Hot news

• Yellen: low inflation is a more likely long-term challenge for the US economy

Us Treasury Secretary Yellen declared in South Africa that persistent weak inflation could once again become a long-term challenge for the US economy and policy makers once the distortions that caused the surge in prices subside and price pressures cool. "We are in an extraordinarily difficult period, but I don't think we will go back to the way we were in the 1970s and 1980s," she said. Prices and wages in the United States both rose in 1970 and 1980s. Although the Fed still has a long way to go to contain the worst inflation in decades, as the price rise cools, the debate now turns to what might happen after the anti-inflation task is completed.

• Morgan Stanley strategist: investors should stop chasing gains and avoid turning against the Federal Reserve.

Morgan Stanley strategists say investors racing to catch up will be disappointed because they are directly at odds with the Fed. The improvement in stock price behaviour has begun to convince many investors that they are missing something, forcing them to participate more actively. We believe that recent price behavior more reflects the seasonal effects of January and the short covering after a difficult end of December and a brutal year. In fact, earnings are weaker than expected, especially in terms of profit margins. Second, investors seem to have forgotten the basic rule of 'don't fight the Fed'. Maybe this week will serve as a reminder.

• Xiaomo said that the big rally in US stocks at the beginning of the year will fade, and the risk of recession will be postponed rather than gone away.

JPMorgan Chase & Co strategist Marko Kolanovic believes that U. S. stock market investors should move against the trend, because he believes that as the risk of recession intensifies, stock prices may fall in the coming months. After the stock market rebounded in early 2023, "the recession risk is delayed, not gone," a team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "the fundamentals of the next rally may not be there, but the market may suffer from weak earnings, activity and capital spending." Kolanovic reiterated the view made by JPMorgan Chase & Co's Mislav Matejka on Sunday that there are still downside risks in the stock market, as the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high for some time as the economy slows and corporate profits fall.

• HSBC Investment Management expects the US economic downturn to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier, possibly by 100 basis points this year.

HSBC Investment Management believes that as the US economy shows signs of recession, the Fed will change its stance and cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the money markets expected this year. Joe Little, the company's chief global strategist, said the Fed could cut interest rates by 100bp by the end of the year, double the 50 basis points currently absorbed by US interest rate swaps. He also thinks it is possible to cut by another 200 basis points in 2024.

• Morgan Stanley: Monday's plunge in the Hong Kong stock market provides a bargain-hunting opportunity.

Morgan Stanley believes that Monday's plunge in the Hong Kong stock market provides an "opportunity" and advises investors to take advantage of bargains. "We continue to maintain the overweight rating of Chinese stocks and take advantage of the current opportunity to recommend bargain buying," said Wang Jie, chief China market strategist at Morgan Stanley.

• Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone before this week's important advisory meeting, and OPEC+ may continue to stand still.

Putin and the Saudi crown prince discussed cooperation within the OPEC+ to ensure stable oil prices, the Kremlin said in a statement. In addition, Imperial Commercial Bank of Canada said that given the uncertainty of the recovery in oil demand and the global economic slowdown, OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (JMMC) was unlikely to recommend a change in production policy at its meeting on Wednesday.

• Russia bans oil exports to buyers who abide by Western oil price caps

According to a decree issued on Monday, the Russian government has banned the sale of oil to any buyer who complies with the price-fixing mechanism introduced by Western countries. Companies must keep a close eye on export contracts to ensure that the oil price ceiling is not mentioned in the wording and that counterparties do not use the price limit mechanism when reselling to end customers. According to this decree, the customs department of the Russian Federation has the right to prohibit the export of oil in the event of violations.

• The global nickel industry is facing another storm, the second largest nickel supplier plans to restrict raw ore exports

The Philippine government is considering taxing nickel ore exports to attract investment in its domestic nickel processing industry. "in the nickel supply chain, we want to be not just an exporter of raw ores, we want to be part of the value chain," Antonia Yulo-Loisaga, secretary of the Philippine Department of Environment (DENR), told the media on Monday. According to the US Geological Survey, the Philippines produced 334000 tons of nickel in 2020, second only to Indonesia and among the highest in global reserves.

Review of US stocks

• The threat of "Super Central Bank week" first emerged, with the collective decline of the three major stock indexes and the adjustment of Chinese stocks.

Us stocks collectively weakened overnight at the start of this year's first "super central bank week". By Monday's close, the S & P 500 was down 1.30%, the NASDAQ was down 1.96%, and the Dow was down 0.77%. Large-scale technology stocks fell by 2.01%, Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc-CL C-A, Amazon.Com Inc and Tesla, Inc. fell 2.01%, 2.20%, 2.45%, 1.65% and 6.32% respectively. Chinese stocks also adjusted, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing down 4.10%. In terms of individual stocks, Tencent ADR fell 6.74%, JD.com fell 6.13%, BABA fell 6.07%, and NIO Inc. fell 5.43%.

• Ford announces that electric Mustang Mach-E will join the price reduction war.

$Ford Motor (F.US)$The price of its electric Mustang Mach-E will be cut by $6 billion to $5900, with some models falling by as much as 8.8%, it was announced on Monday. As a counterbid to Tesla, Inc. Model Y, the adjusted price of the Ford Electric Mustang Mach-E is between $46000 and $64000. Car owners currently waiting for delivery will automatically enjoy a discount, and the company will contact customers who pick up the car after January 1 this year.

• Moderna Inc's RSV Vaccine was confirmed by FDA Breakthrough Therapy

$Moderna (MRNA.US)$The company's experimental respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for breakthrough therapy, it said on Monday. Moderna Inc said he planned to apply for approval in the first half of this year. The stock is up 18.7% over the past year, while the s & p 500 is down 4.3% over the same period.

• Johnson & Johnson's "golden cicada out of shell" strategy was rejected by the court.

On Monday, local time, the United States third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$The company cannot resolve more than 40,000 lawsuits involving baby talcum powder causing cancer by stripping off tort liability. In order to settle the ongoing litigation, Johnson & Johnson carried out a split in 2021, transferring tort liability to LTL and injecting nearly $2 billion, while the rest of the assets were loaded into the "new Johnson & Johnson" company. Johnson & Johnson has said it will appeal, and if the Pennsylvania High Court continues to reject the company's application in the next step, the case may eventually be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. Johnson & Johnson closed down 3.7 per cent on Monday on news of the verdict.

• Business is so good! Boeing Co plans to add 737 Max production line

According to media reports citing internal letters from the company, in order to meet the exuberant demand of the market$Boeing (BA.US)$There are plans to add a fourth 737 Max production line to the Everett plant in Washington. The company currently produces 31 737 Max models per month, and the company plans to increase that number to 50 by 2025 / 2026. In an announcement last week, Boeing Co also announced plans to recruit 10, 000 workers this year.

• T-Mobile sets a goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2040

T-Mobile US Inc. It said it had set a goal of achieving net zero emissions from its carbon footprint by 2040 and signed a "climate commitment". T-Mobile said it was the first US wireless company to set a net zero target for all three emission ranges, which has been verified by the Scientific carbon Target Initiative using its net zero standard. The target covers emission ranges 1 and 2, including direct emissions from T-Mobile operations and facilities, as well as indirect emissions from the purchase of electricity.

• Paramount announces streaming brand integration and will start layoffs

American Film production and Distribution Company$Paramount Global-B (PARA.US)$The company's Showtime cable network will be renamed and its streaming service will be merged into Paramount+ later this year. On traditional televisions, Showtime will now use the latest name "Paramount+with Showtime", while the paid value-added services of Paramount+ streaming services will also use the same brand name. Paramount executives also revealed that the company will lay off staff and adjust the show as part of the brand shake-up.

• AI concept stocks continue to tremble

After the concept boom triggered by ChatGPT last week, artificial intelligence service concept stocks continued to fluctuate sharply on Monday. The American version of Jinri Toutiao$Buzzfeed (BZFD.US)$It closed down 29.20% on Monday after surging 300% last week. Big data Industry Analysis Company$C3.ai (AI.US)$Also down 8.27%, but music recognition software$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$Share prices bucked the trend and rose to 13.81% in late trading.

• Guo Mingfu's latest revelation: the folding screen iPad will be released in 2024.

Guo Mingyi, a technology analyst, said on social media on Monday.$Apple (AAPL.US)$The iPad product line will slow down the pace of new product release in 2023, and the "folding screen iPad", which carries the change of product shape, will be launched in 2024. As a result, iPad shipments in 2023 are likely to fall by 10% Mur15% year-on-year and pick up with new products on the market in 2024.

Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• Tencent is on sale in Beishui for nearly 3.7 billion Hong Kong dollars! Against the trend to increase the position of Meituan

On Monday, January 30th, the southbound capital sold a net HK $6.904 billion of Hong Kong shares. Tencent, China Construction Bank Corporation and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing received a net sale of HK $3.687 billion, HK $983 million and HK $437 million respectively, while Meituan-W, China Mobile Limited and Shangtang-W made a net purchase of HK $839 million, HK $458 million and HK $454 million respectively.

Keywords: China's official manufacturing PMI in January, Chicago PMI in January, General Motors Co / Pfizer Inc / Exxon Mobil Corp / AMD/Snap financial report

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, China will release the official manufacturing PMI in January, while the United States will release macro data such as the quarterly rate of the labor cost index in the fourth quarter, the PMI in Chicago in January, the Conference Board Consumer confidence Index in January and the monthly rate of the FHFA house price index in the United States.

The market now expects Chicago's PMI to be 45.3 in January, roughly the same as the previous figure of 45.1. The index has fallen below 50 for the fourth time in a row, indicating a contraction in the economy.

In addition, Powell's "new favorite", the quarterly rate of the US Labor cost Index, will be released at 21:30. Since 2022, ECI has been repeatedly mentioned by Powell as one of the reference indicators of inflation, and it has become one of the important data affecting the restrictive policy stance of the Federal Reserve.

In terms of financial results, US stocks$General Motors (GM.US)$、$McDonald's (MCD.US)$、$Pfizer (PFE.US)$、$United Parcel Service (UPS.US)$、$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Release the new earnings report before the US stock market trading on the same day.$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$、$Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$The new earnings report will be released after the US stock market trading on the same day.

Niuniu morning reading:

I always don't care about the rise and fall of the market. I only care about whether there are any companies in the market that meet my investment standards.

-- Jim Rogers

Edit / irisz