This report is read as follows:
Net profit is expected to grow by 30% to 50% year-on-year in 2022. Heavy pollution industry emission points and state-controlled environmental sites monitor demand, driving the company's performance to exceed expectations. At the same time, high-precision analytical instruments are expected to reevaluate the value of the company.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. According to the company's performance forecast, we have raised the company's net profit forecast for 2022-2024 to 462 million yuan (the original 2.66 plus 3.51 million), and the corresponding EPS to 0.46, 0.60, 0.73 (the original 0.42, 0.56). Maintain the target price of 11.34 yuan.
In 2022, net profit increased by 30%, 50% compared with the same period last year, and the performance exceeded expectations. According to the company's performance forecast, the company's attributable net profit is expected to be 2.88 to 333 million yuan in 2022, an increase of 30% to 50% over the same period last year, while the company deducts non-attributable net profit of 2.42 to 286 million yuan, an increase of 43% to 69% over the same period last year.
The ultra-low emission transformation of the heavy pollution industry has been continuously promoted, the fineness of the state-controlled environmental monitoring network has been improved, and the demand for accelerated environmental monitoring has driven the company's high performance. 1) as the control of air pollution in China has not yet reached an inflection point, following the thermal power industry, iron and steel, cement and other high emission industries have begun to accelerate the transformation of ultra-low emissions. At the same time, thermal power "three changes linkage" and "three 80 million installed capacity" and other industry reforms also further release the monitoring demand of industrial pollution source emission points. 2) the fineness of China's state-controlled environmental monitoring network has been improved, and the demand for monitoring equipment and operation and maintenance services of incremental state-controlled sites has been increased. Relying on the leading advantages of environmental monitoring equipment and operation and maintenance services, the company has expanded the industrial pollution source flue gas on-line monitoring system (CEMS) and the business orders of state-controlled environmental atmosphere and water quality monitoring stations, driving high performance growth.
High-precision equipment to expand the market for high-end analytical instruments, the company is expected to revalue. 1) the detection limit of subsidiary Orthodyne gas chromatography can reach ppb level, and the technology is approved by the manufacturer of special gas faucet and terminal electronic faucet. 2) the subsidiary Kore has mastered the core technology of ion exchange time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and the advantages of high sensitivity and low detection limit have been used in laboratory, industrial process analysis and other scenarios. The company is expected to enter the high-end instrument application market, and high business barriers are expected to create value revaluation opportunities.
Risk hints: the risk of technical iteration, the lower-than-expected emission reduction and transformation, and the risk of accounts receivable recovery.