On January 30, the new energy vehicle sector opened with a strong rise. Ningde times rose 8.53% in intraday trading, BYD rose nearly 6%, smart electric car ETF, battery leader ETF, smart tram ETF, smart car 50ETF, battery ETF, smart tram ETF, lithium battery ETF, new energy car ETF rose more than 4%.
On the news side, a number of new energy car stores "Spring Festival" are popular.
Tesla, Inc. 's share price soared during the A-share Spring Festival holiday, rising 33.32% this week, the biggest weekly gain since May 2013. From the bottom of $101.81 per share on January 6th, it has soared 75% in 15 trading days, with the latest market capitalization of 561.764 billion, ranking seventh among the world's listed companies.
Under the continuous price reduction strategy, Tesla, Inc. 's sales increased greatly in the fourth quarter. For the whole of 2022, Tesla, Inc. achieved revenue of US $81.462 billion, up 51% from the same period last year, and net profit of US $12.556 billion, up 128% from the same period last year. It means that Tesla, Inc. will earn about 233 million yuan a day in 2022. In terms of delivery, Tesla, Inc. produced more than 439700 cars and delivered more than 405300 vehicles worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2022, a record high, but still slightly below Wall Street's previous forecast of 429000 deliveries. According to full-year data, Tesla, Inc. 's production in 2022 was 1.3696 million vehicles, an increase of 47 per cent year-on-year, and delivery volume was 1.3139 million vehicles, an increase of 40 per cent year-on-year. The price cut led to an increase in sales and a decline in gross profit margin. Tesla, Inc. 's gross profit margin fell to 25.9% from 32.9% in the first quarter of 2022, according to fourth-quarter results. Looking ahead to 2023, Musk said that although the overall car market is likely to contract, consumer demand for Tesla, Inc. will remain good, with annual delivery expected to reach 1.8 million vehicles.
From the perspective of domestic new energy vehicle fundamentals, domestic new energy vehicles continued to grow explosively in 2022, with production and sales of 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively, an increase of 96.9% and 93.4% respectively over the same period last year, with a market share of 25.6%, higher than 12.1% in 2021.
Among them, in December 2022, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 795000 and 814000 respectively, an increase of 51.8 percent over the same period last year, with a market share of 31.8 percent; pure electric vehicle sales of 624000, an increase of 37.7 percent over the same period last year; and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales of 189000, up 129.2 percent from the same period last year.
According to the official account of the China Automobile Association, according to statistics and analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2022, automobile enterprises exported 3.111 million vehicles, an increase of 54.4 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, 2.529 million passenger cars were exported, an increase of 56.7 percent over the same period last year. The export of commercial vehicles was 582000, up 44.9% from the same period last year. The export of new energy vehicles was 679000, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year.
In 2022, automobile exports continue to maintain a high level, repeatedly setting monthly record highs. Since August, the average monthly export volume has exceeded 300000, and the annual export has exceeded 3 million, effectively driving the growth of the industry as a whole.
Chinese auto companies have been actively participating in European auto shows since the beginning of the 21st century, Bloomberg reported. According to Eurostat, Chinese car exports did not usher in a watershed year until 2021, when Chinese exports to the European Union surged 156 per cent to 435000 vehicles. In 2022, China's automobile exports will continue to grow on this basis.
Some analysts believe that the growth of China's automobile exports is due to the high penetration of new energy vehicles and the high quality and low price of Chinese cars. High and low prices are one of the reasons why Chinese cars are popular overseas, Bloomberg reported.
McKinsey, a global management consultancy, pointed out in the 2023 McKinsey China Consumer Insight report that in recent years, new brands have been pouring into the Chinese automobile market, and traditional automakers have also launched new brands one after another. while the number of new brands continues to expand, the old pattern is quietly changing: in the past three years, 15 new brands have entered the house one after another, while 12 old brands have become "heroes". What is more noteworthy is that the recognition of Chinese brands in the field of electric vehicles is much higher than that in the field of fuel vehicles: in the field of electric vehicles, there are four Chinese car companies in the top five of the brand recognition list, but in the field of fuel vehicles, Chinese car companies are not in the top five.
Guan Mingyu, global managing partner of McKinsey, pointed out that it is time to reshape the auto landscape: "in the era of fuel cars, consumers were willing to pay a certain premium for joint venture brands and foreign brands, but in the era of electric cars, more than half of consumers do not think it is necessary to pay a higher premium for international brands. This is because the current local new forces have also brought a lot of innovation, which proves that in the minds of consumers, the era of smart electric vehicles has drawn a very clear dividing line from the era of fuel vehicles, which has been developed for 100 years. "
In terms of funds, northbound funds are also adding to new energy stocks. Northbound funds have become the main buyers since the beginning of 2023, with a cumulative net purchase of 112.5 billion yuan in the first 14 trading days of 2023, greatly exceeding the net inflow of 90 billion in 2022.From January 3 to January 20, 2023, the stock that the north bought the most was the Ningde era, which bought 8.394 billion.
In 2022, new energy-related ETF generally fell by nearly 30% for the whole year, which is a year of killing valuations.
What do you think of new energy industry in 2023?
Some fund managers said that the situation of the new energy industry in 2023 is different from that in 2021. Because the growth rate is particularly fast in 2021, the market can give a high valuation. The growth rate has dropped to 40% now, and then it may drop to 30% in the future. The growth rate is indeed the next level than that in 2020 and 2021, and the whole valuation is not as high as before. Do not expect the stock valuation of new energy vehicles to return to the high valuation of 2021 in the future. This is not realistic, it is relatively reasonable valuation, and then rely on performance growth to make money.
In terms of lithium batteries, although the market is still worried about the growth of domestic sales in 2023, we see more and more car companies accelerate to embrace new energy vehicles, consumers have more choices, Cui Yulong said in the 2022 four Seasons report. The competitiveness of new energy vehicles compared with traditional fuel vehicles is further enhanced. At the same time, the energy storage market will continue to break out, large-scale energy storage at home and abroad will grow, and household energy storage in Europe, the United States and other overseas countries will probably maintain rapid growth, and these applications will maintain the growth of demand for lithium batteries. Green power operators benefit from the above photovoltaic and lithium battery cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the cost of investment in the power plant will gradually decline, and the rate of return will enter the upward cycle. It is expected that the above three main positive directions will continue to maintain profit growth in 2023, and the scale of the industry will expand rapidly.
