The company predicts that it will achieve a net loss of 4585-56.85 million yuan in 2022. The company issues a performance forecast for 2022, with an estimated income of 1.42 billion yuan, an increase of 33%. The net loss after deducting non-net profit is 5800-69 million yuan (42.85 million yuan after deducting non-net profit in 2021). According to our median estimate, 4Q22 income reached 346 million yuan, an increase of 5.2%, and a net loss of 7771 million yuan, which is lower than market expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
1. The price of 2H22 silicon material is running high, the impairment of inventory particles is a drag on business performance, and the demand of the industry has rebounded in the past 23 years. The company announced that in 22 years, the company's photovoltaic film revenue is expected to increase by about 125%. We estimate that Q4 is expected to increase by 41%. Under the influence of high silicon prices and low downstream start-up, the company is still achieving rapid growth under the pressure of demand in the photovoltaic film industry. Due to the EVA particle 2H22 price decline of more than 50%, the company's photovoltaic film product raw material inventory price is high and the corresponding inventory impairment results in impaired performance. With the expansion of silicon supply and the rapid decline in prices in 23 years, we expect the operating rate of downstream components and the demand for photovoltaic film to pick up significantly, and the company's profitability is also expected to be repaired.
2. The smooth issuance of Dingzeng helps the rapid expansion of production capacity, which is expected to support the rapid growth of the company in the medium and long term. The fixed increase of the company has been issued smoothly, with a total fund-raising amount of 986 million yuan. Fund-raising project is proposed to add EVA/ white efficiency EVA/POE and EPE film production lines in 32-7-21, we estimate that the company's annual photovoltaic film production capacity is expected to increase rapidly from the current 160 million square meters to 3.5 million square meters in 2023 and 2024, and the proportion of film production such as POE has increased significantly.
3, 23 years new customers are expected to introduce smoothly, POE and other particles are expected to get a stable supply. 1) customer:
We expect that the company is expected to expand the share of existing customers such as Zhengtai and a new energy, while actively opening up industry-leading customers, is expected to gradually enter its supply chain, after the completion of the fixed increase, the company's industrial resources may also be enhanced, and the industry share is expected to increase rapidly in the medium to long term; 2) particles: the company has a long-term and stable cooperation with overseas particle suppliers such as LG, and we expect that particles such as POE will be in stable supply in 23 years.
4. The company's photovoltaic film business has a high growth period of 23 years, and is expected to become the first echelon of the industry in the medium and long term. We believe that the company's production technology and product quality occupy the leading level in the industry, and the head customers are introduced smoothly and the production capacity is expanded rapidly after landing. It is expected to successfully undertake the continuous good industry demand and expand market share, and it is expected to enter a period of rapid growth in 23 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the inventory impairment of the company's high-priced particle inventory, the 22-year homing net profit was reduced to-46 million yuan, keeping the 23-year profit forecast unchanged, and the 24-year homing net profit of 411 million yuan was introduced. The current stock price corresponds to the 23-pound 24-year 22-pound 12 times Pmax E, keeping the outperform industry rating and target price 18 yuan unchanged, and corresponding to 23 24-year 2715 times Pxue E, which has 25% upward space compared with the current stock price.
Risk.
Terminal demand is lower than expected; raw material prices fluctuate; operating cash flow is under pressure.
