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德生科技(002908):公司业绩基本符合预期 社保衍生业务有望高增

Desheng Technology (002908): The company's performance is basically in line with expectations, and social security derivative business is expected to increase

國聯證券 ·  Jan 31, 2023 11:31  · Researches

Events:

During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 902.5733 million yuan and a net profit of 123.6954 million yuan. The net profit attributed to the shareholders of the listed company was 114.5589 million yuan, up 21.54%, 32.49% and 25.14% respectively over the same period last year.

The company's performance is basically in line with expectations

The company's performance in line with expectations is mainly due to the industry growth opportunities brought about by the upgrading of social security cards to "all-in-one card". The company continues to improve the "service-driven card issuance" business model in the field of resident service "all-in-one card". Effectively achieve the active card issuance model to land in many cities, and the number of cards issued for the whole year increased by 42.34% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the company helps many prefectures and cities to start digital scene construction, expand the application of resident service "all-in-one card" in transportation, medical care, social security, government affairs, epidemic prevention and control, and constantly promote the horizontal expansion and deepening of scene application, to realize the diversification of resident service "one card" application scenarios.

Renshe operation and big data business are expected to open the second growth curve of the company "Renshe Operation and big data Service" to make a continuous breakthrough. The revenue of this business increased by 146.37% over the same period last year, and the total amount of contracts signed for the whole year was 194.7695 million yuan, an increase of 139.91% over the same period last year. It reflects the company's leading advantage in the field of digital livelihood services. We believe that the company's three businesses: (1) based on big data's human resources operation services, (2) C-side intelligent customer service, and (3) social security financial services, will continue to innovate and help the company open the second growth curve.

Earnings forecast, valuation and rating

We estimate that the company's income in 2023-24 is 12.92 / 1.786 billion yuan, the corresponding growth rate is 43.17%, 38.20%, 1.65 / 224 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rate is 44.37%, 35.31%, 35.31%, 0.53 and 35.72, respectively, respectively. In view of the fact that the company, as a leading company in the social security field, is in the high-speed stage of the replacement of the third-generation social security card, we give the company 35 times PE for 23 years, with a target price of 18.9 yuan.

Risk hints: policy promotion is not as expected; market competition is intensified; hypothesis deviation risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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