistic about battery profits, material cost reduction is greater than price reduction, optimistic about battery factories with a high proportion of energy storage, pay attention to Ningde era (300750.SZ) (Tesla, Inc. Lithium Phosphate and megapack), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) (46 series + energy storage).

(2) Mid-stream materials: the certainty of valuation repair is high, and the degree of repair depends on the next policy and favorable landing degree. The landing of processing fees is still suppressed in February, and it is necessary to observe the improvement of fundamentals brought about by follow-up orders in March and April. Considering the flexibility and pattern, we should pay attention to 002254.SZ, 002850.SZ, 300217.SZ, 002709.SZ, 300769.SZ, 688148.SH and 300073.SZ.

Risk analysis:Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, 4680 production progress and yield were lower than expected, the mid-stream competition pattern deteriorated, and profitability declined.

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