The performance is high, and the 22-year net profit is expected to increase by 30.4% compared with the same period last year. The company forecasts that the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 is 130 million, an increase of 303.9%; net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses is 120 million yuan, an increase of 538.7% over the same period last year. We estimate that the EPS for 22-24 will be 0.67, 1.37, and 1.94 times for 22-24, compared with the average PE of 23-year Wind for 28 times, taking into account the high barriers of the company's products and its own high growth, enjoy a certain valuation premium of 40 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to the target price of 54.80 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The order for special parts for deep-sea oil and gas has made repeated breakthroughs, realizing the upgrading of "parts" to "parts". The company has made repeated breakthroughs in deep-sea business and upgraded from "parts" orders to "parts" orders. The proportion of orders for high value-added products continues to increase, and as of 22H1, it has undertaken a total of 175 special parts for deep-sea oil and gas projects. Among them, the "deep-sea connector" batch order products applied to 3000 meters underwater in Brazilian waters have been delivered to customers one after another, and have signed a long-term supply agreement with customers. Under the general trend of component standardization, deep-sea customers will gradually identify core suppliers and expand their supply scope in the future. The company has been included in the TechnipFMC product standardization version 2.0 supplier to jointly develop the deep sea 2.0 standard.
At the same time, it was selected as one of the core suppliers of Schlumberge25 and became the only one of the 25 companies to provide oil and gas forgings.
Surfacing welding and multi-directional die forging go hand in hand, and the technical strength of key parts will be globally competitive. The company will extend to the industrial chain from the starting point of the forging process, gradually covering high value-added production links. Prior to this, the Ni-based alloy surfacing project has started formal order operations, initially forming the overall surfacing technology and deep processing manufacturing capacity. At the same time, the company deeply ploughs multi-directional die forging technology and creates technical advantages. Die forging technology can realize the forming of hollow parts with complex shape by one extrusion, greatly save materials, and further improve the production capacity of the company's batch precision special parts. After the completion of the relevant fund-raising projects, the business will complement each other with the current small batch customized production, and the equipment intelligence and technical strength of the company's key parts will have global competitiveness.
Product high barrier + self-high growth, maintain "buy" rating according to the performance forecast, we appropriately downgrade the company's 2022 performance forecast, 2022Q4 is mainly affected by short-term factors such as epidemic prevention and control optimization, so basically maintain the previous forecast of 2023 and 2024. It is estimated that the net profit of homing from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.31 PE 2.660 million yuan (the previous value is 1.43 million yuan 2.67 / 377 million yuan), which is 42% compared with the same period last year and 28 times the average value of the company's 23-year Wind consensus forecast. Considering the high barriers of the company's products and its high growth, it enjoys a certain valuation premium and gives the company a target price of 40 times PE for 23 years, maintaining the target price of 54.80 yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: upstream oil and gas enterprises' capital expenditure has declined; the competition pattern of deep-sea equipment has deteriorated; and raw material costs have risen higher than expected.