Core ideas:
Event: the company issued a forecast for the year 2022. The company expects to achieve revenue of 1.42 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of about 33%. The net profit of returning to the mother is-45.85 million yuan to-56.85 million yuan, down 142% from the same period last year. The net profit of non-returning to the mother is-58 million yuan to-69 million yuan, down 235% from the same period last year. Among them, the estimated income of 22Q4 is 350 million yuan, an increase of 5%, and the net profit of returning mother is-7185 yuan to-8285 yuan, down 399% from the same period last year. The performance fell short of market expectations.
Shipments continued to increase, and production capacity was put into active use. The company expects the revenue of the film business in 2022 to be about 729 million yuan, an increase of about 125%, of which 22Q4 film revenue is expected to be 184 million yuan, an increase of 41%. Shipments of photovoltaic film for the whole year in 22 are expected to be about 6400 million square meters, with an increase of 142 percent, with an increase of 142 percent, and with an increase of about 2000 million square meters, an increase of 129 percent, and a month-on-month increase of + 7 percent. Although in 22Q4 due to the impact of downstream component manufacturers destocking, the film industry shipments are generally insipid, but the company still continues high growth, the growth rate is significantly faster than the industry leader, indicating that the company is accelerating production capacity and downstream customer introduction, promoting a rapid increase in share. Looking forward to 23 years, the company is speeding up the landing of additional investment projects, of which the Kunshan base was completed at the end of 22, and if the east base is expected to be completed in mid-23, the production capacity is expected to increase to 350 million square meters by the end of 23, with an increase of 119%, and shipments are expected to reach 1.6-200 million square meters. With an increase of 150% Mel 213%, second-line film leader shipments are expected to maintain a strong momentum.
Bottom profit, waiting to be repaired. Due to the rapid decline in the price of 22Q4 EVA particles led to a decline in film prices, and the company 22Q3 high-price inventory deferred to 22Q4, resulting in the company facing high costs and low prices, seriously damaged profits, the company is expected to 22Q4 flat net profit is still in a state of loss. Looking forward to 23 years, POE particles are in short supply throughout the year, and particle prices are expected to continue to rise, leading to an increase in the average price of POE and EPE films. The company expects that the combined share of POE and EPE films in 23 years will increase to 30% 40%, and the product structure will be further optimized. At the same time, with the clearance of high-price inventory and downstream demand, 23-year film profitability is expected to be better repaired.
Profit forecast: as a second-line film leader, the company is in the pace of rapidly putting in production capacity and opening up customers, superimposing its own excellent cost control ability, shipping and profitability are expected to be further improved. We expect the company to achieve a return net profit of-0.49 / 2.84 / 338 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to-/ 17 / 14 times PE. First coverage, giving 2023 earnings 25 times PE valuation, target price of 21.30 yuan, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream customer development is not as expected, profit forecast and valuation judgment is not as expected