Event: the company issued a performance forecast on January 19, predicting that the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 is 550 million yuan to 610 million yuan, an increase of 173.27% to 203.08% over the same period last year.
Comments: the delivery capacity is enhanced and the production efficiency is improved. According to the company announcement, the company's 2022H2 revenue increased by 93.58% year-on-year to about 408 million yuan. The reasons for the rapid growth of the company's performance are mainly the following four points: 1) the overall production and delivery of 2022H2 has increased steadily, and the production and sales volume have increased by 113.68% and 98.66% respectively compared with the same period last year; 2) the conversion rate of raw silk and the utilization rate of equipment have increased; 3) enjoy the relevant tax policies of high-tech enterprises and achieve tax incentives of more than 8000 yuan; 4) reasonable and efficient cash management, increased capital income.
Revenue hit a new high in a single quarter, and gross profit margin stabilized and rebounded. The company's Q4 revenue reached 204 million yuan, an increase of 83% over the same period last year, a new high for the company. In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters of 2022 was 62.25%, 75.07% and 77.97% respectively, and the gross profit margin was gradually repaired. Considering that the price of raw materials has fallen and gradually stabilized compared with the second half of 21, and the execution of large orders, the price of the agreed contract is stable, the company's gross profit margin is expected to be maintained.
The third phase of the project is progressing steadily, and the performance is expected in 2023. As of the third quarterly report, the civil construction of the third phase of the "production line with an annual output of 1500 tons of high-performance carbon fiber and fabric products" has been completed by 95%, and the signing rate of equipment order contracts has exceeded 95%. The new and old products of the third phase of the project have a clear application traction. According to this announcement, the construction quality progress of the new line of the third phase of the project is in line with expectations, which lays a solid foundation and guarantee for expanding the product supply scale and meeting the diversified needs of products in 2023.
The implementation of the equity incentive draft demonstrates the confidence of the company. The company issued the draft equity incentive in October 2022, and the number of category II restricted shares to be granted to the incentive object is 1.0918 million shares, accounting for 0.25% of the total share capital of the company on the date of announcement of the draft incentive plan. Among them, 873400 restricted shares are granted for the first time, and the grant price of restricted stock for the first time is 23.36 yuan per share.
For the first time, the assessment year is from 2022 to 2025. Based on revenue and net profit in 2021, the company's revenue growth target for 2022-2025 is not less than 70%, 250%, 300%, 380%, and the net profit growth target is not less than 115%, 250%, 350%, 470%. The performance unlocking condition corresponds to the high performance growth rate, which is conducive to arousing the enthusiasm of employees and demonstrating the company's confidence in medium-and long-term development.
Coverage for the first time, giving the company an "overweight" rating. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will reach 5.5,7.6 and 890 million yuan respectively, an increase of 172%, 39% and 17% over the same period last year, with corresponding valuations of 46, 33 and 28 times.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, valuation and profit forecast are not as expected.